“A Milder and Wetter Summer Possible for Oklahoma” by Gary McManus

A Milder and Wetter Summer Possible for Oklahoma

Gary McManus

Associate State Climatologist

Oklahoma Climatological Survey

After the turbulent weather of the previous two weeks, it appears Oklahoma is going to get a

break from Mother Nature. Based upon preliminary numbers from the National Weather

Service, Oklahoma has experienced more than 50 tornadoes since May 10. The state also saw

numerous types of other severe weather during that period, including possibly the worst

hailstorm to have ever struck Oklahoma City. Now, thanks to a forecast upper-level ridge, the

state could be shifting into a more summer-like pattern.

The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate an increased

possibility of above-normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks to go along with an

increased chance of below-normal rainfall. The CPC’s outlooks do not indicate how much

warmer or drier the weather could be compared to normal, only that an increased possibility

for both exists through June 3.

The CPC outlooks for the June-August summer period see different processes come into play.

The most important driver of Oklahoma’s climate during summer appears to be the high soil

moisture content currently in place thanks to the heavy rains of the last couple of weeks. Moist

soils can feed convective systems through evaporation, and that evaporation helps to cool the

surface. The summer outlooks reflect that with an increased chance of a wetter and cooler

weather.

Looking even farther out, it appears more and more likely that La Niña conditions will develop

in the equatorial pacific this fall and last throughout winter. While that can mean drier and

warmer weather for the state, the influence will be much more important for points south of

Oklahoma. The strong El Niño that helped bring the state a cool and wet winter has all but

disappeared.

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