Gallup’s generic ballot

It’s only the end of August/beginning of September, but the Gallup poll’s generic  ballot numbers should be terrifying for Democrats. This is the question where Gallup (and other pollsters) ask respondents to say whether they intend to vote for generic Republican candidate for Congress or a generic Democratic candidate. It, along with the sitting president’s job-approval rating, is one of the best predictors of the mid-term elections in November. Currently, Gallup shows the Republicans at +10 — the GOP’s largest margin ever. Things could change, sure. But that kind of Republican edge on the generic ballot suggests to many analysts — cue up The Safaris — a “wave” election this fall in which the GOP could win 50 or more seats in the House of Representatives. (Time magazine’s Mark Halperin says it could go as high as 60). That would be a wipe-out, folks, given the fact Republicans only need a pickup of  40 for control of the House.

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