Update: Hazardous weather outlook (includes this evening and the next few days. Please don’t forget to look at Thursday)
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THROUGH TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. FEW ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
DISCUSSION…
WHILE A DRYLINE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING…AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF A LESS
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER A FEW MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY OCT 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT… WHICH WILL
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BY EARLY IN THE DAY… WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING THURSDAY
MORNING… MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON… THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE INTENSE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
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