Dueling health insurance stats
Figuring out who has health insurance coverage and who doesn’t is an ongoing challenge for policymakers.
Do you count people who went without coverage for a week or a month as being uninsured? What about the ranks of the long-term uninsured? How many of them might qualify for government programs or subsidies but just haven’t signed up?
It’s not an easy task, which is why today’s story on the numbers of uninsured might shed some light on the issue. The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, a wide-ranging sample of 3 million households each year, asked a health insurance coverage question for the first time last year. For a look at how the question was asked, check out page 8 of the survey form.
Our analysis of the Census’ ACS estimates showed that about 22 percent of Oklahomans under 65 went without health insurance coverage when they were surveyed last year. That put Oklahoma at No. 5 in the nation for the percentage of residents younger than 65 without health insurance.
Of course, it didn’t help matters that the Census just two weeks ago put out another survey that had information on the uninsured from its long-running Current Population Survey. That survey showed an estimated 15.9 percent of Oklahomans of all ages were without health insurance in the CPS’ 2-year average from 2007 to 2008. (For more discussion of that survey data, see the Oklahoma Policy Institute posting here, and the thoughts from our editorial page here. The journal Health Affairs also has a more detailed discussion of the CPS health insurance estimates here.)
David Blatt, policy director for the Oklahoma Policy Institute, said that no matter which Census survey policymakers use, “I think the true numbers lie somewhere between those estimates. Whatever the number, we have a heck of a lot of Oklahomans without health insurance coverage.”
Researchers are hopeful that the bigger survey sample of the American Community Survey will provide more accurate figures in the future. Here’s how the University of Minnesota’s State Health Access Data Assistance Center, or SHADAC, puts it:
The ACS is a great development for health services researchers, but as with all surveys, it will have its problems. In summary, the greatest advantage is that the ACS will be a regular source of health insurance coverage for local areas. The timely releases will fill a significant information void. The biggest limitation is format of the health insurance item is and the ability of respondents to recognize what type of health insurance coverage they have. Some error is always expected in survey research, and we have yet to see how it will compare to other surveys.
In the meantime, here’s a look at some of the latest uninsured estimates from the Census’ American Community Survey for the Oklahoma counties and Congressional districts covered under the latest 2008 survey data:
Finally, NPR has a nice set of interactive maps using the same data:
–Paul
Oklahoma voter turnout by gender & race
The U.S. Census Bureau has released its breakdown on who voted in 2008. Despite all the hype about massive voter turnout, the numbers overall don’t distinguish 2008 from prior presidential election years.
But the census estimates do point to upticks among the young, blacks and Hispanics.
“The 2008 presidential election saw a significant increase in voter turnout among young people, blacks and Hispanics,” said Thom File, a voting analyst with the Census Bureau’s Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division. “But as turnout among some other demographic groups either decreased or remained unchanged, the overall 2008 voter turnout rate was not statistically different from 2004.”
I took a closer look at the Oklahoma numbers and came up with the following chart for the last three presidential election years. As you can see, compared to 2004, every category except black and Hispanic was down in Oklahoma.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note: The census didn’t break out several other race categories, such as Native American and Asian & Pacific Islanders, at the state level. Also, Hispanics can be of any race, according to the census.
Nationally, the states with the highest percentage of voters were Minnesota and the District of Columbia, each with voting rates of about 75 percent. Hawaii and Utah were among the states with the lowest turnouts, each with approximately 52 percent, according to the census.
To see precinct-level presidential results in Oklahoma, go to this database on our Right to Know page. The related story is here.
–Paul
Visualizing the latest city population estimates
The latest estimates for city populations came out today from the Census Bureau, and they show rapid growth in the outlying suburbs of the state’s two largest cities. (Read the national press release here.)
We included a number of charts with today’s paper version of the story. I also posted an online database on our Right to Know page so you can search the latest population estimates of almost 600 cities in Oklahoma.
Of course, the latest estimates showed continued growth in suburban cities. But growth was also fairly good in Oklahoma City, which gained about 45,000 people since 2000. That’s a growth rate of 9 percent. By contrast, Tulsa lost about 7,000 people, a drop of 2 percent, in the same time period.
There’s wasn’t much room in the story to go into detail on this point, but here’s a look at Oklahoma City and Tulsa population over the years 1920 to 2008. Both cities almost doubled in size in the years of the Oil Boom in the 1920s. The Dust Bowl and Great Depression then took their toll in the 1930s. By the 1970s, the cities were fairly close in size. The population gap has only widened since then.
Oklahoma City and Tulsa population, 1920 to 2008
Source: U.S. Census historical records
As for the other cities in the state, here’s a look at how they stack up in a bubble chart. The bigger the circle, the bigger the city. This helps you see the relative size of each city to others in the state. You can also select your city from the alphabetical list to the left of the bubbles.
Another type of visualization is a tree map. Here’s what the latest population estimates look like using a tree map. In this one, the boxes are relative to the size of each city, and the color shade shows the intensity of each city’s growth rate or decline.
–Paul
Global population will keep getting older, Census says
The number of people aged 65 and older in the U.S. will reach more than 89 million by 2050, more than double the 39 million today , the U.S. Census Bureau said in its latest population projections.
Now, less than 8 percent of the world’s population is 65 and older. That will increase to 12 percent in 2030 and 16 percent by 2050, according to census projections.
“This shift in the age structure of the world’s population poses challenges to society, families, businesses, health care providers and policymakers to meet the needs of aging individuals,” said Wan He, demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population Division.
China and India will continue to be the world’s most populous countries by 2050, but India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2031, according to updated rankings.
Here’s a closer look at the U.S. projections:
| Demographic Indicators | 2050 | 1995 | 2005 | 2015 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | |||||
| Midyear population (in thousands) | 439,010 | 266,557 | 295,561 | 325,540 | 357,452 |
| Growth rate (percent) | 0.8 | N/A | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Fertility | |||||
| Total fertility rate (births per woman) | 2.0 | N/A | N/A | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population) | 13 | N/A | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| Births (in thousands) | 5,672 | N/A | 4,138 | 4,470 | 4,726 |
| Mortality | |||||
| Life expectancy at birth (years) | 83 | N/A | N/A | 79 | 80 |
| Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) | 4 | N/A | N/A | 6 | 5 |
| Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000 births) | 4 | N/A | N/A | 7 | 5 |
| Crude death rate (per 1,000 population) | 10 | N/A | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Deaths (in thousands) | 4,263 | N/A | 2,447 | 2,728 | 3,088 |
| Migration | |||||
| Net migration rate (per 1,000 population) | 5 | N/A | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Net number of migrants (in thousands) | 2,055 | N/A | 978 | 1,387 | 1,576 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
–Paul
Census figures show suburban growth in Oklahoma
Outlying suburban counties in Oklahoma’s metro areas have grown faster than the urban core areas since 2000, according to the latest analysis from the Census Bureau released today.
In the Oklahoma City metro area, the outlying McClain and Cleveland counties showed the most growth. Both grew by more than 13 percent since 2000. The picture was similar in the Tulsa metro area, where Rogers County grew by more than 17 percent.
(The Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas each contain seven Oklahoma counties. The Lawton metro area consists solely of Comanche County. Two other Oklahoma counties–Le Flore and Sequoyah–are part of the Fort Smith, Ark., metro area.)
See the spreadsheet below for the latest Oklahoma estimates.
Nationally, the census said outlying counties of metro areas saw their population increase 13 percent, compared with an 8 percent increase for the central counties of metro areas.
Among the other highlights from the report:
- Outlying counties as a whole grew more through net migration than through natural increase (defined as births minus deaths). Nationwide, the average annual rate of net migration for outlying counties was 12.5 per 1,000 population compared to a 4.8 per 1,000 average annual rate of natural increase. Central counties followed the opposite pattern, with a larger proportion of their growth attributable to natural increase (6.6 per 1,000) than to net migration (3.6 per 1,000).
- Outlying counties grew faster than central counties in each of the three most populous metro area size categories — including those metro areas with April 1, 2000, total populations of 5 million or more, those between 2.5 million and 5 million, and those between 1 million and 2.5 million in population — as well as in metro areas with populations between 250,000 and 500,000.
- Among the nation’s nine census divisions, the Mountain Division (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) experienced the highest percentage growth in its metro area population at 20 percent.
–Paul
2010 Census projections: Oklahoma Congressional seats to remain the same
New U.S. Census Bureau projections for state population came out recently, and it looks like Oklahoma gained 34,000 people from July 2007 to July 2008. The state’s estimated population is now 3,642,361.
Oklahoma ranked 19th in percentage growth and 21st in numerical growth.
The folks at the state Data Center said we shouldn’t worry about losing Congressional representation after the next decennial Census. (Oklahoma went from six Congressional districts to five after the 2000 Census because its rate of population didn’t keep up with other states.)
From the Data Center’s latest newsletter:
While the state has not grown enough to recapture that lost 6th Congressional District, we do not appear to be at risk of losing a district either. It’s not easy to plot out every possible scenario, but roughly speaking, if the population in the rest of the nation were held constant, then Oklahoma’s population would have to decline by more than half a million before the state would be at risk of losing another seat. Conversely, if the state wanted to regain its 6th District, the state’s population would need to increase somewhere close to 175,000 while the rest of the U.S. population remained unchanged.
To see more of the Data Center’s population estimates, go here.
–Paul
Census releases American Community Survey
The U.S. Census Bureau officially released its 2007 American Community Survey today, and it contains a wealth of information about states and cities with more than 65,000 people.
The Census Bureau will release similar information in December for places with populations of more than 20,000. In the meantime, here’s some Oklahoma highlights:
— Oklahoma’s immigrant population (both legal and illegal, since the Census doesn’t make the distinction) grew by 3.5 percent from 2006 to 2007, according to the survey. The agency estimated there were 182,186 immigrants in Oklahoma last year, up from 175,987 in 2006. The state’s population is more than 3.6 million.
— Almost 65 percent of
— Just 5 percent of
— Almost half of
— More than 8 percent of
—
— The median value of owner-occupied homes in
— More than 16 percent of Oklahomans moved to another house inside the state in 2007. That put
— On average,
— In
For more on the latest American Community Survey, click here. You can also read commentary from Census expert William Frey of the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
–Paul
Census countdown: Only 615 days to go…
Most of us probably don’t think too much about the Census on a regular basis.
Sure, you know it comes every 10 years and is used to accurately count the population and re-allocate federal and state voting districts. Maybe you know its numbers are used for a whole host of government programs, from road and transportation funding to free and reduced school lunch programs to health care for the poor.
But did you know the folks at the U.S. Census and their state and local partners are already hard at work making sure everything is ready for April 1, 2010?
The Oklahoma State Data Center, part of the state Commerce Department, held a conference yesterday in Moore to update Census users and organizers on Census 2010 and other data released by the Census Bureau. Here’s a few of the highlights:
- In 2007, Oklahoma received about $5 billion in federal funds that are tied to Census figures. That’s $1,392 per person. Put another way, it’s enough to a buy a fancy Starbucks coffee or a gallon of gas for each Oklahoma resident every day of the year (roughly $3.81 per person/day).
- The 2010 Census forms will be offered in more than 50 languages.
- The Census Bureau is spending more than $200 million to get the word out to “hard-to-count” groups such as low-income residents, recent immigrants and young people.
- After a $595 million technology contract went wrong, the Census is back to using paper and pencil. More on that here and here.
- Between now and April 1, 2010, Census has to verify 130 million addresses, prepare for 40 million non-respondents and fill 750,000 temporary positions for everything from supervisors, field workers and enumerators.
- Oklahoma had a response rate of 64 percent in Census 2000, compared to 67 percent for the nation.
- Privacy concerns and distrust of government contribute to lower response rates. (For every 1 percentage point of the non-response rate, it costs the Census Bureau about $75 million to follow-up in some way.)
- Although Canada, Australia and other countries have experimented with doing at least part of their Census over the Internet, it’s unlikely to happen here in the U.S. for 2010. (Much to the chagrin of our own U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn.)
–Paul
