Make a Prediction!
Ok, first: No Democratic presidential candidate has carried Oklahoma since 1964, when LBJ got 56 percent of the vote against Goldwater.
Here are the results in Oklahoma since then (I’ve left out some of the Independents):
1968: Nixon, 48 percent; Humphrey, 22 percent, George Wallace, 20 percent (!)
1972: Nixon, 74 percent; McGovern, 24 percent
1976: Ford, 50 percent; Carter, 49 percent (Didn’t realize this one was so close; about 13,000 votes)
1980: Reagan, 60.5 percent; Carter, 35 percent
1984: Reagan, 69 percent; Mondale, 31 percent
1988: Bush, 58 percent; Dukakis, 41 percent
1992: Bush, 42 percent; Clinton, 34 percent; Ross Perot, 23 percent
1996: Dole, 48 percent; Clinton, 40 percent; Perot, 11 percent
2000: Bush, 60 percent; Gore, 38 percent
2004: Bush, 66 percent; Kerry, 34 percent
So, given the state’s history in the last 44 years, how do you think McCain and Obama do on Tuesday in Oklahoma?
OU Political Science Prof. Keith Gaddie says McCain gets somewhere between 61 and 64 percent and Obama gets between 36 and 39 percent.
Former state Democratic Party chairman _ and Democratic fundraiser _ Mike Turpen says it will be closer than 60-40.
U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Moore, who held numerous political positions at the state and national level and is now chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, says McCain gets 65 percent or more.
What say you?
Hillary Promotes Rice
State Sen. Andrew Rice’s latest telethon-like plea for funds (Just another $15,000 to reach our goal!) includes a link to a message recorded for him by Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Rice, an Oklahoma City Democrat, is running against Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa.
What a difference six years makes! Or maybe it’s just a different type of candidate, but, in 2002, former Oklahoma Congressman Brad Carson, a Democrat, wouldn’t accept a campaign donation from Clinton’s political action committee.
“Senator Clinton is loved in many areas and very controversial in others. Given that sharp divide in opinion, I felt it best to not accept campaign contribution from her leadership PAC,” Carson said then.
Earlier this year, Clinton, of New York, won every single congressional district in Oklahoma in the Democratic presidential primary.
Rice Outraises Inhofe in Critical Two-Week Stretch
Democratic state Sen. Andrew Rice, battling to stay on television and radio in the last few weeks of his campaign against incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa, collected more money than Inhofe in the first two weeks of October, according to new reports at the Federal Election Commission.
Inhofe raised about $158,000. Rice collected about $213,000.
This doesn’t count the last-minute contributions that have been flowing since after the Oct. 15 reporting deadline. The campaigns for both are still dialing for dollars and sending out urgent pleas for donations.
Last-Minute Money Pouring In
Big donations are rolling in to Oklahoma’s incumbent members of Congress as the election nears.
Apparently mindful of a toxic political environment for Republican candidates nationwide _ and lingering bitterness over the $700 billion financial “rescue” plan _ Oklahoma’s GOP lawmakers aren’t taking anything for granted, though most have challengers with very little dough.
Rep. Tom Cole, R-Moore, raised more than $133,000 in just two weeks, from Oct. 1 through Oct. 15, and still has last-minute contributions coming in daily. His Democratic opponent, Blake Cummings, raised only $1,561 in that period, and his Independent opponent, David Joyce, hasn’t raised enough ($5,000) to trigger reporting to the Federal Election Commission.
Cole’s latest report shows he got thousands of dollars from the execs. of companies that provide gaming equipment to Indian tribes.
Rep. Mary Fallin, R-Oklahoma City, took in close to $90,000 in the first two weeks of October. Her Democratic opponent, Stephen Perry, hasn’t filed a report with the FEC since beginning his run for the House.
Rep. Frank Lucas, R-Cheyenne, raised $17,875 in the first part of October, most of it from Political Action Committees (PACs). His Democratic opponent, Frankie Robbins, raised $2,265, and his Independent opponent, Forrest Michael, raised $801.
Rep. John Sullivan, R-Tulsa, raised nearly $81,000 from Oct. 1 through Oct. 15. He is fighting Democrat Georgianna Oliver who has loaned her campaign more than $400,000.
Rep. Dan Boren, D-Muskogee, actually seemed to dial it back a bit after raising money at a frenetic pace for the past year. He took in only $34,650 in the first two weeks of the month, still leaving him with over $1 million in the bank, hundreds of thousands more than any of his Oklahoma colleagues in the House.
Boren’s Republican opponent, Raymond Wickson, hasn’t raised enough to report to the Federal Election Commission.
All of the incumbents reported spending money on advertising, meaning they’re not just counting on their name recognition to get them through a very volatile election season.
Turpen Donates $ to Repub Cole
Oklahoma City attorney Mike Turpen _ friend of Bill, friend of Hillary, friend of Barack and fundraiser for all of them _ made a $250 donation this month to (drum roll, please) Republican Congressman Tom Cole!!
Turpen, a former chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, doesn’t even live in Cole’s district. And with more than half a million dollars in the bank, Cole has a mega-huge financial advantage over his opponents, including Democrat Blake Cummings, who had only $3,500 in his campaign account on Oct. 15 (and no donations from Turpen).
Turpen responded to an e-mail inquiry about the donation today, saying, “I am proud to be an activist Democrat, but occasionally I step across the aisle and support a Republican friend … such is the case with Tom Cole.”
Turpen isn’t the only former Democratic Party chairman to donate to Cole in the past two weeks. Pat Hall, now a lobbyist, gave Cole $500.
Inhofe’s Lead Drops in One Poll
Sen. Jim Inhofe continues to maintain a double-digit lead over challenger Andrew Rice, but it has dwindled steadily in the past six weeks, according to a poll for KFOR in Oklahoma City.
According to the most recent SurveyUSA numbers, from a poll of 561 likely voters over the weekend, Inhofe, a Tulsa Republican, was favored by 51 percent. That is down from 53 percent in late September and down from 56 percent in early September.
Rice, a Democratic state senator from Oklahoma City, was at 39 percent last weekend, up from 37 percent in late September and 34 percent in early September.
Independent Stephen Wallace was at 7 percent last weekend, about the same as he’s been for the past six weeks. Undecided has been at 4 percent or 3 percent for that period.
According to SurveyUSA, there has been a major shift in Indepedent voters’ preferences. Six weeks ago, Inhofe led by 23 points among Independents; now he trails by 12 points.
Meanwhile, the SurveyUSA poll for KFOR shows Sen. John McCain, the Republican, with a 24-point lead over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential race in Oklahoma. McCain’s 59-35 lead is actually down from a 64-34 lead in late September.
Special Interest Money
The Federal Election Commission web site has a fairly easy way to look up donations to the congressional and Senate candidates. That includes donations from Political Action Committees (PACs), the so-called special interests that range from Big Oil to banks and insurance companies and cattle producers.
They’ve given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Oklahoma candidates, primarily incumbents.
Information about the Republican candidates for the House can be found here. The basic numbers show that Reps. Frank Lucas, R-Cheyenne, and John Sullivan, R-Tulsa, have actually raised more money from PACs than from individual contributors.
The Democratic numbers show Rep. Dan Boren (he’s listed as David D Boren) has raised substantially more from PACs than from individuals.
The individual and PAC donors can be viewed by clicking on the appropriate link.
Breakdowns for U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa, and his challenger, state Sen. Andrew Rice, D-Oklahoma City, are also available.
Obama Crosses Million Dollar Mark in OK
Oklahoma may wind up being the reddest of all red states this year — polls show only Utah in competition — but Sen. Barack Obama has now raised more than $1 million from Oklahomans.
According to the latest reports at the Federal Election Commission, Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, has raised just over $1 million.
But Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee, has raised more than $1.7 million. And he’s outraising Obama in every part of the state, including the largely Democratic areas in eastern Oklahoma.
Because McCain is accepting public financing for his campaign, he has been barred from raising private money since the beginning of September. Obama, who opted out of the public system, raised a whopping $150 million nationwide in September.
Istook’s Legal Fees
Former U.S. Rep. Ernest Istook has been out of Congress for nearly two years now, but he’s still paying legal fees for problems connected to his campaign and a former staff member in his House office.
Istook paid $4,000 to an Oklahoma City law firm in July for representing him in regard to the federal case against his former chief of staff, John Albaugh, who pleaded guilty in June to “honest services” fraud for taking concert tickets and meals from a lobbyist in exchange for money for road projects.
The payment was made out of leftover campaign funds and reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) this week.
Istook has acknowledged being questioned by the FBI in connection with the Albaugh case _ which grew out of the Jack Abramoff scandal _ but has said he is not a target of the investigation.
In an e-mail response to a question today, Istook said, “Because of John Albaugh’s activities, I sought legal advice. That is absolutely proper use (of campaign money) under FEC standards, since it involved congressional and campaign issues.”
The campaign issues that are part of the Albaugh matter: Albaugh arranged for campaign fundraisers for Istook using Abramoff’s leased suites at FedEx Field, where the Washington Redskins play, and the Verizon Center, a sports and entertainment venue in downtown DC.
In the same time period of those fundraisers, the 2003-04 election cycle, Istook’s campaign committed numerous violations, according to an FEC audit. Istook has paid $14,000, mostly from leftover campaign funds but some out of pocket, in fines and reimbursements to the FEC.
His latest campaign report shows he paid $2,000 in July to the DC law firm that has been handling his case before the FEC. The FEC has not publicly deemed that case officially closed.
Istook served in Congress from 1993 through 2006. He ran for governor in 2006 but was defeated by Gov. Brad Henry.
White House Plumbers
So is it wise for someone seeking the White House to talk about plumbers?
