Hazardous weather outlook

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE… TO DAVIS…
TO ARDMORE AND MARIETTA.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON… POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.

IMPACTS…
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR CONTINUING SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE FRONT…
AND THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS… WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID EVENING.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS
LONG AS THE LINE OF STORMS REMAINS SOLID… BUT IF THE LINE BREAKS
UP INTO SEVERAL SEGMENTS OR A SERIES OF DISCRETE STORMS… THE
TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY FORM OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE… AND THESE STORMS ALSO WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION AND THEREFORE COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY OCT 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…60  PERCENT

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

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