About those job numbers …
Conservatives have been howling for months about the Obama administration’s “jobs created/jobs saved” statistics. Every official measure of the country’s employment situation has shown the economy shedding jobs throughout the year. Yet the White House has insisted that its policies have saved a number of jobs and has issued figures to prove it.
Unchallengeable, of course. The number of jobs saved is in the eye of the beholder — or the counter. Now ABC News reports the counting has been off, calculating a number of jobs saved to congressional districts that don’t exist. For example, ABC reports, the administration’s stimulus Web site claims 30 jobs were saved in Arizona’s 15th District — but Arizona only has eight districts.
An administration official said human error was to blame. “Some recipients clearly don’t know what congressional district they live in,” a spokesman said, “so they appear to be just throwing in any number. We expected all along that recipients would make mistakes on their congressional districts, on jobs numbers, on award amounts, and so on. Human beings make mistakes.”
Slow rebound
The third quarter’s 3.5 percent growth rate drew cheers from a White House eager for data validating its economic policies. Certainly, growth is better than recession. But a number of analysts quickly pointed out the third-quarter figure was heavily inflated by one-time government spending — cash-for-clunkers, new home buyer tax credit — that overstated the truth health of the economy. One analyst told Reuters’ James Pethokoukis real economic growth probably was closer to 2 percent, which is poor compared with the way economies coming out of recession have performed historically.
The real test will be how much the economy grows without special government spending. While the $787 billion stimulus nudged the economy away from a possible depression, Pethokoukis writes, it wasn’t structured (two-thirds spending, one-third tax cuts) to launch a robust recovery. As a result, a number of experts think high unemployment will persist and be a drag on more rapid growth — allowing those who called for more tax cuts to say, we told you so.
Blame someone else
New polling suggests the shelf life of the Obama administration’s “Blame Bush” strategy might be nearly up. Over his first five months in office, President Barack Obama has found traction in blaming the Bush administration for the economy. But a Rasmussen Reports survey finds 39 percent of voters say current economic problems result from Obama’s policies, a 12-point jump from last month. While 54 percent say current conditions result from the recession Obama inherited from Bush, that’s down eight points from early June. According to Rasmussen, twice as many respondents (60 percent to 30 percent) trust their own economic judgment more than Obama’s. In February 49 percent trusted themselves while 39 trusted the president.
He said what?
“I don’t know anything about cars.” Uh, not exactly what you want to hear from the guy who’s going to lead General Motors when it emerges from bankruptcy protection later this summer. Former AT&T chief Edward E. Whitacre Jr. admits he’s not a car guy, but the man known as “Big Ed” figures business is business, and he was pretty good at it over a 43-year career. The White House is confident Whitacre will do fine, noting that Ford’s current CEO, Alan Mulally, came from Boeing. Still, taxpayers jumpy over the public investment in GM — $20 billion already and another $30 billion to come — must hope Whitacre studies up a bit before he officially takes over. GM can’t afford any more missteps.
Layers of lawyers
“GM Collapses Into Government’s Arm,” screamed a headline in The Wall Street Journal. “A Saga of Decline and Denial,” said another Journal headline. But the headline that really caught our attention was published in the New York Times a week before General Motors’ bankruptcy filing on Monday: “Auto Troubles Touch Many Concerns; Bankruptcy For G.M. Would Tax The Experts.” The story says GM’s troubles are bad for workers and execs, “but it will be putting a lot of lawyers to work.” The government bailout and subsequent bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler could be called the Lawyers Full Employment Act of 2009 - President Obama’s gift to the legal industry. Other booms from GM’s bust will benefit hotels and restaurants near the New York bankruptcy court handling the case. “For law firms,” the Times noted, “big bankruptcies can be very lucrative.” Taxpayers take note: We’re sending lawyers tubs of money to rescue another corporate giant.
Aporkalypse now
Nothing like a pandemic scare to bring out the capitalists and the scam artists. One man’s swine flu symptom is another’s fatter pigskin wallet. Stores and Web sites have sold out of masks and hand sanitizers. Web sites created overnight are offering illegal and counterfeit flu drugs. Investment advisors are pointing out how to leverage swine flu into market gains. Designer breathing masks are on order, along with T-shirts that say “My folks went to Mexico and all they brought me was the flu.” Swine flu video games invite players to fatally inoculate pigs. An Australian newspaper dubbed this “aporkalypse humor,” but the flu is no laughing matter to pork producers and the capitalists who’ve been hurting due to curtailed travel and sick employees. Not to mention the survivors of those killed by this outbreak.
Relatively ‘rich’
A conservative group puts Oklahoma in the top 15 of states in terms of “economic competitiveness.” The American Legislative Exchange Council favors states that aren’t trying to tax their way back into solvency. Utah was tapped as the best in this regard; New York is the worst. Oklahoma did well because of growth in gross domestic product and personal income between 1997 and 2007. The “Rich States, Poor States” report also favors states with right-to-work laws and a minimum wage that doesn’t exceed the federal floor rate. By these measures, Oklahoma ranks low among those who favor higher taxes, closed union shops and a state minimum wage. People and business leaders looking for a place to prosper, though, are put off by states such as New York and California. An example is Arthur B. Laffer, one of the study’s authors, who’s famous (or infamous if you don’t like him) for his supply-side economics position. He moved from California (ranked 43rd in the study) to Tennessee (ranked 9th).
No laughing matter
Come to think about it, there was a whistling-past-the-graveyard quality to much of President Barack Obama’s “60 Minutes” interview Sunday with CBS’ Steve Kroft. You know, the nervous kind of laughter where the laugher actually is trying to camouflage real concern about what lies beneath.
Kroft had Obama laughing about a number of economic-related items, including the shelf life of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who’s stepped in more potholes recently than a road worker. As Obama laughed off the notion Geithner was in some political trouble, Kroft, looking bewildered by the president’s mirth, asked him if he was “punch drunk.”
Maybe Obama’s not nervous. Maybe he should be. Yukking it up with Jay Leno last week and then adopting a what-me-worry? pose on “60 Minutes” seemed a little tone deaf to the public’s souring mood.
Smile of cars
What’s it going to take to put you in the driver’s seat of that new car? This should put a smile on your face: Part of the federal stimulus package is a deduction on taxes paid when new cars are purchased. Congress considered, but rejected, another deduction for the interest paid on new car loans. Oklahoma doesn’t assess sales taxes on vehicles. Instead, it takes 3.25 percent of the purchase price on new cars (used cars also have an excise tax, but it’s figured differently). Motor vehicle excise tax collections led all categories in declines for January, compared to January of 2008. The vehicle tax decline was nearly 60 percent. Most car buyers will qualify for the new federal deduction. So in addition to those dealer incentives, Uncle Sam is offering one of his own. Of course all of us will ultimately pay for this deduction through the increase in the federal debt.
Hold the pork
Stimulus package? Who needs pork when you can schedule an election that pumps nearly $19 million into Oklahoma’s economy? A Tulsa World analysis of 2008 election spending reveals a massive amount of cash coming from lawyers and lobbyists (some of it to fight tort reform), a nearly equal amount coming from the oil and gas industry and sizeable chunks coming from health care professional and Indian tribes. The World says the spending figure is a conservative estimate and further digging will swell the numbers. Twenty cents of every dollar contributed came from lawyers, lobbyists or the petroleum industry. Lawyers and lobbyists alone coughed up nearly $2 million. The oil and gas industry was right behind them. Do we need more elections to generate economic activity? Perish the thought! By the way, trial lawyer spending to stop tort reform was a bad investment: Republicans still took over the Legislature.
