Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
MON MAY 24 2010

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION…
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN A LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
MORNING…PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY EXIST IN THIS LAYER…BUT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT SEEN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON…ENHANCING LIFT. IN ADDITION…THE WARM AIR CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR…SOME ISOLATED HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY OCCUR.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER…GIVEN THAT FLOW WILL BE WEAK…SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

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