National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas: Winter weather impact statement

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TEXAS
 MON NOV 30 2009

…WINTER WEATHER IMPACT STATEMENT…

VALID THROUGH:

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 2 2009

WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED:

MAINLY SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY…ALTHOUGH A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN…SNOW AND SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFFECTED AREA:

THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE OR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY. LIGHTER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER THOUGH.

FORECAST TIMING OF EVENT:

A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER…COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING THE
LAST FEW SNOW FLAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS:

ON TUESDAY MORNING…ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
VERY LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION…NORTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY ALSO CREATE SLICK ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. US HIGHWAY 60…INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE
27 WILL BR THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THE SLICK ROADS.

DISCUSSION:

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOIST AIR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH THE PANHANDLES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TUESDAY MORNING MAY
CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
COLDER AIR TO THE PANHANDLES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE EAST LEAVING THE PANHANDLES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE. WHEN THE COLD AIR FROM THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST
AIR FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM…THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED…
THEN THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES. HOWEVER…THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND THUS ONLY PROVIDE 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PANHANDLE LOCATIONS.

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