Thoughts on Durant
During a taping of one of our NewsOK.tv videos Tuesday I said Durant would average more than 24 points this season. Immediately after I said it I wanted to take it back. We’ll, I’m doing just that right here right now. I don’t think Durant will see that much of a jump in his point production.
Last year’s ROY winner averaged 20.3 points in Seattle. A more realistic increase than the 24.3 points I think I predicted on the video is a 22.7-point average. That’s an increase of 2.4 points per game, which is a solid jump. That figure would have tied him with Milwaukee’s Michael Redd for eighth in the league last year. The 24.3 I think I said on the video would have put him sixth behind LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire.
Durant shot only 43 percent from the field last season, 28.8 percent from 3-point land. The top seven scorers from last season all shot 45 percent or better from the field and, excluding Stoudemire and James, 35 percent or better from the 3-point line.
Between Durant now having a year of experience and the addition of Russell Westbrook, whose drive and dish ability should get Durant more open looks, there’s a strong chance Durant’s shooting percentages will rise to about 45 percent from the field and 31 percent or so from deep. I don’t expect his shooting percentages to increase drastically simply because he’s still relied on for so much of the team’s offense. That leads to a number of forced shots and last-second prayers to beat the shot clock.
But what should help Durant are the added offensive threats in Westbrook, Desmond Mason and Joe Smith. While defenses will still key on KD, the new additions, along with Jeff Green expected to be more of a focal point on offense, should free up Durant for a few more opportunities.
KD also should get to the foul line more often. He attempted 448 free throws last year, 18th most in the league, and converted an excellent percentage at 87.3 percent, 11th best in the league. By comparison, the league’s best scorers — Iverson (797), James (771), Bryant (742), Stoudemire (691) and Anthony (590) — got to the line a lot more frequently. It’s unrealistic to expect Durant to get that high. But Redd is a good comparison.
Redd attempted 490 free throws, 42 more than KD in eight less games. Redd finished with an average of 1.2 more attempts per contest than Durant, who surprisingly was a better free throw shooter than Redd last year. But Redd made 0.7 more per game from the foul line.
Between more free throw attempts and better looks from the field, a 2.4-point increase likely is a good projection of Durant’s scoring this season.
-DM-
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Comments
But Durants scoring average was higher after the All Star break, when he stopped taking so many outside shots and began driving the basket to either shoot or dish. I don’t know if we can measure him by the first half of last season.
yeah, 24 might be a stretch, considering all of the other offensive threats he’ll be working with now. i just hope some of these kids are thinking about defense!
Darnell, I absolutely love reading your stuff. I agree with you the majority of the time but it’s the insight and way you deliver these thoughts that really make me feel like I’m also a part of this team. Though I don’t think this year is going to be a huge turnaround from last season, I’m excited about finally getting a team in my hometown. Keep bringing it every week, D. I love it!
Roll Thunder.