Thunderstorm outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT… HOWEVER THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SMALL.

DISCUSSION…
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE HEELS OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING… THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
ALOFT. THE PRESENCE OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ONCE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG… THE
PRESENCE OF ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES… PLUS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MORE ELEVATED STORMS AT THAT TIME… WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER… AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD STILL
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING 
CONDITIONS.. ESPECIALLY ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PLEASE SEE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE… AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE DAY… A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

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