From the National Weather Service, Tulsa
From the National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office:
The CAP index has started to come down as of the 1pm data… the weakening CAP was on the edge of our grid running north-south across central OK… the trend suggests storm initiated could be by 4pm… which is in line with model data and satellite trends showing cumulus clouds increasing out west…our time lagged local model ensemble of updraft helicity is somewhat scattered… meaning less confidence in the data so far… but it does suggest a tornado threat developing in northeast OK… with the Tulsa metro area having some of the higher potential.
As of 1:43 p.m. Sunday, Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD…
TO ENID…TO EL RENO…TO LAWTON…AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAWTON…TO PAULS VALLEY…TO SEMINOLE. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA…AND IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ARNETT…TO TALOGA…TO GRANDFIELD…TO SEYMOUR.
TIMING… THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 2 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO MORE THAN 70 MPH
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
MEDFORD AND PONCA CITY.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY…WARM…HUMID…AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON…DAYTIME HEATING
IS FORECAST TO GREATLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE…PLUS
SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE…SHOULD PUSH A FEW UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS…PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…100 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
STRONG WINDS…LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY…MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Sunday forecast map, National Weather Service, Tulsa
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Tulsa
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
SUN MAY 19 2013
…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE.
ONSET…AFTER 5 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…CRITICAL.
AREA…NORTH OF A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE.
ONSET…AFTER 5 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK…ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER 10 PM.
DISCUSSION…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON…AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES
ACROSS THE REGION…AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FORECAST WIND SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL…POSSIBLY BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AROUND SUNSET THROUGH MID EVENING…AND
ANY ONGOING SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY ATTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WITH A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE STORM MODE MAY TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN LATE
TONIGHT.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED…AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL…HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION…AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRESENT FROM THE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY…HIGH INSTABILITY…AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES…EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT…THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
WHAT TRANSPIRES MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BY LATE WEEK…HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING…AND PEAK AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY DAMAGE RESPONSE ACTIVITIES SHOULD
REMAIN IN CLOSE WEATHER COORDINATION GIVEN THE MULTI-DAY SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE AHEAD.
Sunday forecast map, National Weather Service, Norman
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD…
TO ENID…TO EL RENO…TO LAWTON…AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAWTON…TO PAULS VALLEY…TO SEMINOLE. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA…AND IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ARNETT…TO HOBART…TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO MORE THAN 70 MPH
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
MEDFORD AND PONCA CITY.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY…WARM…HUMID…AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON…DAYTIME HEATING
IS FORECAST TO GREATLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE…PLUS
SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE…SHOULD PUSH A FEW UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS…PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…100 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
STRONG WINDS…LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY…MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Gasoline prices hit all-time high in Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City reached a costly milestone Sunday as gas prices reached their highest point ever at $3.963 a gallon, according to AAA Oklahoma.
The previous high was July 16, 2008, when the city’s average price was $3.909.
“The good news for the Oklahoma City motorist in all this, if there is any, is that it appears over the last eight hours, gas prices have dropped just a bit,” AAA Oklahoma spokesman Chuck Mai said Sunday morning. “Whether this is a trend or just a blip is anybody’s guess.”
High fuel prices plagued consumers and retailers last week, as the state’s average price pushed past the national average for the first time in five years.
Oklahoma’s statewide average continues to inch upward, now at $3.904 but the Tulsa average actually dropped three-tenths of a cent overnight to $3.846 this morning.
The state’s all-time high of $3.955 was set on July 16, 2008. Tulsa’s record high was also set that day: $3.927.
“It appears at least part of the reason for these breathtaking price spikes is limited gas supplies caused by a couple of refineries in the upper Midwest going offline,” said Mai. “But these shortages have only impacted selected locations.
“For example, the average price for regular gasoline in Texas today is $3.43, which is 47 cents below that of Oklahoma. And Arkansas’ average today is 48 cents below Oklahoma’s.”
In the contiguous 48 states, six have gas price averages today above $4 per gallon: Minnesota, $4.272; North Dakota, $4.204; California, $4.057; Illinois, $4.05; Nebraska, $4.031; and Iowa, $4.002.
Graduation advice 2013: Kelsey Karper of the Oklahoma Visual Arts Coalition
The full version of this story, which appears in Sunday’s Life section of The Oklahoman, was compiled by The Oklahoman’s Features and Entertainment Staff, including yours truly. To read graduation advice from other Oklahomans, go to NewsOK.com.
Beyond ‘laugh often,’ ‘live much’: unique words of wisdom
If they knew then what they know now, here is what an assortment of Oklahomans would say to today’s graduates — or wish they had heard at their own graduation.
Thousands of Oklahoma students are graduating in the month of May; many this weekend. We asked some notable and interesting Oklahomans what they’d say to this year’s graduates, or what they wish they would have heard at their graduations. Here’s what one of them had to say:
Kelsey Karper, associate director of the Oklahoma Visual Arts Coalition: ‘Discover what you truly love’
“Congratulations, graduates! At this time when everyone is asking you what you’ll do next, take time to ignore the outside pressures and look within. Ask yourself what you want to do next. Follow your own passion. Pursue your own true desires. Don’t let the world around you make the decisions that will shape your life. Don’t worry if you’re not sure what you want to do with the rest of your life. Figuring it out takes time. Do whatever it takes to discover what you truly love, then go for it with all you’ve got!”
-BAM
Graduation advice 2013: Red dirt music star Jason Boland
The full version of this story, which appears in Sunday’s Life section of The Oklahoman, was compiled by The Oklahoman’s Features and Entertainment Staff, including yours truly. To read graduation advice from other Oklahomans, go to NewsOK.com.
Beyond ‘laugh often,’ ‘live much’: unique words of wisdom
If they knew then what they know now, here is what an assortment of Oklahomans would say to today’s graduates — or wish they had heard at their own graduation.
Thousands of Oklahoma students are graduating in the month of May; many this weekend. We asked some notable and interesting Oklahomans what they’d say to this year’s graduates, or what they wish they would have heard at their graduations. Here’s what one of them had to say:
Jason Boland, red dirt music star, Harrah native, former Oklahoma State University student: ‘Do something with meaning’
“Go on to college. Go try to keep believing in something that’s a little bit greater than maybe just how we trade for food or buy a place to live. …
“I was going to college and just not really knowing what I wanted to do. That’s why I don’t really take lightly what (red dirt music pioneers) Bob Childers and Randy Crouch and Tom Skinner and Brad Piccolo and John Cooper and Ben Han and all those guys, what they meant. Because they said don’t be afraid and do something you love. … The rest will work itself out. Do something with meaning. …
“I do not want to wax Bill and Ted here, but have some fun but not too much fun, you crazy kids. … Enjoy it and don’t get lost in the enjoyment.”
-BAM
Graduation advice 2013: Toby and Krystal Keith
Toby Keith and his daughter, Krystal, perform during the 38th annual Country Music Awards, held at the Grand Ole Opry in Nashville, Tennessee, on Tuesday, November 9, 2004. After theri duet “Mockingbird” became a hit, Krystal was eager to embark on her music career, but her dad made her go to college first. Her first EP was released last month. (AP file)
The full version of this story, which appears in Sunday’s Life section of The Oklahoman, was compiled by The Oklahoman’s Features and Entertainment Staff, including yours truly. To read graduation advice from other Oklahomans, go to NewsOK.com.
Beyond ‘laugh often,’ ‘live much’: unique words of wisdom
If they knew then what they know now, here is what an assortment of Oklahomans would say to today’s graduates — or wish they had heard at their own graduation.
Thousands of Oklahoma students are graduating in the month of May; many this weekend. We asked some notable and interesting Oklahomans what they’d say to this year’s graduates, or what they wish they would have heard at their graduations.
First on our list are thoughts about college from a father-daughter team, Oklahoma country music superstar Toby Keith, who wanted his daughter to go to college, and his daughter, Krystal Keith, emerging recording artist, who didn’t:
Toby Keith, 51, Oklahoma country music superstar: ‘Be relentless’
“You just have to be really careful because some of these colleges are teaching such a political view in classes that have nothing to do with politics … but I still think it’s important. You just have to research it. Find your way. Have a game plan and carry it out.
“And be relentless. Don’t let anybody outwork you. I told them the day I signed my record deal, ‘There may be people out-sing or out-write me or sell more tickets than me or more records than me, but they’ll never outwork me.’ And they never did. There was no one that put in the time that we did. …
“So be productive, have a plan and carry it out. And give back.”
——————————————————————–
Krystal Keith, 27, emerging Oklahoma country music recording artist who just released her first EP, daughter of country superstar Toby Keith and University of Oklahoma graduate
“After high school, I was like ‘Nashville, here I come.’ And he (her country superstar dad, Toby Keith) was like, ‘No, I said college.’ I was like, ‘No you didn’t. You just said graduation,’ and he’s like ‘college graduation.’
“I kind of thought that I would work my way out of having to go to college. I got to do ‘Mockingbird’ (a hit duet with her dad), and I had the fever. So I kind of didn’t really take school seriously the first year or two, and he did not give in. I thought that he would eventually be like, ‘OK, college isn’t your thing; let’s just go into music.’ And he held his ground and just was really firm on it. Finally, I was just like ‘You know what, he’s not giving in. I’ve gotta get this over with or I’ll never have a music career.’ And I literally did four years of school in 2 ½ years; I took every intercession, everything. …
“He definitely knew what he was doing. I can’t tell you how immensely important the experience of college was on my life, just finding out who you are and just getting life experience and being around other people. The whole experience matures you, so to have the life skills and life knowledge I have now, it helps me with my writing. It helps me with every aspect of my career. You know, I took business classes, so that helps me on the business side of it. If I would have gone into this industry at 18, there’s no telling where I’d be right now. No telling. It really gives you the opportunity to become who you need to be to survive in this world.
“I fought it, and I’m actually thinking about getting my MBA now. So to go from somebody that really fought having to go to college at all to somebody that’s considering an MBA just because I want it is a pretty big turnaround I would say.”
-BAM
