Hazardous weather outlook

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION…
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAD DELAYED
HEATING…BUT SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES REMAINED FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM STILLWATER TO WICHITA FALLS AT MIDDAY…WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S…CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE WEAK FRONT…INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE…
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO LIKELY. A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL LIFT…NEAR CLOUD BASE…WILL
LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SECOND REGION OF INTEREST WILL BE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA…GENERALLY
FROM WOODWARD DOWN TO ELK CITY AND MANGUM. LIFT AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE MORE CONSISTENT IN THAT REGION…AND DESPITE BEING
LOCATED BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT…RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY…AND A
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM…WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST…
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…25 PERCENT.

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