The ROY Race Minus Blake Griffin
James Harden (pictured above in the bow tie) rejected the notion that he’s got a better shot at Rookie of the Year now that L.A. Clippers rookie and No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin could miss up to six weeks with a knee injury. The Thunder’s No. 3 overall pick out of Arizona State said the 2009 draft class still is too deep, too talented to get overly confident just because Griffin will miss a chunk of the season.
“Obviously Blake’s a tremendous player,” Harden said. “I hope he recovers very well. But we have a great class. Jonny Flynn over there (in Minnesota), Tyreke Evans, who we’re playing against (tonight) has a chance, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry. It goes down the line. These are some great players who are put in positions to play and help their teammates win games. So it’s up for a hunt.”
But how will Griffin’s near two-month absence impact the Rookie of the Year race?
Of this year’s 30 first-round picks, 21 are set to make their debuts tonight. Four of them will be in the Ford Center for tonight’s season opener against Sacramento. Top five picks Harden and Evans will get a heavy dose of minutes. Sacramento forward Omri Casspi, the No. 23 overall pick, will make history when he checks into the game for the first time and becomes the first Israeli to play in the NBA. And Byron Mullens, the No. 24 pick will be on the Thunder’s bench as well.
Griffin isn’t out of contention for the award. But he’ll have to make up ground in a hurry when he returns. That could be rather difficult considering Griffin is on a Clippers team with a talented frontcourt and he’ll be experiencing his rookie growing pains more than a month later than everyone else in contention.
So with Griffin out of the picture for now, what largely was considered a two-man race might be about to blossom into free-for-all between seven main competitors. Here they are, listed in order of most likely to win it.
1. Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings, PG, No. 4 overall pick
The case for: He’s walked into a starting job on a bad team and will have the ball in his hands for the better part of about 32 to 35 minutes a game. But he’s also ready, willing and able to make plays. The former one-and-done combo guard at Memphis is explosive and possesses tremendous size at 6-foot-6 to have an impact in all phases of the game. He’ll become a stat stuffer from Day One and draw lots of attention with the numbers he puts up.
The case against: His final points average could be higher than the number of wins the Kings finish with, which will lead some to not vote for him because he’ll be the classic “Getting-his-numbers-on-a-bad-team guy.” But hey, it’s been done before (see: Kevin Durant, Elton Brand and Allen Iverson). Evans’ biggest problem seemingly is what is sure to be a lack of exposure. The Kings don’t have a single nationally televised game on ESPN, TNT or ABC and have just one on NBATV. Also hurting Evans could be the fact that Sacramento is simply in the worst possible time zone. Most of the Kings’ games this season will tip off at a time the majority of the country can’t afford to pay attention to even if the Kings were on T.V. or folks have NBA League Pass.
2. Jonny Flynn, Minnesota Timberwolves, PG, No. 6 overall pick.
The case for: His talent is enormous. He understands the game, gets wherever he wants on the court, makes his teammates better and is a highlight waiting to happen. Alongside talented young post players Al Jefferson and Kevin Love (when he gets healthy), teams won’t be able to gear defenses to stop this generously-listed 6-foot jitterbug. And he will make them pay. And with Wolves fifth overall pick Ricky Rubio staying overseas and the team trading guards Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair in the off-season, it’s Flynn’s show in the Twin Cities.
The case against: Ramon Sessions has been added to the mix in Minnesota, and the 6-foot-3 guard could be on the verge of a breakout season. In addition to Sessions, Flynn also has to share the load with Love, Jefferson and Ryan Gomes so it might not be enough touches to go around. Flynn could average eight assists, but will his point total be high enough to warrant consideration?
3. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors, SG, No. 7 overall pick
The case for: He’s a scorer playing for Don Nelson. He couldn’t have landed in a better situation than in Nellie’s shoot-early-and-often system. Curry will have the ultimate green light as a rookie and, if he lives up to being the scorer he was in college at the next level, he could lead all rookies in scoring. The Warriors also have eight nationally televised games and because of their brand of ball, people will have a reason to tune in. Starting headache Stephen Jackson could be traded by the deadline, which will only open up more of an opportunity for Curry to shine in the second half of the season.
The case against: Curry has yet to prove he can impact a game without his perimeter shooting. He was Mr. Everything at Davidson, but in the NBA he’ll be relied on to score from the perimeter. If he for some reason struggles to do that, as he did throughout the preseason, he’ll have a hard time getting off the bench. He’s not a player that must be on the court at this stage in his career, and until he adds more dimensions to his game it’ll be easy for him to get looked over when his shots aren’t falling.
4. James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder, SG, No. 3 overall pick
The case for: He could be the most polished offensive perimeter player in this year’s class. If not the most polished then one of the savviest. Harden definitely knows how to play the game. It should help that he joined a stable that includes Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, which will allow him to be the inconspicuous threat that ends up torching defenses. His all-around skills make him a triple-double type threat, and there could be many nights when he flirts with the feat.
The case against: Thabo Sefolosha is standing in his way. Harden will come off the bench behind Sefolosha at shooting guard and will have to fight for any minute he receives above 20 per game. The rookie will have to be good every second he’s on the floor to stay in contention. Because the Thunder is trying to establish defense as its identity and Sefolosha is the better defensive player, Harden won’t have much room for error.
5. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors, SG/SF, No. 9 overall pick
The case for: Apparently coach Jay Triano has named the rook the starting shooting guard. That role on this team is like a dream come true for a young player. DeRozan won’t be asked to do much as a starter alongside Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu, Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh. But with so many eyes on the other four starters, he’ll have plenty of space to make plays. And the high-flying wingman from USC knows how to put the ball in the hole. You can count on at least one highlight-reel dunk from him per game. It also helps that the Raptors are projected by many to return to the playoffs this season. So whatever the rookie does will be magnified during the regular season more than almost all of his competitors.
The case against: He’s not going to be asked to do much, but the two things things Toronto will ask of him are two things he hasn’t gotten down — shooting and defense. He made just six of 36 3-pointers in college and went 3-for-11 from downtown in the preseason. And he was criticized for his defensive effort while with the Trojans. DeRozan can make the highlight play. But it’s how he will rebound, defend and knock down shots that will determine how much he succeeds as a rookie. And it doesn’t look like he’s ready to do all those things.
6. Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks, PG, No. 10 overall pick
The case for: He might be the best playmaker in this class. Jennings is a natural at setting up his teammates for easy baskets and makes the game look easy at times. But he also knows how to slice his slithery frame into the paint and score. His speed will give him an automatic edge over his defender each night, and he has an extreme amount of confidence that won’t allow him to walk into matchup intimidated by the game’s best point guards.
The case against: He far from polished, let alone a finished product. Rather than the simple play he’s prone to turnovers because of his love for the flashy play. His decision-making needs improvement. He can be out of control at times and, as a left-hander, needs to work on driving to his right. In an age where quick and crafty point guards have shooting percentages in the high 40s and 50s, Jennings could break the mold with his rickety jump shot. And to top it all off, his cocky attitude might be too big of a turn off for voters.
7. DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs, PF, No. 37 overall pick
The case for: He’s the best rebounder in this draft class and could go down as the best second-round pick in 2009. Blair has a nose for the ball, particularly on the offensive end, and can finish with high-percentage putbacks once he gets his paws on the board. His energy end effort will gain him huge points among fans, media members and the rest of the league. And on a probable 50-win Spurs team, he’ll naturally get the most publicity of any rookie. Starting with tonight’s opener against New Orleans, the Spurs have 20 nationally televised games on ABC, TNT or ESPN. Four of them come before Nov. 6. Another eight games are scheduled for NBATV. It’s the perfect setup. All Blair has to do is continue to be productive.
The case against: He might get much of an opportunity. The Spurs have reloaded, adding Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff to a frontline that already included future Hall of Famer Tim Duncan and valuable sharp-shooter Matt Bonner. Like every rookie, it’ll take Blair some time to learn the NBA game. But unlike most other rookies, Blair landed on a championship-minded Spurs squad, and San Antonio won’t be able to wait for him to catch up. Even if Blair does carve out a role for himself, he’s terribly undersized at just 6.6. That would make it difficult for him to get on the court against taller frontlines like the Lakers, Portland, Dallas, Boston, Cleveland and the Clippers,
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