Paul Millsap: To Sign Or Not To Sign?
One name that constantly crops up around here as the start of free agency nears is Paul Millsap. The big man for the Utah Jazz will be a restricted free agent Wednesday, and fans have long wanted the Thunder to take a chance on the 6-foot-8 forward out of Louisiana Tech. A potential pairing of Millsap and the Thunder has made national headlines Monday morning because of mentions here and here, suggesting the Thunder might make a run at him.
It’s an easy connection to make. Millsap, with his rebounding and interior defense, fits the Thunder’s most pressing needs. Assistant general manager Troy Weaver is also a former director of player personnel with the Jazz and is more familiar with Millsap than most. Add to that, Millsap is one of the best up-and-coming big men in the league after a breakout season in 2008-09 as a result of Jazz starter Carlos Boozer’s injury woes. Millsap averaged 13.5 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals, all career-highs. He also connected on career-highs of 69.9 percent from the free throw line and 53.4 percent from the field in 30.1 minutes per game.
And so there are reasons to believe the Thunder will make a run and Millsap, but there are also some that suggest OKC won’t.
Why it makes sense: He’s young. Millsap just turned 24 in February, meaning he’d fit right in with the long-term approach the Thunder is taking by accumulating youth. General manager Sam Presti is dead set on acquiring a group of players who can grow together and sustain success. Millsap would fit that bill wonderfully.
He fits a need. Millsap is an energy guy who will do the dirty work on the glass and play solid defense in the post. He’s also a team player. He doesn’t need or desire the ball to try to be a scorer, which won’t take opportunities away from Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrrook, Nenad Krstic and James Harden. At the same time, as evidenced by his 13.5-point average on a loaded Jazz team, Millsap can put the ball in the hole, either when called upon or through hustling for garbage buckets. His rebounding skills would also protect Krstic, who struggles to rebound consistently to say the least. Krstic averaged only 5.5 rebounds, fewer than Nick Collison (6.9), Jeff Green (6.7) and Kevin Durant (6.5). With a bruiser like Millsap, Krstic could concentrate on doing what he does best, hitting the 17-footer out of pick-and-pop plays with Russell Westbrook.
OKC can outbid Utah at a discounted rate. The Jazz have some tough decisions to make this summer on Millsap, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. It’s unlikely Utah can keep all of three. The Thunder, as it tried to do last summer with restricted free agent C.J. Miles, could set the bar at a more reasonable height than what Millsap could normally command on the open market, but a level the Jazz would be hard-pressed to reach and match nonetheless. What that figure would be is the unknown, as Millsap has emerged as one of the hottest commodities available. But OKC does have a bit of an upper hand. In addition to Utah’s cap concerns, Detroit, Memphis, Atlanta, Portland, Toronto and Minnesota are the only other teams that have ample cap space to also make a run at Millsap. And only a few seem to have enough interest/need for Millsap to open up the checkbook for him.
Why it doesn’t make sense: He almost certainly will come with a hefty price tag. If Millsap really is looking to bring home a shiny new $65 million contract this summer, chances are you can forget the Thunder’s logo being attached to it. As Mike Baldwin laid out today, Presti will be cautious in his approach to free agency this summer. Oklahoma City still could be more than $11 million below the salary cap after signing this year’s draft picks. But the Thunder is trying to save room to re-sign Kevin Durant and Jeff Green to contract extensions two years from now, not have a $12 million burden on the books by then for a role player. (Keep in mind Westbrook will be up for an extension the following year, and now the Thunder might have to give Harden a good amount of coin the year after that as well depending on how his first four years play out.)
He’ll create a logjam. Where will Millsap play? The Thunder isn’t really worried about positions right now. The team is playing Green out of his customary small forward position at power forward just to get him the most minutes as possible. But acquiring Millsap will either move Green to the bench (highly unlikely) or mean Millsap will continue coming off the bench (making him one of the league’s most expensive reserves). Add to that, Green already plays 37 minutes, mainly at power forward, and Durant plays 39 per game, mostly at small forward. There is little wiggle room in the rotation at those positions (unless you want to move Durant back to shooting guard, Green back to small forward and cut off minutes for Thabo Sefolosha and third overall pick Harden. Again, highly unlikely). The Thunder also has Nick Collison already coming off the bench at power forward/center and last year’s 29th overall pick, D.J. White, in the fold as well. Power forwards Serge Ibaka and DeVon Hardin are in the pipeline but aren’t likely to command minutes next season if they are on the roster. But the fact that they’re in the pipeline is reason enough to pass on using a significant amount of cap space on another power forward. Millsap would take away minutes from Ibaka, White and, to a lesser extent, Harden, and impede their development whenever it is that they’re ready to contribute.
The question you have to ask is does Millsap fit with the Thunder both short term and long term? The answer seems to be no. With Joe Smith gone and Malik Rose and Robert Swift likely gone as well, Millsap could come in and add relief on the interior immediately as Green’s backup at power forward alongside Collison as the backup center. But how much would that backup tandem cost? Collison is already owed $13 million over the next two seasons. And in the long term, when Ibaka and White are ready to contribute, where would that leave Millsap? And where would that leave the Thunder’s financial state?
It’s possible the Thunder thinks Millsap is worth the gamble, which then begs the question how good is this guy right now in the organization’s mind and how much better does the Thunder think he can be?
We’ll find out the answer soon enough.
-DM-
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Comments
Let’s get the veteran center we need to block shots and keep the opposing center away from the basket, then work on other positions. That center is the last piece to the big puzzle. If we get that center, we have Collison to sub Green at power forward, or use him when Green can’t guard the opponent’s power forward.
[...] Darnell Mayberry with some great analysis about the Paul Millsap rumor: “He’ll create a logjam. Where will Millsap play? The Thunder isn’t really worried about positions right now. The team is playing Green out of his customary small forward position at power forward just to get him the most minutes as possible. But acquiring Millsap will either move Green to the bench (highly unlikely) or mean Millsap will continue coming off the bench (making him one of the league’s most expensive reserves). Add to that, Green already plays 37 minutes, mainly at power forward, and Durant plays 39 per game, mostly at small forward. There is little wiggle room in the rotation at those positions (unless you want to move Durant back to shooting guard, Green back to small forward and cut off minutes for Thabo Sefolosha and third overall pick Harden. Again, highly unlikely).” [...]
First, Hopefully all of these sports writers need to realize that we need to stop being packrats. I like keeping some of the role players, but I would say at least half of the role players we have now need to be gone by the time Jeff and Kevin need an extension. These guys should be gone if we are wanting to win a championship-Kyle Weaver,Earl Watson,Dominique Wilkins,Devon Hardin,and possibly these guys too-DJ White,Nick Collison, and Robert Vaden. Hopefully everyone realizes that the Lakers won a championship because plenty of their backups would be starting on other teams. And i don’t get this whole deal about you can’t move Jeff to the sixth’s man’s spot. Shure you can and that would be a great move. He could be the sixth man who would come in for SF and PF when they went out. The perfect player to get next season in the draft is a hybrid PF/C that was a beast on defense.
I am a bit confused by many Thunder fans who want to spend big money on a future back up?
Dj White is going to be our guy!!!
I truly believe that early in the season it will be clear that DJ is the power forward of the future.I loved the pick late in the first when we got DJ and I was further convinced based upon a few games late in the season last year.
How about we go after Channing Frye for about 6.5 million instead.
He is 6′11 and about 25 or 26.
By the way..why would we get rid of Kyle Weaver?
he had a nice rookie season and can play D…
As much as I like J. Green (and I love his effort and talent), I think eventually the Thunder are going to have to “go bigger” at some point. Truth is last year Joe Smith was instrmental in many match-ups. The drafting of Harden just adds to the log jam.
The main reasons not to sign Millsap are that we already have Uncle Jeff and DJ White at power forward, Millsap will want more money than we would pay, and next year’s draft is likely full of power forwards.
The smart move is to make Marcin Gortat an offer along the lines of $24 million over 4 years. The contracts of our current first- and second-string centers, Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison, expire in two years, and apparently, we were shopping Collison to Memphis to try to move up to the second pick in the draft. Two years is also about the time most people think it will take for Byron Mullen to improve to the point that he may be able to join the rotation. And, we could frontload the highest years of Gortat’s offer to give us more room when Durant and Green come up for extensions.
(MM, I think it all depends on how they plan on using Jeff Green. If they think he’s a “power forward” or at least can hold his own defending the league’s elite power forwards, then they don’t sign Millsap. But if they view Green as the potential sixth man down the line, I think they can bring in Millsap now and bring him off the bench for a season or two while still giving him 28-30 minutes before moving Green to a sixth man role in favor of Millsap at power forward. Having said that, I don’t think that’s the direction the Thunder will go in, although Presti has his sights set on two and three years from now, not next year. As far as Gortat, I think you’re on the money. That’s a reasonable deal for a 25-year-old up-and-coming center. And if the Thunder offers him more than the mid-level exception, which that is, the Magic can’t match. You might not even have to frontload it. There are all kinds of scenarios that could play out over the next several weeks. -DM-)
I’d like to add Millsap and send Green to the bench as a sixth man. Green is no kind of PF in the NBA. Undersized guys like Millsap can get away with guarding bigs because they have good standing reach. Jeff Green’s reach is puny and he has a lot of trouble defending his position (remember David West’s repeated scorchings?). Millsap would shore up the position and lock it down. Then all that’s left is finding a capable center, and with two first rounders next year I don’t see the problem there.
Marcin Gortat would be a guy to bring in. Orlando is unlikely to match any offer to Gortat considering their salary situation.
The NBA had 15 players per team maximum, and I believe we must use most of them (some players might get injured). And there is no getting around this: if you want a championship-caliber team, you have to shell out money. The LA Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Orlando Magic are not a bunch of penny-pinchers (the top 3 salaries from each team; they each make $13+ million/year). On the flip side, the Memphis Grizzlies are a bunch of misers, and I don’t remember seeing Memphis in a playoff.
I think DM is right on the money. We don’t need millsap we have jeff green. believe it or not jeff green is better than millsap and as he is working out this summer lifting weights and adds another 20 to 25 pounds of muscle the next two years he will be a great power forward. Also Serge Ibaka is gonna be awesome in the next three years. The only free agents i see as helping our team without overspending would be gortat or chris anderson. we really could use a shot blocking pw to come off the bench or center. I’m not really sure the birdman is the right fit his energy and shot blocking are what we need but his personality and past problems make him not the ideal fit…he is perfect in denver i hope for his sake he stays there. As far as gortat i think he would be a perfect fit but we don’t want to overpay him at 25 and without a lot of experience.. i think houston and some over teams are gonna make him too expensive… we need to be patient…next years draft is good for centers and power forwards…so just be patient and wait….let these players develop…if green develops as much between last year and this…people will quit talkin about he is a small forward playing power forward and saying he is an allstar much like david west. And please quit all the talk of westbrook isn’t a point guard he will cut down on turnovers this year and because he has a shooter in harden his assits will go up. Great draft but be patient and don’t overspend on free agents… help will come with next years draft…sign some depth with the free agents maybe another shooter or backup pg but just sign for a year or two… nothing big let these young guys play and get better. and keep up the good job dm… you seem right on the money.
Gortat is the perfect fit for the thunder but i think we will end up being outbid by houston or new york…not so much the money but just the opportunity to start and the bigger markets… Guys i really like aren’t free agents we would have to trade to get…and other than draft picks i’m not sure if we would have what it takes to get them or if we would have to give up too much…. I’m really talking myself into chris anderson as a better pick as well.. just not sure about his character. Guys i would target for a trade would be tyrus thomas and joakim naoh from chicago or samuel dalembert from the 76ers they would be great fits for oklahoma… What do you guys think about these guys with the thunder and what would it take to get them… I was thinking giving some draft picks from next year…
As a Jazz fan I hope you’re right about Millsap not fitting in with OKC’s team. But you’ve got to be smoking something strong if you think he should come off the bench behind *either* Green or Kristic. Millsap was a consistent double-double with Boozer out. On the Thunder he’d be a 16 and 10 player, easy. Leaving Millsap on the bench was a tough call in *Utah*, where they have an all-star caliber PF. It would be a no-brainer to start him in OKC.
Dale, there is an article in The Oklahoman about the Thunder negotiating with Millsap. In this article, it states, “But among the options in Oklahoma City are moving Kevin Durant back to shooting guard and sliding Jeff Green to small forward to create a starting spot for Millsap.” I love the idea. Green is not a power forward like Westbrook is not a point guard.
The proper thing Thunder should have done was to draft Dejuan Blair, who will contribute exactly what Millsap provides for 25 minutes at 1/10 the price. Blair is a true energy guy.
Then they should sign Gortat instead of Millsap.
Blair is a perfect fit, he does not need to play 40 minutes. He only needs to play 20, and he will give you 7-8 boards in 20 minutes. So what if he gets injured in 3 years, you only have to pay like 1 million/year for him.
When you shell out that 10 million/year for Millsap, how much are you playing for each rebound?
Gortat + Blair is at most 7-8 million/year and both players are proven. This combination will have one of the highest rebound rates in the league.
Instead, we might end up with 10-12 million/year for Millsap + Mullen. Not to mention a bigger total contract for Millsap since no way he settles for less than 5 years. We will pay Mullen money to develop while Blair is grabbing over 10 boards each time he plays over 30 minutes in San Antonio.
Plus, if Blair does not work out, there is the 2010 MEGA free agent class. If we are stuck paying Millsap, what happens to our flexibility in 2010?
You have to be pretty certain that Millsap is capable of playing PF on a champion caliber team if you want to commit to him that long.
Blair + Gortat was really the best way to go.
The best thing to do now is to sign Gortat, and then wait until 2010 to get another PF.
I’m glad someone mentioned blair. what a great high risk high reward player but the fact that so many teams not only the thunder passed on him should tell you all you need to know. I think san antonio did well to pick him up so late in the draft but i feel any earlier would have be imprudent. The facts are that san antonio was the only medical staff that would sign off on drafting this kid. I hope for his sake everyone is wrong about his knees and he proves everyone wrong because i really like the kid. He much like tyson chandler has all star ability when healthy but seems too much of a risk to take. I really feel like between blairs knee and mullens upside this pick was a toss up. If i had to make that decision it would have been a tough one. I totally understand your frustration with drafting another center with potential as we all know that hasn’t worked out well. But i also see the injured tyson chandler not helping out the hornets much this year either. Maybe in the long run we will wish we has signed a scorer or shooter with the second pick there were definatly a few availabe marcus thorton and wayne ellington were some other possible picks. Drafting players is tough because you never know how a young kid is going to develop but the thunder has the advantage of meeting these kids and getting to know them and also talking with coaches and relatives to see what kind of fit they are with our team… Just because a player doesn’t fit our team personalities or oklahoma culture doesn’t mean they won’t be succussful someplace else. If we all had the chance to meet these young men in person we might not be as surprised as we are that they passed on them. I think blair landed in an ideal fit for him and the fact he fell so far is gonna give him that edge to play with a chip on his shoulder to prove everybody wrong. I’m rooting for him…but lets not forget this was a tough decision based on a lot of information.
If the signing of Millsap falls through, we can try to sign Anderson Varejao. With the signing of Shaq, and the Big Z don’t want to move, the Cavs don’t need Andy. Although Varejao is not as good as Millsap on offense, he is energetic on defense and rebounds, and he can play PF or center.