A look at possibilities

(From Bryan Painter, at NWS-Norman Forecast Office) Just before 1 p.m. this Regional Weather Discusssion was released. Here’s what they’re looking at this afternoon and into this evening.

AROUND 1245 PM…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM AS HEATING CONTINUES AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
QUICKLY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THE COLD FRONT
FROM MEDFORD TO ENID TO FAIRVIEW BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM.

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