Hazardous weather outlook
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY…
WILL DIVE WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL LEAVE DRY…CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS…BENEATH A RELATIVELY INACTIVE JET STREAM.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FROST COULD FORM
TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
Preliminary October weather information, Oklahoma Mesonet (as of Thursday night)
- Statewide average precipitation total of 6.93 inches, 3.75 inches above normal
- 5th wettest october since 1895
- behind 1941 (11.32 inches), 1923, 1919, and 1981
- 1981 was due to the remains of Hurricane Norma
- the Southeast had 12.38 inches on average in Oct 2009
- 7.65 inches above normal
- 2nd wettest october on record for them
- behind 12.62 inches in 1984
- Central Oklahoma had 4.58 inches, 2.16 inches above normal
- 24th wettest on record
- 1941 was wettest with 13.51 inches
- Broken Bow Mesonet site led the way with 15.4 inches of rainfall (normal of 5.1 inches, so 10.3 inches above normal)
- Hollis had the least with 1.9 inches (normal is 2.4, so 0.5 below normal)
Temperature (PRELIMINARY DATA FROM MESONET!)
- Statewide average temperature of 56.8 degrees, 4.7 degrees below normal
- 8th coolest on record since 1895 (1925 coolest at 54.4 degrees)
- Statewide averaged high temperatures = 66.7 degrees, 7.9 degrees below normal
- Statewide averaged low temperatures = 46.9 degrees, 1.4 degrees below normal
- therefore, it wasn’t overly cold in the mornings, more cool weather in afternoons (i.e. lack of afternoon warmth) that gave us our cool month.
- Lots of clouds and rain really sapped that afternoon warmth
- Highest temperature of the month was 92 degrees at Beaver Mesonet on the 19th
- Coolest was 24 degrees at Kenton and Boise City on the 10th
- Lowest wind chill was 14 degrees at Boise City and Kenton on the 10th
In Texas panhandle: Sleet and snow possible some areas.
NOW…
A BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW NEAR MCLEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 8 PM. THE SLEET AND SNOW MAY BECOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MCLEAN AND SHAMROCK ALONG
INTERSTATE 40. ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND SNOW MAY BRIEFLY COVER THE
GROUND…LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SLEET AND SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD REACH NEAR SHAMROCK BY 8 PM. ELSEWHERE….
LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGGINS TO
WELLINGTON LINE. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 8 PM AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
Rainy days
The following is from Gary McManus of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey:
October 2009 has been exceedingly wet for Oklahoma, and with rain still falling in the east, the statewide average rainfall total for October 1 through, well … 5 minutes ago, stood at 6.83 inches. That total places the month thus far in 3rd place for wettest October 1-29 periods since 1921.
Here are the October totals (for October 1-31) that are ahead of us:
1941 — 11.32 inches
1923 — 8.91 inches
1919 — 7.27 inches
1981 — 7.10 inches
So it looks like we’re going to finish with the 4th or 5th wettest October on record in 2009, with a slim shot at #3.
Oklahoma City, rainfall record for this date
RECORD MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION RECORD BROKEN AT OKLAHOMA CITY…
THE MAXIMUM RECORD PRECIPITATION AT OKLAHOMA CITY FOR THIS DATE WAS
1.61 INCHES… WHICH OCCURRED BACK IN 1941. SO FAR AT WILL ROGERS
WORLD AIRPORT… 1.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MEASURED…
WHICH HAS BROKEN THE RECORD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FINAL REPORT WILL BE ISSUED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
WEATHER RECORDS FOR OKLAHOMA CITY DATE BACK TO 1891
Oklahoma Panhandle
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT…GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
Hazardous weather outlook
From National Weather Service, Tulsa:
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…SIGNIFICANT.
AREA…EAST OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO OKMULGEE.
ONSET…ONGOING.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING.
DISCUSSION…
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA…AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON…MAKING THIS AREA
THE MOST FAVORED FOR THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
FURTHER NORTH…LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE
OF SEVERE WEATHER MORE ISOLATED. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE AREA WIDE PRODUCING SCATTERED AREAS OF
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA. THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR
AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE…WHICH AGAIN
FAVORS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHICH MAY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RISK OF STORM ROTATION.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAY YET OCCUR…
HOWEVER LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE ENCOURAGED TO ACTIVATE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Severe thunderstorm warning: Muskogee, Okmulgee, McIntosh Counties
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT
* AT 1225 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOFFMAN…
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE…COUNCIL
HILL…CHECOTAH…RENTIESVILLE…BOYNTON…OKTAHA…HASKELL…
KEEFETON AND TAFT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM…BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Rainfall. Oklahoma Mesonet, 12:25 p.m., Since midnight
Vanoss, southeast, 2.62 inches
Pawnee, north central, 2.59 inches
Bowlegs, eastern, 2.45 inches
Tornado watch: Atoka, Bryan, Coal Counties until 6 p.m.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 781 UNTIL
6 PM CDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS
IN OKLAHOMA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ATOKA BRYAN COAL
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ATOKA…COALGATE AND DURANT.
