Explaining the Big 12 Power Rankings
Many have inquired how I determine my weekly Big 12 Power Rankings.
Weekly polls, for the most part, represent preseason expectations against how a team has done to date. This Power Poll represents how teams would do against each other at a neutral site.
This isn’t simply about which team has the better record each week. This isn’t about 4-0 vs. 3-1 or 2-2 vs. 3-2.
As it stands right now in the Power Rankings, Texas would have the best chance of beating everyone in the Big 12, so the Longhorns belong at No. 1.
Kansas would have the best chance of beating everyone, except Texas, and is at No. 2; Nebraska would beat everyone but Texas and Kansas, and is at No. 3; and so on.
I believe right now Texas, Kansas and Nebraska would beat Oklahoma at a neutral site, while Oklahoma State would lose to Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, OU and Missouri.
This is a very fluid situation. It represents how a team’s status improves or gets worse. Plus, power rankings tend to work themselves out naturally when common opponents are involved.
The Sooners and Cowboys have underachieved to date.
The two teams that beat OU have already suffered lopsided losses. Every team OSU has played this season lost last weekend, as did the Cowboys’ next opponent, Texas A&M. These losses will hurt OU and OSU in the BCS computer rankings, but quality victories against quality opponents in conference play will change all that.
And as their status changes, so will the Power Rankings.
Rank and file
Calculating how Oklahoma football coaches Bob Stoops, Barry Switzer and Bud Wilkinson performed against ranked opponents is not an exact science. But as was pointed out in Monday’s column, it’s a solid gauge of determining how they did in big games.
The Associated Press poll has varied throughout time, from when they were released to how many teams were ranked.
- From 1936 through 1949, there was no AP preseason poll and the first poll was not taken until early October.
- Polls were not taken after bowl games until 1968.
- In 1989, the AP Top 20 was expanded to the Top 25.
Obviously, the overall records against ranked opponents for Stoops (33-15; .688), Switzer (43-21-4; .662) and Wilkinson (28-18-1; .606) remain the same.
The AP poll consisted of 20 teams throughout the college coaching careers of Switzer and Wilkinson.
Against teams ranked No. 21-25, Stoops has a record of 6-2 (.750).
As for Wilkinson, there was no preseason poll for his first three seasons at OU, but during that time none of his early season opponents likely would have been ranked.
There were advantages and disadvantages for each coach.
- Switzer had to face an elite Nebraska team every season, and still went 12-5 against Tom Osborne and the Cornhuskers.
- Stoops has had to play Texas Tech and Texas A&M on seven occasions when they have been ranked. Kansas State, a program Stoops helped build as an assistant, has been ranked four times in six head-to-head meetings. The Wildcats were never ranked in 33 meetings against Switzer and Wilkinson.
- Wilkinson went 1-5 against Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish were ranked only twice.
Bradford to strike another pose?
Much has happened in college football since Oklahoma junior quarterback Sam Bradford went down with a shoulder injury in the season opener. What has not happened is a clear-cut leader in the Heisman Trophy race.
IF Bradford somehow can return in time for the Miami game in 11 days, and IF the Sooners can win the rest of their regular-season games, and IF Bradford can post efficiency numbers similar to a year ago, we could end up with an unprecedented result.
Bradford has become a monstrous long shot for a second straight Heisman, but the notion isn’t nearly as farfetched as originally portrayed after he injured his right (throwing) shoulder late in the first half against Brigham Young on Sept. 5 in Arlington, Texas.
This year’s Heisman race is off to a slow start, which is to Bradford’s benefit. Statistically, no one has taken a commanding lead.
Arkansas sophomore quarterback Ryan Mallett leads the nation in passing efficiency, and is followed by Notre Dame junior Jimmy Clausen, both of whom have already lost.
Florida quarterback and 2007 winner Tim Tebow is unbeaten, but has modest numbers (five TD passes; one interception) and ranks No. 7 nationally in passing efficiency. In the eyes of many Heisman voters — particularly in the Southeast — his leadership qualities again will garner heavy consideration.
All season, locals have wondered what’s wrong with Oklahoma State senior quarterback Zac Robinson, but Robinson (34th) ranks three spots ahead of Texas senior quarterback and preseason Heisman pick Colt McCoy (37th), who battled the flu last week against Texas Tech. Mississippi junior quarterback Jevan Snead, another preseason favorite, ranks 36th in passing efficiency.
Two new candidates to watch: Houston junior quarterback Case Keenum and Miami sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris are off to impressive starts and could quickly become contenders.
California junior Jahvid Best leads the running back candidates. He is averaging 7.8 yards-per-carry, but a hardly overwhelming 137.3 yards-per-game. Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers is at 114.0 yards-per-game, USC junior Joe McKnight is at 101.7 yards and Georgia Tech junior Jonathan Dwyer is at a measly 56.0 yards-per-game.
Oklahoma State junior receiver/returner Dez Bryant is a big-name, big-gain candidate, but he already has dropped at least five passes and made poor decisions.
Ohio State’s Archie Griffin (1974-75) remains the only person to win consecutive Heismans and no player has ever won a Heisman after missing 2 1/2 games that season. For some voters, Bradford’s injury will eliminate him from consideration no matter what he does after his return.
Then again, who knows? If Bradford returns with his remarkable qualities intact, the 2008 winner could be transformed into a sentimental choice.
Except in the Southeast, of course.
Tournament time for Tulsa
Tulsa will get to show off the BOK Center for the 2011 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Tournament sites were revealed Monday and Tulsa will host first- and second-round games, marking the first time since 1985 the NCAA men’s tournament has been staged in the city. The Mabee Center at ORU is the only Tulsa facility to previously host the men’s tournament (1974, 1975, 1978, 1982, 1985).
First- and second-round men’s tournament games will be held this upcoming season at the Ford Center, which unfortunately will be only halfway though its $100 million renovation project.
The Ford Center is bidding as a site for the 2011 NCAA women’s tournament, which would simultaneously put two NCAA tournaments inside state lines for the second straight year.
This March, the Ford Center will host the men’s tournament on March 18 and 20, while women’s first- and second-round games will be held at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman on March 21 and 23.
No need for Tulsa and Oklahoma City to argue over who’s hosting what event or how often. This is great news for everybody.
A football state continues to enhance its stature in basketball with repeated NCAA tournaments, plus the addition of the NBA Thunder.
Ford’s deal an overreaction
On Feb. 10 of this year, the Oklahoma State men’s basketball team was 14-9 overall, 3-6 in Big 12 play, the head coach was shouting f-bombs at his players, and several folks at OSU were tilting their heads, wondering if Travis Ford was the right hire.
Seven measly months later, the school is so enraptured with Ford, he now has a 10-year contract.
Ten years?
(Say and think what you will about former Cowboys coach Eddie Sutton, but the man returned OSU basketball to greatness, deserved twice as much pay as he ever got and never got close to being offered a 10-year deal.)
Before Ford arrived at Stillwater, he made $400,000 his final season at UMass. Starting this season, he’ll make $1.8 million with a guaranteed bump of at least $100,000 annually through the 2018-19 season. All this after going 23-12 and winning one NCAA Tournament game in his first season with the Cowboys.
Look, I’m all for giving a man his due, but is the 39-year-old Ford due this much this soon?
What if the Cowboys had knocked off Pittsburgh in the second round last season and advanced to the Sweet 16? Would Ford have broken the $2 million barrier and been given a lifetime contract?
Last season was the Cowboys’ first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2005, and for that Ford deserves credit. But so do his players, particuarly senior point guard Byron Eaton, who excelled at key moments down the stretch as OSU won nine of its final 12 games.
Ford’s new contract was an overreaction to what started in the football offices.
Basketball has a higher ceiling than football at OSU. Ford has a better chance at winning more conference or national championships than football does. There is really no debating this and Cowboys football coach Mike Gundy just signed a seven-year, $15.7 million deal.
If OSU is going to fork over big bucks for football coaches, yet the school has a greater chance for success in basketball, it had better offer at least as much to keep Ford on board. That’s precisely what happened, which is why Gundy and Ford will both make $1.8 million this season.
Ford now trails only Bill Self of Kansas ($3 million) and Rick Barnes of Texas ($2 million) in Big 12 coaching salaries. Meanwhile, Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel, who lost the South Regional final to eventual champion North Carolina last season, received a new deal in June, but will now make $300,000 less than Ford.
Ford was born, raised and played hoops in Kentucky and someday figures to be a candidate for the UK job, which he no doubt has used as leverage since the day he arrived in Stillwater.
To cover its asset, OSU bumped Ford’s buyout clause up from $1 million to $3 million. Doesn’t matter. If Kentucky wants Ford, it will get Ford.
Interestingly enough, the day Ford was hired at OSU (April 18, 2007), athletic director Mike Holder said he hoped Kentucky would someday want to hire Ford. “That’s a high-class problem to have,” Holder said that day.
Some prominent OSU boosters think Ford could win a national title coaching the Cowboys, and that might be true. But shouldn’t you offer that coach a 10-year contract after he wins the national title, not before?
O-line free-for-all
Whenever there are changes in a college football team’s starting lineup, the earlier the better for the coaches who have to make those changes.
Sunday or Monday are the optimum days to fill out that week’s starting lineup. Waiting until Tuesday is considered late. Wednesday might be acceptable in an either-or scenario at a certain position where a starter is nicked up and his backup gets extra reps.
However, potential changes along the Sooners’ offensive line are not an either-or scenario. It’s more like a free-for-all.
After last Saturday’s 14-13 loss against Brigham Young, during which 12 offensive penalties were committed, OU’s O-line is in the midst of a line dance.
During Tuesday’s media luncheon, Sooners coach Bob Stoops and offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson did not share specifics as to which player might play where and replace whom.
“To me, I’ve got a couple of guys who I think can and should perform well who didn’t,” Wilson said. “I’m wondering and questioning why, and I’m tired of waiting and asking, so there needs to be a great sense of urgency from men to play at a better level, or some young guys are going to have an opportunity. ‘If you want to play, let’s go. It’s not a tryout. It’s not an open door. It’s not a mind game.’
“But it is concerning if you’re a third-, fourth- or fifth-year guy and you’re not playing at the level that we can play at. And if that’s the case, maybe you don’t want to, or maybe you can’t, and maybe we need to make some adjustments. I don’t think you wait until Friday and say, ‘You’re the starter.’ And I don’t think you come in (Monday) and make wholesale changes.
“The way we performed (against BYU) is unacceptable, and it needs to be fixed immediately. Right now. Either you choose to fix it or we’re going to fix it with something else, or another direction, or another player, another scheme or huddle-up, whatever. We can not and are not going to play that way.”
No doomsday clock at OSU
In the past, as the clock wound down in the fourth quarter, the Oklahoma State football faithful frequently wiggled in their seats. They watched with one eye closed, sometimes both eyes closed. And this was when their team was ahead.
Insultingly, it became known as the “Aggie Factor,” the ability to snatch defeat from victory.
But there was no such uneasiness in Saturday’s 24-10 season-opening victory against No. 13 Georgia. At no time did the No. 9 Cowboys show signs of faltering in the closing minutes.
Maybe it was because no fan wearing orange had left the building. Maybe it was because Boone Pickens Stadium finally was finished and Lewis Field finally was extinct. Maybe it was because the OSU defense had displayed an unexpected stubbornness. Maybe it was because this year’s Cowboys appear to be different. Maybe it was because of all the above.
Whatever the reason, this final quarter was not a place where victory went to die. In the past, the uncertainty was palpable as mumbles and groans cascaded down from the stands. On Saturday, there was an extreme sense of confidence displayed by OSU players and fans.
Sure, it’s only one game, but it’s a start. It’s something the Cowboys and their fans can build on for potential fourth-quarter uncertainty that might come later this season against Houston, or Missouri, or Texas or Texas Tech.
With the formal elimination of Lewis Field perhaps came the elimination of ghosts that arrived in the fourth quarter.
Boone Pickens Stadium looks nothing like Lewis Field. And during the fourth quarter against Georgia, it felt nothing like the relic, either.
Let’s (not) shake on it
Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy remained non-committal Monday as to whether his team would shake hands with Georgia players at midfield before their game Saturday at Boone Pickens Stadium.
“I’d rather not talk about that subject right now,” Gundy said during his first weekly media luncheon.
The American Football Coaches Association has asked teams to shake hands before their season-opening games as a sign of good sportsmanship. The gesture is for season openers only and is not mandatory.
Gundy said he has greater concerns right now than whether to shake hands, such as what play to call on third-and-3.
Gundy said he asked his 13-year-old son, Gavin, what he thought of shaking hands before the game. Gavin said he wouldn’t do it if it was against an opponent that would make it a competitive game.
Oklahoma State vs. Georgia certainly figures to be competitive. It rates as the most prolific home opener in OSU history and one of the nation’s top games this weekend.
“Our first concern is you have 110 or 115 people in uniform for us, and they’re going to bring approximately 70,” Gundy said. “It just takes one guy to pop off, and I don’t know if we could get them broken up before the game. That’s one thing that concerns us.”
Gundy said he has tremendous respect for Georgia coach Mark Richt and for AFCA chairman Grant Teaff, who is heading the handshake request.
“It’s a difficult decision,” said Gundy, who smiled before adding, “I know what Gary Ward would have done.”
The extremely competitive Ward, former baseball coach at OSU, would shake hands with the opposing head coach, but did not allow his players to shake hands with an opponent.
OSU vs. Georgia continues to intensify each day, and I say don’t flirt with fire. The teams should shake hands after the game, not before.
Hoping history repeats itself
As the saying goes, “history is old news.”
But with Big 12 football season finally about to begin, here’s hoping history repeats itself — all the way up to the very end.
Here’s hoping the Big 12 South has three teams stay in the Top 10 pretty much all season. Here’s hoping the Big 12 once again has the maximum two BCS bowl representatives. Here’s hoping a Big 12 team makes it to the national title game for the seventh time in the league’s 14th year of existence. And here’s hoping for the league’s elusive third national crown.
The most compelling reason to be excited about Big 12 football this season is because of what happened last season, particularly in the South. Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are all in the preseason Top 10 for the first time ever. Don’t forget about Texas Tech. Baylor is getting better. Might the Big 12 South squeeze five teams into the Top 25, the Top 20, maybe higher?
True, no one should live in the past. But in this case, there’s nothing wrong with hoping history repeats itself — all the way up to the very end.
Trying to determine who’s best
We knew the Big 12 South is the best division in the history of college football. Granted, divisional play has a pretty small window in BCS conferences, only going back to 1992 in the expanded SEC, the formation of the Big 12 in 1996 and to 2005 in the ACC.
Researching other divisional conferences was simple enough. Researching all conferences throughout time was a much bigger task.
Then all these questions started popping up: What are the fairest parameters to use to determine the strength of a conference? Are the final rankings the best way, bowl results, schedule strength, the top teams only, the league as a whole? And where does all this evaluating stop?
What about trying to compare college football to divisions in other sports, then coming up with an overall power ranking? Can it be done? Should it be done?
Do divisions add to a league’s strength, or do they fracture it? Are divisional races better when only the champion advances to postseason play, or when there are multiple playoff spots up for grabs?
As you can tell, there were a bunch of questions without a bunch of specific answers. The end result of this divisional quest can be found in the center of Monday’s sports section in The Oklahoman.
Feel free to share your thoughts to any of the aforementioned questions, or let me know how you feel about the results. What was right? What was wrong? Who is missing? Who doesn’t belong?
