Election year markets
I recently obtained a copy of “Stock Traders’s Almanac 2009,” which contains a wealth of statistical-based information on markets, and a fair amount of common sense. Based on historical and market data compiled over the past 96 years, the publishers report the following impact of presidential elections on the market:
– Post-election years are worse for Republications. The market is likely to fare worse if Sen. John McCain is elected, at least in the first year. Mid-term years have been inferior under Democrats.
– November is much better in election years when the incumbent party is ousted. Stock Trader’s Almanac Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Hirsch refers to this as the “ding-dong-the-witch-is-dead effect.”
– Markets fare better under Democrats while the dollar is stronger under Republications.
– The combination of a Democratic president and a Republican Congress has delivered the best market results.
– The first two years of a presidents’ term market performance lags behind the last two.
Don Mecoy
Business Writer
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