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Ramifications of Spurs loss

Three losses the last four games have essentially squashed the Thunder’s chances of earning the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs.

Oklahoma City is still in the running for the No. 4 seed. But it probably will take 53 or 54 wins to finish in the top four which means the Thunder would have to go 11-2 or 12-1 the rest of the season which isn’t realistic because of a demanding schedule.

Despite a recent tailspin — the Thunder’s worst week in more than two months — the sky isn’t falling. The Thunder will make the playoffs. Oklahoma City probably could go 4-9 the rest of the season and get in. A 3-10 or 2-11 finish might even be enough. That’s the cushion they built by going 17-3 over a six-week span.

The impact of losses to Charlotte (blowing a 19-point lead), Indiana (the biggest embarrassment all season) and San Antonio (couldn’t sustain early 14-point lead) is seeding.

Analyzing Western Conference contenders’ schedules, the best guess is Oklahoma City will still finish as the No. 6 seed. The Spurs’ win Monday, though, could make it a battle for the No. 6 and No. 7 spots. San Antonio now owns the tiebreaker which will force OKC to finish one game ahead of the Spurs.

San Antonio and Oklahoma City have the two most difficult schedules down the stretch which could give Portland an opportunity to climb as high as No. 6. The Spurs’ schedule is absolutely brutal.

After playing the Hawks and Thunder, the Spurs host the Lakers and Cleveland then end the week with a road game Sunday at Boston. And San Antonio still has to play Orlando, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas and has another game with the Lakers.

That’s why if the Thunder can right the ship they can still finish as the No. 6 seed with an outside shot at No. 5 if the Suns were to stumble a couple of times against a so-so schedule.

Regardless of where OKC is seeded, the Thunder will be an underdog in the playoffs. Still, every team wants to avoid the No. 8 spot and a first-round matchup with the Lakers. That’s why Sunday’s game against Portland is HUGE!!!

OKC has two less losses than the Trail Blazers. If the Thunder wins Sunday night in the Ford Center they would clinch season tiebreaker, putting them in prime position to finish ahead of Portland.

Just making the playoffs is a huge step for a young team that won only 23 games last season. The Thunder will more than double that total, one of the top 10 turnarounds in NBA history.

Home-court advantage no longer looks realistic. But considering most preseason predictions didn’t give the Thunder a shot at finishing .500, much less make the playoffs, competing for the No. 6, 7 and 8 seeds is something players, coaches and fans would have taken in a heartbeat back in October.


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Ugly loss, pivotal game

A loss Sunday at Indiana was perhaps the Thunder’s worst performance of the season. It makes tonight’s game against the Spurs, the first game of a pivotal four-game homestand one of the most important all season.

A win tonight in the Ford Center puts the Thunder two games in front of the San Antonio Spurs. Oklahoma City would be in good position to finish as the sixth seed or higher.

A loss tonight in the Ford Center puts the Thunder in a precarious position of possibly falling to the seventh or eighth seed. San Antonio would be tied with OKC and the Spurs would own the tiebreaker having clinched the season series.

One game won’t make or break the season. But it’s a huge game. The Thunder has exhibited a bounce-back mentality all season. They’re also catching the Spurs at a good time.

Point guard Tony Parker is sidelined by a broken hand. San Antonio is an older team, challenged by back-to-back games. The Spurs have to be fatigued, having lost a grueling overtime decision Sunday night in Atlanta. They probably didn’t check into their hotel around 2 a.m.

The Spurs, though, have been playing some of their best basketball in recent weeks in large part because Manu Ginobili has been playing well the past six weeks.

In San Antonio’s two wins over OKC, Ginobili made a diving-out-of-bounds, game-saving play in an overtime win in the Ford Center in January, then blocked Kevin Durant’s shot, the key play in a win in San Antonio last month.

The loss Sunday at Indiana didn’t knock the Thunder out of contention for the No. 4 seed, i.e. homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But it was costly. It also continued a recent alarming trend in which the defense has slipped noticeably.

OKC took advantage of a soft schedule the past month to solidify making the playoffs. But now comes a demanding 14-game stretch run. Of all the West contenders, the Thunder has the second most difficult schedule the final three weeks, trailing only the Spurs, who play OKC, the Lakers, Cleveland and Boston this week.

It might take 53 wins to finish as the No. 4 seed. That means the Thunder would have to go 11-3 the rest of the way, a daunting challenge considering the schedule.

Fifty wins, though, might be good enough to finish as the sixth seed. To get to half a hundred, the Thunder must go 8-6 the rest of the season. It won’t be easy but it’s a realistic goal, especially if OKC can post a pivotal win tonight over the Spurs.


Pacers 121, Thunder 101

News, notes and observations from Sunday’s 121-101 loss at Indiana….

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One More Look At Serge’s Slam

Tip-off in Indiana is just a few hours away. But before completely moving past the Thunder’s 115-89 win at Toronto, it’s worth having one more look at Serge Ibaka’s monster putback slam off Kevin Durant’s miss.

“Serge Ibaka got the dunk of the night two games in a row,” Durant said. “That was an unbelievable play. I think that’s what started that run we had. That was one of the best plays I’ve ever seen.”

Said Jeff Green, “It was amazing. I was standing at the 3-point line and I saw it. He came from out of nowhere and I think he grabbed it out of one of the guys’ hands. I think it should be No. 1 on ESPN.”

Enjoy.

-DM-


Thunder 115, Raptors 89

News, notes and observations from Friday’s 115-89 win at Toronto…..

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The Race For Most Improved

An e-mail landed in my inbox yesterday from the Houston Rockets.

In it, the Rockets officially made their case for Aaron Brooks as this season’s Most Improved Player. And Brooks, the jitterbug third-year point guard out of Oregon, seemingly is the front-runner for the hardware. Somewhere close behind him is Thunder guard Russell Westbrook. At least on my ballot.

But that could change in the final month of the season.

Westbrook hasn’t garnered much attention nationally for being one of the most improved players, primarily because he hasn’t accumulated a drastic increase in his statistics. Brooks, on the other hand elevated his production from 11.2 points per game to a 20.1-point average. That type of shift in scoring is generally the sexy statistical measure that voters use to select winners.

Indiana’s Danny Granger won last year’s award after going from 19.6 points per game to 25.8. Hedo Turkoglu won in 2008 after increasing his scoring from 13.3 points to 19.5 points per game. 2007 winner Monta Ellis went from 6.8 points as rookie to 16.5 as a sophomore. And Boris Diaw, in 2006, went from 4.8 points to 13.3.

Westbrook simply doesn’t have those same credentials. In his second season, Westbrook is averaging 16.8 points, just 1.5 more than he did last year. But anyone who saw Westbrook last year and has paid attention this year could certainly join me in making a case for him. He’s improved his all-around game, becoming a better ball-handler, mid-range shooter and, most importantly, a lead guard and leader.

I went on record last year by writing that Kevin Durant deserved the award over Devin Harris (although Granger eventually pulled the upset) because Harris’ increased production largely was a product of greater opportunity. Many felt that Durant, the Rookie of the Year in 2008, had no right to be considered an MIP candidate in his second season. He was “supposed” to make a natural jump, many said. He was the second overall pick, others reasoned. And yet some consider Durant the MIP this season. And while Durant’s development in Year Three has certainly been phenomenal, Westbrook improvement is as much, if not more, of the backbone to the Thunder’s turnaround.

Westbrook, playing with even more weapons with the addition of James Harden, has increased his scoring (+1.5), assists (+2.7), rebounds (+0.2) and field-goal percentage (from 39.8 percent to 42.3 percent). He’s also increased his steals and blocked shots while lowering his turnovers. Brooks, who leads all players in one-year scoring differential at plus-8.7, is benefiting mostly from the absence of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.

It’s possible Westbrook could pull the upset over Brooks like Granger did over Harris last season. If he does it’ll prove that the “experts” really are paying attention and not just casting their votes for players whose stats look best in a PDF file.

Here’s a look at the leading candidates for Most Improved Player.

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The Story Of Jeff Green: Part II

Another strong video produced by the Thunder in the second installment of The Story of Jeff Green. If you didn’t see part one, it was well worth taking time out and watching it. While part one looks at where he grew up and how he began to blossom in high school, part two goes over his time at Georgetown and shows you some of the places he used to hang out at. Former teammate, Hoyas guard Tyler Crawford, takes you to the places around town that Green and his crew spent their days. Crawford shows you the bench Green and friends sat on and made their chill spot on campus, their old townhouse across from the school and the sub shop they frequented “three or four times a week.” Like part one, this one is really worth watching. Enjoy.

-DM-


Bobcats 100, Thunder 92

News, notes and observations from Wednesday’s 100-92 loss at Charlotte…

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