Hazardous weather outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THROUGH TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST…INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY SEP 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…10 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE…
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY EXPAND ON THURSDAY WHEN THE DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN…AND THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. BUT MODERATE WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION…AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH THE SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM.
45 degrees last night at Nowata
We’re still in August and yet Nowata had a low of 45 degrees since midnight.
Short-term forecast as of 8 a.m.
…REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A CHEROKEE… TO WEATHERFORD…
TO WICHITA FALLS WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN… AND PERHAPS HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THROUGH 9 AM.
MEANWHILE… COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S
IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA… TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA… WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
Short-term forecast, some some showers/possible isolated t-storms to the west and “clouds continue to increase across the area”
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF ALVA… TO WEATHERFORD AND
FREDERICK OKLAHOMA… TO WICHITA FALLS AND ARCHER CITY, TEXAS LINE
WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN… AND PERHAPS HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH 9 AM.
MEANWHILE… COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S
IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA… TO THE MID 60S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA… WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THROUGH TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA PREVENTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…10 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK… WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS OCCURRING AT NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS STORM COMPLEXES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
Pottawatomie, Cleveland, McClain Counties: Significant Weather Advisory
OKZ028>030-272245-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-CLEVELAND OK-MCCLAIN OK-
528 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND…MCCLAIN AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY TO 3 MILES NORTH OF NEWCASTLE AT 528 PM CDT…MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER…VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.
Significant Weather Advisory- Stephens, Jefferson
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON AND STEPHENS
COUNTIES.
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COMANCHE AT
424 PM CDT…MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING…SMALL HAIL
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. AT 245 PM… SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR STILLWATER AND CUSHING… TO EDMOND… AND FROM
NORMAN… TO BETWEEN CHICKASHA AND DUNCAN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT… AND AN ASSOCIATED AXIS OF INSTABILITY.
BY 4 PM… THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
CHANDLER… SOUTHWEST TO NORMAN… TO DUNCAN. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA… THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
Expect showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
NOW…
…REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. AT 150 PM… SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR STILLWATER… TO GUTHRIE… AND FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA CITY… TO BETWEEN LAWTON AND CHICKASHA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS AXIS… FROM STILLWATER TO OKLAHOMA CITY…
THEN SOUTHWEST ALONG THE LENGTH OF I-44. THE AREA OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN… SMALL HAIL… GUSTY
WINDS… AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA… THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
Hazardous weather outlook
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION…
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HAD DELAYED
HEATING…BUT SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES REMAINED FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM STILLWATER TO WICHITA FALLS AT MIDDAY…WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S…CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE WEAK FRONT…INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE…
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO LIKELY. A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL LIFT…NEAR CLOUD BASE…WILL
LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
A SECOND REGION OF INTEREST WILL BE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA…GENERALLY
FROM WOODWARD DOWN TO ELK CITY AND MANGUM. LIFT AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE MORE CONSISTENT IN THAT REGION…AND DESPITE BEING
LOCATED BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT…RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY…AND A
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM…WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST…
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…25 PERCENT.
