Make a Prediction!
Ok, first: No Democratic presidential candidate has carried Oklahoma since 1964, when LBJ got 56 percent of the vote against Goldwater.
Here are the results in Oklahoma since then (I’ve left out some of the Independents):
1968: Nixon, 48 percent; Humphrey, 22 percent, George Wallace, 20 percent (!)
1972: Nixon, 74 percent; McGovern, 24 percent
1976: Ford, 50 percent; Carter, 49 percent (Didn’t realize this one was so close; about 13,000 votes)
1980: Reagan, 60.5 percent; Carter, 35 percent
1984: Reagan, 69 percent; Mondale, 31 percent
1988: Bush, 58 percent; Dukakis, 41 percent
1992: Bush, 42 percent; Clinton, 34 percent; Ross Perot, 23 percent
1996: Dole, 48 percent; Clinton, 40 percent; Perot, 11 percent
2000: Bush, 60 percent; Gore, 38 percent
2004: Bush, 66 percent; Kerry, 34 percent
So, given the state’s history in the last 44 years, how do you think McCain and Obama do on Tuesday in Oklahoma?
OU Political Science Prof. Keith Gaddie says McCain gets somewhere between 61 and 64 percent and Obama gets between 36 and 39 percent.
Former state Democratic Party chairman _ and Democratic fundraiser _ Mike Turpen says it will be closer than 60-40.
U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Moore, who held numerous political positions at the state and national level and is now chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, says McCain gets 65 percent or more.
What say you?
Hillary Promotes Rice
State Sen. Andrew Rice’s latest telethon-like plea for funds (Just another $15,000 to reach our goal!) includes a link to a message recorded for him by Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Rice, an Oklahoma City Democrat, is running against Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa.
What a difference six years makes! Or maybe it’s just a different type of candidate, but, in 2002, former Oklahoma Congressman Brad Carson, a Democrat, wouldn’t accept a campaign donation from Clinton’s political action committee.
“Senator Clinton is loved in many areas and very controversial in others. Given that sharp divide in opinion, I felt it best to not accept campaign contribution from her leadership PAC,” Carson said then.
Earlier this year, Clinton, of New York, won every single congressional district in Oklahoma in the Democratic presidential primary.
Inhofe, Rice Comment on Ted Stevens
Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa, who has served with Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, since late 1994, had this to say about Stevens’ conviction on corruption charges:
“Today is a sad day for the state of Alaska, the U.S. Senate, and the United States as a whole. Ted Stevens has served Alaska for over four decades and I am disappointed to see his career end this way. I strongly believe in the jury system and the rule of law, and recognize that this is an extremely disappointing day for all Americans.”
State Sen. Andrew Rice, D-Oklahoma City, who is challenging Inhofe this year, said this about Stevens’ conviction:
“A U.S. Senator convicted of seven felonies should not be allowed to remain on committees that control and recommend the expenditure of taxpayer money. Actions have consequences, and I call on Jim Inhofe to put Oklahoma taxpayers before his political party and urge Stevens be removed from those committees.”
Stevens is the second-ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee. He was the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee but agreed to step down from that position after being indicted.
Boren Named a Top “Centrist”
People around the country are reportedly disgusted with the constant partisanship in Congress, but according to a story in politico.com, Oklahoma has one of those rare lawmakers who actually stands in the middle of the partisan divide.
Rice Outraises Inhofe in Critical Two-Week Stretch
Democratic state Sen. Andrew Rice, battling to stay on television and radio in the last few weeks of his campaign against incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa, collected more money than Inhofe in the first two weeks of October, according to new reports at the Federal Election Commission.
Inhofe raised about $158,000. Rice collected about $213,000.
This doesn’t count the last-minute contributions that have been flowing since after the Oct. 15 reporting deadline. The campaigns for both are still dialing for dollars and sending out urgent pleas for donations.
Last-Minute Money Pouring In
Big donations are rolling in to Oklahoma’s incumbent members of Congress as the election nears.
Apparently mindful of a toxic political environment for Republican candidates nationwide _ and lingering bitterness over the $700 billion financial “rescue” plan _ Oklahoma’s GOP lawmakers aren’t taking anything for granted, though most have challengers with very little dough.
Rep. Tom Cole, R-Moore, raised more than $133,000 in just two weeks, from Oct. 1 through Oct. 15, and still has last-minute contributions coming in daily. His Democratic opponent, Blake Cummings, raised only $1,561 in that period, and his Independent opponent, David Joyce, hasn’t raised enough ($5,000) to trigger reporting to the Federal Election Commission.
Cole’s latest report shows he got thousands of dollars from the execs. of companies that provide gaming equipment to Indian tribes.
Rep. Mary Fallin, R-Oklahoma City, took in close to $90,000 in the first two weeks of October. Her Democratic opponent, Stephen Perry, hasn’t filed a report with the FEC since beginning his run for the House.
Rep. Frank Lucas, R-Cheyenne, raised $17,875 in the first part of October, most of it from Political Action Committees (PACs). His Democratic opponent, Frankie Robbins, raised $2,265, and his Independent opponent, Forrest Michael, raised $801.
Rep. John Sullivan, R-Tulsa, raised nearly $81,000 from Oct. 1 through Oct. 15. He is fighting Democrat Georgianna Oliver who has loaned her campaign more than $400,000.
Rep. Dan Boren, D-Muskogee, actually seemed to dial it back a bit after raising money at a frenetic pace for the past year. He took in only $34,650 in the first two weeks of the month, still leaving him with over $1 million in the bank, hundreds of thousands more than any of his Oklahoma colleagues in the House.
Boren’s Republican opponent, Raymond Wickson, hasn’t raised enough to report to the Federal Election Commission.
All of the incumbents reported spending money on advertising, meaning they’re not just counting on their name recognition to get them through a very volatile election season.
Turpen Donates $ to Repub Cole
Oklahoma City attorney Mike Turpen _ friend of Bill, friend of Hillary, friend of Barack and fundraiser for all of them _ made a $250 donation this month to (drum roll, please) Republican Congressman Tom Cole!!
Turpen, a former chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, doesn’t even live in Cole’s district. And with more than half a million dollars in the bank, Cole has a mega-huge financial advantage over his opponents, including Democrat Blake Cummings, who had only $3,500 in his campaign account on Oct. 15 (and no donations from Turpen).
Turpen responded to an e-mail inquiry about the donation today, saying, “I am proud to be an activist Democrat, but occasionally I step across the aisle and support a Republican friend … such is the case with Tom Cole.”
Turpen isn’t the only former Democratic Party chairman to donate to Cole in the past two weeks. Pat Hall, now a lobbyist, gave Cole $500.
Inhofe’s Lead Drops in One Poll
Sen. Jim Inhofe continues to maintain a double-digit lead over challenger Andrew Rice, but it has dwindled steadily in the past six weeks, according to a poll for KFOR in Oklahoma City.
According to the most recent SurveyUSA numbers, from a poll of 561 likely voters over the weekend, Inhofe, a Tulsa Republican, was favored by 51 percent. That is down from 53 percent in late September and down from 56 percent in early September.
Rice, a Democratic state senator from Oklahoma City, was at 39 percent last weekend, up from 37 percent in late September and 34 percent in early September.
Independent Stephen Wallace was at 7 percent last weekend, about the same as he’s been for the past six weeks. Undecided has been at 4 percent or 3 percent for that period.
According to SurveyUSA, there has been a major shift in Indepedent voters’ preferences. Six weeks ago, Inhofe led by 23 points among Independents; now he trails by 12 points.
Meanwhile, the SurveyUSA poll for KFOR shows Sen. John McCain, the Republican, with a 24-point lead over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential race in Oklahoma. McCain’s 59-35 lead is actually down from a 64-34 lead in late September.
Kelly’s First Term a Dud
Looks like former Sooner Malcolm Kelly’s first season in Washington could be a wash-out.
Special Interest Money
The Federal Election Commission web site has a fairly easy way to look up donations to the congressional and Senate candidates. That includes donations from Political Action Committees (PACs), the so-called special interests that range from Big Oil to banks and insurance companies and cattle producers.
They’ve given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Oklahoma candidates, primarily incumbents.
Information about the Republican candidates for the House can be found here. The basic numbers show that Reps. Frank Lucas, R-Cheyenne, and John Sullivan, R-Tulsa, have actually raised more money from PACs than from individual contributors.
The Democratic numbers show Rep. Dan Boren (he’s listed as David D Boren) has raised substantially more from PACs than from individuals.
The individual and PAC donors can be viewed by clicking on the appropriate link.
Breakdowns for U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa, and his challenger, state Sen. Andrew Rice, D-Oklahoma City, are also available.
