About those stimulus job numbers so far
New figures were released this morning on Recovery.org about the estimated jobs saved and/or created from stimulus spending so far. The numbers are coming from the first-round of information reported by contractors earlier this month.
In Oklahoma, the results are underwhelming to say the least. According to the site, Oklahoma companies have signed 120 stimulus-related contracts so far for $92.3 million. And the jobs created or saved? Just 202.
Nationwide, about 30,300 jobs have been created or saved so far, according to data collected so far. That’s not much considering the economy needs to be creating about 100,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.
One White House economist, Jared Bernstein, said it’s still too early to say whether the stimulus is working as intended. But he pointed to “private estimates” as proof that many more jobs are being created.
“It is too soon to draw any global conclusions from this partial and preliminary data, as it reports on just $16 billion of the $339 billion in Recovery Act efforts before September 30th, but the early indications are quite positive. The direct count by Recovery Act recipients of jobs created or saved from this small percentage of the Recovery Act exceeds our projections. All signs — from private estimates to this fragmentary data — point to the conclusion that the Recovery Act did indeed create or save about 1 million jobs in its first seven months, a much needed lift in a very difficult period for our economy. We look forward to the much larger, comprehensive report due on October 30th.”
Just last month, the president’s Council of Economic Advisers put out its estimates of stimulus-related job creation in the first-quarter. Here’s the relevant table:
Source: The White House
Buried deep in the report, the council says it used three methodologies to estimate job impacts by state.
None of these three approaches does a perfect job of measuring the geographic distribution of employment effects, and each has advantages and disadvantages relative to the others. Thus, to obtain a reasonable estimate of state-level job impacts, we use a simple average of the three approaches.
Of course, simply because their populations are larger, we estimate that larger states have seen larger jobs impacts. Similarly, because their employment is more cyclically sensitive, industrial states are estimated to have had larger employment effects relative to their populations. Finally, both because of their industrial composition and because state fiscal relief and aid to those directly impacted have been larger in states hit harder by the recession, we estimate that states with higher unemployment rates at the time of passage have seen larger employment effects of the ARRA relative to their populations.
The Washington Post has a good wrap-up of the expectations created, and the reality of reporting job figures, here:
… Others say the reports being released this month will underscore the challenge of trying to quantify the jobs being created. Initial recipients of the stimulus money, and any government or company that they pass it on to, must report how they use the funds and how many jobs they create. But the reporting requirements do not apply to additional levels of contractors who receive the money.
My advice is to treat those early job numbers as estimates and best-guesses, at least until we get more information later this month and in the months to come.
To find out who’s getting stimulus contracts so far, just check out Recovery.gov. Here’s a list of the Oklahoma contracts signed as of earlier this month, either by Oklahoma companies or for work to be done in Oklahoma. (We also have a link to the state government’s stimulus site on our Right to Know page, which includes other databases of local interest.)
–Paul
Dueling health insurance stats
Figuring out who has health insurance coverage and who doesn’t is an ongoing challenge for policymakers.
Do you count people who went without coverage for a week or a month as being uninsured? What about the ranks of the long-term uninsured? How many of them might qualify for government programs or subsidies but just haven’t signed up?
It’s not an easy task, which is why today’s story on the numbers of uninsured might shed some light on the issue. The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, a wide-ranging sample of 3 million households each year, asked a health insurance coverage question for the first time last year. For a look at how the question was asked, check out page 8 of the survey form.
Our analysis of the Census’ ACS estimates showed that about 22 percent of Oklahomans under 65 went without health insurance coverage when they were surveyed last year. That put Oklahoma at No. 5 in the nation for the percentage of residents younger than 65 without health insurance.
Of course, it didn’t help matters that the Census just two weeks ago put out another survey that had information on the uninsured from its long-running Current Population Survey. That survey showed an estimated 15.9 percent of Oklahomans of all ages were without health insurance in the CPS’ 2-year average from 2007 to 2008. (For more discussion of that survey data, see the Oklahoma Policy Institute posting here, and the thoughts from our editorial page here. The journal Health Affairs also has a more detailed discussion of the CPS health insurance estimates here.)
David Blatt, policy director for the Oklahoma Policy Institute, said that no matter which Census survey policymakers use, “I think the true numbers lie somewhere between those estimates. Whatever the number, we have a heck of a lot of Oklahomans without health insurance coverage.”
Researchers are hopeful that the bigger survey sample of the American Community Survey will provide more accurate figures in the future. Here’s how the University of Minnesota’s State Health Access Data Assistance Center, or SHADAC, puts it:
The ACS is a great development for health services researchers, but as with all surveys, it will have its problems. In summary, the greatest advantage is that the ACS will be a regular source of health insurance coverage for local areas. The timely releases will fill a significant information void. The biggest limitation is format of the health insurance item is and the ability of respondents to recognize what type of health insurance coverage they have. Some error is always expected in survey research, and we have yet to see how it will compare to other surveys.
In the meantime, here’s a look at some of the latest uninsured estimates from the Census’ American Community Survey for the Oklahoma counties and Congressional districts covered under the latest 2008 survey data:
Finally, NPR has a nice set of interactive maps using the same data:
–Paul
Obama’s school speech visualized
President Obama’s school speech has been big news for the last week or so, and today’s the day. The White House released the text of Obama’s speech, so I ran it through Wordle to get a text cloud.
–Paul
What does the Internet know about you?
We volunteer more and more information to the Internet, but have you stopped to think about what can be gleaned about you, your lifestyle and family from blog posts, social media sites and friends’ pages?
I came across this site, Personas, earlier this week. It’s an online art “installation” from an exhibit at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. You plug in your name, and it performs some complex, behind-the-scenes calculations using algorithms and data mining techniques to see what it can find out about you on the Internet. Think of it as a vanity Google search on speed.
Here’s what it said it found out about me from the Internet, split into broad categories:
Of course, as the installation notes, it’s meant as a critique of information gathering and data mining.
Personas attempts to demonstrate this process. It does not reveal where its data comes from, nor does it allow you to weight the inputs. The model designer chose how to build the pre-determined categories and underlying statistical techniques to reflect her world view and a priori knowledge. Uncanny insights and inaccuracies are a part of the intended experience, inviting you to reflect on the larger social consequences of an empirically-driven world.
Still, I was curious where it got so much of my information about movies. I’m a big movie fan, but I haven’t written much online about movies. Then I remembered my dormant MySpace page, which I hadn’t logged into in more than two years. That profile had some information on my favorite movies.
With Google bots and spiders and all manner of information trawling, nothing is ever truly gone from the Web. But I decided to close my MySpace account anyway.
–Paul
Should OKC withhold name of disciplined employee?
My colleague Bryan Dean has been following the fallout of a reorganization of Oklahoma City departments, which has apparently unearthed some questions about a federal grant program.
The city recently moved its Weed and Seed Program, a federally funded urban crime and quality of life initiative, from the now defunct neighborhood services department to the police department. (Read Bryan’s stories here and here.)
The City of Oklahoma City has put two employees on leave after an investigation into Weed and Seed grant funds. Officials claim they accidentally gave the newspaper the name of the first employee, and they’re refusing to give the name of the second employee disciplined.
Meantime, the city also refused to release the date of birth of the first employee, Ed Martin. The newspaper is seeking his date of birth so it can find out more about Martin’s background. But with nothing more than a name, verifying public records we already have makes it virtually impossible to find out which of the seven Ed Martins in Oklahoma City is a city employee.
In a rather bizarre twist of logic, the city attorney said releasing Martin’s date of birth would be an invasion of privacy because it’s listed on his drivers’ license.
Before we go any further, let me ask you the last time you were asked to show your drivers license to a stranger? I do it an average of 3 or 4 times a week at a variety of retail establishments. I hardly consider my date of birth to be super-secret, private information.
Legally, city attorneys do have a point with certain drivers license information being closed to the public. But as Oklahoma State University journalism associate professor Joey Senat points out, that federal law governs the state Department of Public Safety, which issues drivers licenses. It does not govern the disclosure of city personnel actions:
The federal statute doesn’t explicitly list date of birth among the personal information on a driver’s license that should not be disclosed.
‘Personal information’ means information that identifies an individual, including an individual’s photograph, social security number, driver identification number, name, address (but not the 5-digit zip code), telephone number, and medical or disability information.
The fight over public employee records and dates of birth also has been brewing in Texas, where the Legislature has been trying to close access. My friend and former coworker, Ryan McNeill, has more at the Dallas Morning News Investigates blog.
Further afield in Washington state, former Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels asked that state’s attorney general to make a ruling on closing access to city employee records and dates of birth. After researching the issue, Attorney General Rob McKenna said there was no basis for such a decision:
I have looked carefully into this matter and have concluded that public employees’ dates of birth should not be statutorily or categorically exempt from disclosure, for three main reasons. First, dates of birth are already widely available on the Internet and elsewhere, including state voter registration records that are publicly available. Thus, for practical purposes, there is simply no privacy interest left to protect. Second, dates of birth are an important tool to help keep government accountable. Finally, a more targeted and effective way to fight identity theft would be to allow consumers to freeze access to their credit histories to prevent identity thieves from opening credit accounts in their names.
One of the most cited reason for closing public records, identity theft, is largely a red herring. When asked, our local police couldn’t name an instance of identity theft from public records. Most identity theft comes from old-fashioned thefts, lost wallets or a wayward relative with easy access to credit cards or mail, according to the latest research report by Javelin:
Despite the hefty blame – largely perpetuated by the media – placed on the Internet and cyber-crime, online identity theft methods (phishing, hacking and malware) only accounted for 11% of fraud cases in 2008. The truth is, most known cases of fraud occur through traditional methods, when a criminal has direct, physical access to the victim’s information. These instances include stolen and lost wallets, checkbooks, or credit cards, or even through the simple act of a criminal surreptitiously eavesdropping into your conversation as you make a purchase.
For more on the issue of public records, privacy and ID theft, check out my previous blog posts here and here.
–Paul
State aid and stimulus money to schools
The state Department of Education has released its initial projections of how much money each school district can expect from state coffers in the upcoming school year. You can read my colleague Dawn Marks’ story here.
We’ve compiled the projections into a searchable database on our Right to Know page. You can search for your school district by either county or district name, or both. You can also download the spreadsheet and do your own analysis.
Included in the state aid this year is about $167 million in federal stimulus money that lawmakers added to the state Education Department budget to avoid cuts. Districts can expect more stimulus money from the state later in the year.
Those figures don’t include other stimulus money each district is eligible for in special education funding and what they call Title I help for math and reading programs in districts with higher proportions of low-income students. (For more on that chunk of stimulus money, read Dawn’s earlier story here.)
Looking at the figures, aid to most schools is down this fiscal year as compared to the final amounts they received in FY 2009. And financial officials in the districts expect this year’s amounts to decline as the state revenue picture becomes clearer:
Because revenue collections for the state have been lower than expected, allocations could change, said James White, assistant state superintendent for finance. “It may get worse. We may have to reduce those later,” White said. “Right now we’re telling school districts not to do anything drastic but to plan for cuts.”
Without stimulus money, the picture could have been bleaker, state officials said. It’s also important to remember that the state aid allocation is just one part of the funding for public schools. Other money comes from local property taxes and regular, non-stimulus, federal funding.
Here’s a quick look at the top 20 districts and their FY 2010 projected state aid amounts compared to last year:
Source: Oklahoma State Department of Education
–Paul
Are we obsessed with Web tracking?
How much is too much when it comes to tracking our lives on the Web? Has the deluge of information online made us think differently about we see our world?
USA Today has a fascinating story today on those questions, and more.
I’ll be the first to raise my hand and say that I can get a wee bit obsessive about tracking government information on the Web. After all, that’s part of my job description. But I hadn’t realized how much this story hit home until I thought about the time I’ve spent tracking purchases from Amazon or Apple. For example, when I bought my Apple laptop in 2005, I could track its movement from the factory in China to my doorstep in Oklahoma City. And I did. Obsessively.
Of course, I don’t think I’m quite to point where I track every instance of my life on the Web. That’s the subject of this story from Wired magazine. You can also check out The Quantified Self site here. And if you’re on Twitter, you can track your life using it with this project from data visualization site Flowing Data.
The prize for the most visually interesting personal metrics project has to go to graphic designer Nicholas Felton, who has been producing “annual reports” of his life since 2005. Here’s the latest cover from 2008:
Felton’s side project is called Daytum. The Wall Street Journal interviewed him for this story back in December. The Journal also helpfully put the phenomenon in historical context:
Today’s info-chroniclers are just the latest in a long history of diarists and scientists who kept notes by hand. Nineteenth-century English inventor and statistician Francis Galton, who introduced statistical concepts such as regression to the mean, was an obsessive counter who created the first weather map and carried a homemade object called a “registrator” to, among other things, measure people’s yawns and fidgets during his talks. (Mr. Galton’s preoccupation with data, specifically with human hereditary traits, also yielded an unsavory by-product — eugenics.)
In 1937, a social research organization called Mass Observation in London used about 2,000 volunteers to develop an “anthropology of ourselves.” For more than a decade, participants recorded such things as their neighbor’s bathroom habits and what end of their cigarettes they tapped before lighting up. Personal tracking also showed up in “Cheaper by the Dozen,” a 1948 book about efficiency experts Frank Bunker Gilbreth and Lillian Moller Gilbreth and their attempts to track and optimize the daily routines of their 12 children (including when they brushed their teeth and made their beds).
Finally, the award for too much information has to go to the squirm-inducing Bedpost!
–Paul
Oklahoma lobbyist gift database updated
Want to see which companies and lobbyists have given to state lawmakers and other officials?
Then check out the updated version of our Lobbyist Gift database on our Right to Know page.
Twice a year, the state Ethics Commission puts an Excel file on its Web site detailing gifts to lawmakers and public officials. We take the files, combine them into one database, and make them searchable online.
This summer’s update covers the first Legislative session since a new rule went into effect limiting lobbyist gifts to $100 per lawmaker. That means each lobbyist can give up to the $100 maximum for each lawmaker or official. The previous limit was $300 in a calendar year.
Just checking the database, the overwhelming share of gifts are either football and basketball tickets or meals. Of course, the popular stereotype is one of lawmakers getting wined and dined at fancy area restaurants. But my guess is that it’s always been more about time and access than big spending at ritzy restaurants. So the new gift limits, while laudable, may not be curtailing special interest influence as they were intended.
Here’s a few totals from the first half of 2009:
Source: Oklahoma Ethics Commission
(Full disclosure: My wife, Jennifer, is a former reporter who is now press secretary for the Speaker of the House. She shows up in the lobbyist gift database a few times under her maiden name, Mock, and her married name.)
Oklahoma voter turnout by gender & race
The U.S. Census Bureau has released its breakdown on who voted in 2008. Despite all the hype about massive voter turnout, the numbers overall don’t distinguish 2008 from prior presidential election years.
But the census estimates do point to upticks among the young, blacks and Hispanics.
“The 2008 presidential election saw a significant increase in voter turnout among young people, blacks and Hispanics,” said Thom File, a voting analyst with the Census Bureau’s Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division. “But as turnout among some other demographic groups either decreased or remained unchanged, the overall 2008 voter turnout rate was not statistically different from 2004.”
I took a closer look at the Oklahoma numbers and came up with the following chart for the last three presidential election years. As you can see, compared to 2004, every category except black and Hispanic was down in Oklahoma.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note: The census didn’t break out several other race categories, such as Native American and Asian & Pacific Islanders, at the state level. Also, Hispanics can be of any race, according to the census.
Nationally, the states with the highest percentage of voters were Minnesota and the District of Columbia, each with voting rates of about 75 percent. Hawaii and Utah were among the states with the lowest turnouts, each with approximately 52 percent, according to the census.
To see precinct-level presidential results in Oklahoma, go to this database on our Right to Know page. The related story is here.
–Paul
The perils of dirty data and “overpriced” ham
So, we paid a government contractor $1.1 million for 2 pounds of sliced ham? That seemed to be the story as the Drudge Report started linking items from the federal government’s Recovery.gov site this morning.
Not so fast, said the Agriculture Department, as it swatted down Drudge’s reports with a rare rebuttal.
Now, all this back-and-forth might seem a bit excessive for a few pounds of sliced ham, but it illustrates one of the perils of transparency without context. Our government spends billions each year to collect, maintain and analyze all kinds of data. But it’s collected by humans, who make mistakes.
Take the ham fiasco. Everything appears above board in the original description on Recovery.gov. But because of the “Description of Work/Service Performed” field, it looks like we paid a bunch of money for some pork. That’s not necessarily an error, but it’s definitely not clear to most readers. (I probably would have drawn the same conclusion, although I would check it out first before writing a story.)
The people who deal with government data on a regular basis know all too well the problems associated with collecting and disseminating data. In the field of computer-assisted reporting, we call it “dirty data,” and we’re on guard for it all the time. (A chunk of my time as Database Editor is spent cleaning up data we get from various local, state and federal sources.)
Here’s how the folks at the Institute for Analytic Journalism put it in 2006:
An uncountable number of public agency databases have been created in the past 30 years. More and more, public and private decision-makers draw on this collected, digital data to make decisions about everything from disciplining doctors to zoning decisions to law enforcement to deciding who gets to vote. The often-unquestioned assumption is that the data, as found, analyzed and presented by a government or quasi-government agency, is valid. Increasingly, anecdotal evidence indicates that data is riddled with serious errors. Often, if initial investigations indicate the data is too suspect — and the cost to clean the data by hand or automatically too high — then good and important analysis and investigations are put aside.
The Government Accountability Office recently put out its own report on the subject of government data. The report is mainly a guide for government auditors, but they recognized the problems of all these disparate sources of data, and the public’s appetite to put it all online.
While this guide focuses only on the reliability of data in terms of completeness and accuracy, other data quality considerations are just as important. In particular, consider validity. Validity (as used here) refers to whether the data actually represent what you think is being measured. For example, if we are interested in analyzing job performance and a field in the database is labeled “annual evaluation score,” we need to know whether that field seems like a reasonable way to gain information on a person’s job performance or whether it represents another kind of evaluation score.
In journalism, we try to follow the age-old advice of, “If your Mother says she loves you, check it out.” Maybe Drudge should do the same thing?
–Paul
