Michael Clayton
Atonement
No Country For Old Men
Juno
There Will Be Blood
This is one of those rare years when I would be perfectly happy if any of the nominated films took home the statuette. But the odds are pretty great that my nihilistic favorite from Joel and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men,” takes home the big one. It is a feel-bad masterpiece full of master’s class acting and remarkable scenes of deft direction that will be taught at film school for decades.
Should and will win: “No Country for Old Men.”
Best director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
His first two films display undeniable directorial gifts, but Hollywood wants to see more from Jason Reitman before he wins the gold. The same goes for Tony Gilroy, though few debuts are as sure-footed as “Michael Clayton.” Julian Schnabel need not worry about picking out his acceptance pajamas, and while Paul Thomas Anderson could squeak a win, it’s likely that the two-headed beast takes top honors.
Should and will win: Ethan and Joel Coen.
Best actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd, The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
In any other year, the top honor would likely go to George Clooney for his title performance in “Michael Clayton.” This was the role in which Clooney transitioned from being a great movie star to being a great actor: His “I am Shiva, the God of death” speech will be played for years during American Film Institute honors. But this year, Clooney is up against Daniel Day-Lewis in the best performance of his career, and that is saying something. Day-Lewis chews the scenery like an irradiated giant termite, and if he does not win, there will be blood. And he’ll drink your milkshake.
Should win: George Clooney.
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis.
Best actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth, The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
Cate Blanchett has a better shot at best supporting actress for “I’m Not There” than she does for her performance in the ridiculous “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” Laura Linney was great in “The Savages,” as was Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose.” But this year’s competition is between one of the grand dames of classic cinema and an upstart ingenue on her way to greatness. Julie Christie already took home a Screen Actors Guild award, and she should start clearing mantel space. “Juno” will be remembered as the role that put rockets under Ellen Page’s career, not as her career peak.
Should win: Ellen Page.
Will win: Julie Christie.
Supporting actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
All the nominated actors are worthy, but only one delivered a career-defining performance. Javier Bardem’s Anton Chigurh comes on like the root of all evil in “No Country for Old Men,” an unerring force against which mere mortals curl up and expire like autumn leaves. Bardem will have that same effect on his Oscar competition.
Should and will win: Javier Bardem.
Supporting actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
In “Gone Baby Gone,” Amy Ryan is the film’s sooty, hardened heart, a woman whose mothering instincts prove nearly fatally flawed. Ryan is often the best guest on series television or a valuable player in great ensemble pieces such as “The Wire.” But “Gone Baby Gone” finally gave Ryan the haunting, terrible role that could shift her career. But she was bested by Tilda Swinton, whose role as an unsure company mouthpiece in “Michael Clayton” was full of the kind of nuances and subtle character ticks that must have seemed like a gift from writer-director Gilroy. Swinton did not squander the gift — her performance is all exposed nerves and uncommonly worthy of the Oscar.
Should and will win: Tilda Swinton.