The Big Ten could go to 20: ND, Mizzou, FSU, GT, UNC, & UVA (w/UConn, BC, Duke, & Miami as alternative options) and have 4 geographical divisions. The SEC could counter that with VT, NCSU, Pitt, Cincy, Duke/SMU, Clemson, & Miami. If it got to that point, I’d be willing to give WVU to the SEC & ISU to someone and merge into the Big Pac-20. It is still unlikely, though.

But, right now, I’d put my money on UNC & GT going to the Big Ten, which would leave UVA for us if we want them. Clemson & Miami may say they are committed to the ACC, but if they get the Big 12 offer, they will leave it behind. If UNC gets left out of the Big Ten like you suggest, then it probably joins the SEC, leaving NCSU for the Big 12.

ND is a special case. If it gets to the point that there will be 3 major 16-team conferences, ND will have a big decision to make. It could stay Independent, parking the rest of its sports in with the Catholic 7, and likely never make it into the playoff (along with the mid-majors) or it could join a conference and have most of its needs met. The Big Ten offers more rivalries, 4th-best opportunity at national scheduling & recruiting ; the SEC & Big 12 (under my 16-team alignments) offer an easier path to national scheduling, a list of potential rivals, and so-so academics; and the Pac-12 offers great academics, some rivals, & 3rd-best recruiting. The money will be real close in whichever conference it chooses. If I had to give an order of favorites, my best estimate would be: 1. Pac-12, 2. Big 12, 3. SEC, 4. Big Ten.

If the Big Ten & SEC only go to 16, we’ll still be left a good lineup for 16, even in the worst case. If the Big Ten goes to 18 & SEC to 16, we’ll probably have a good lineup available for 16. If they both go to 18, we could expand to 14 or stay at 10. If they both go to 20, then the Big 12 is done.

If UNC is left out, it likely joins the SEC, leaving NCSU for us. If UVA is left out, then it is available for us, if we want it. If GT is left out, we will get it.

As for VT, we could get it from 1 of 2 ways: UNC joins the SEC with Duke OR we ask early and FSU, Miami, & Clemson are coming. I’d rather have Louisville & ND than VT though, but if GT & ND decline, VT and NCSU need to be targeted. If we miss on both (SEC), then take Cincy and either Pitt or UVA for the worst-case scenario, which still isn’t bad at all (except for WVU or ISU shifting to the SE pod)

The Big Ten could always throw all this out the window by going to 18 or 20, but I think it’ll only go to 16 for now.

@John- read my post for reasons not to stop at 14. At 14, it still takes 6 years to complete the cycle (playing every team home & away), but with uneven scheduling. Not a good look.

@Jamez- BYU isn’t happening unless it’s for football-only, and that’d be a bad deal. GT, VT, NCSU, and maybe even UVA are better options than Pitt.

@Mike- Wow. That NE is the division I wanna play in!!!! But four 16-team conferences is almost its own division…

@Jerry- OU to the ACC wouldn’t be smart; it’d take a big pay cut. Also, the Big 12 offers more money & potential to those ACC schools. If the SEC & B1G are raiding it, why can’t we?

@Big D- Yep, round robin is outdated and the fans are getting screwed. But we can’t stop at 12.

@Sugar- very good points.

@Chris- You are so misinformed and buy into so much bs that I don’t know where to start…

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@Barry- Please read my other post!

Initial targets should be ND, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, and Louisville. Secondary targets are limited to (in order): VT, NCSU, Cincy, UVA, & Pitt. These schools all have a Big 12 mold: being good in more than 1 sport, and, in particularly, Football, Basketball, Baseball, W Basketball, & Softball ( the tv sports). They also offer new recruiting grounds.

NW: OU, OSU, KU, KSU
SW: Texas, TTU, BU, TCU
NE: ISU, ND, UL, WVU
SE: FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson

So for Texas, each year it would face TTU, BU, TCU, OU, WVU, & Miami. Year 1 would provide 3 NW schools, Year 2 would give 3 NE schools, and Year 3 would give 3 SE schools.
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As far as the money goes.. The Big 12 schools make $20M/yr, on average, for 1st & 2nd tier tv rights. With a conference championship game (CCG), that number increases to $21M/yr. There has been chatter than any school that gets added must be worth at least that much, with ND and FSU being the “only” ones worth that much. I digress. Miami, VT, GT, UL, Clemson, and NCSU are either there or really close; Cincy, Pitt, & UVA could push that number as a member of the Big 12, but not without it. If Texas and OU can balance ISU to $20M, and Bama & UF balancing Kentucky to $25(!!!)M, then FSU & Miami can balance out some of the smaller programs.

Currently, the ACC makes $17M/school for all 3 tiers of tv rights. The Big East will make $5M/school, at best, for 1st & 2nd tier. The SEC will likely earn $25M/school for 1st & 2nd tier after renegotiating their contracts.

The new BCS system will split the playoff revenues ($345M) 75-25 between the “Power 5″ ($51.75M/conference) and “Little 5″ ($17.25/conference). With only 10 teams, the Big 12 will have a higher per-school average ($5.175M) than any other conference. The Rose & Sugar Bowls pay the Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, & Big Ten $40M each; at 10 schools, the Big 12 brings in $4M/school, more than the others. The Big 12 counters the $4-5M more that the SEC schools will have off its tv contracts by nearly catching it with the $9.175M/school (in comparison to the SEC’s $6.557M/school) off of the BCS & Sugar. Other bowls aren’t known at this time, and host bowls & playoff spots aren’t guaranteed, so they aren’t figured in.
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So each Big 12 school will make $29.175M/school ($30.175 w/a CCG) from 1st & 2nd tiers, BCS, and the Sugar, how could it possibly make more by expanding?!?

If the Big 12 expands to 16, the SEC and Big Ten will too (the Pac-12 could make a run for ND, BYU, and possibly 2from the MW, but it is irrelevant here), forming the “Power 4″. That means the ACC will lose 10 of its 15 schools. Based on my example, only Pitt, WF, BC, Syracuse, and Duke would be left. The ACC would merge with the BE, bringing in UConn, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, and Temple for sure. Best-case scenario is that UH, SMU, Tulane, Army, & Navy to get to 16 (UTSA & UNT could replace the TX schools, while Tulsa, NIU, ECU, USM, UAB, & UMass are others that could substitute). That conference gets kicked out of the top tier and replaces the BE in the “Little 5,” while the Orange Bowl could be up for grabs. I highly doubt the new ACC could draw $10M/school for all 3 tiers, but it might top out at $7.5M, saving ESPN nearly $100M/year. The BCS pay would increase to $64.6875/”Power 4″ conference.

I guarantee ESPN and FOX would expand the contract to pay the new members of the Big 12 $21M/school (with the CCG) whether they are worth it at this second or not; things change. If we use the conference playoff format, each semifinal would be worth $.5M/school ($8M total), by my estimate. That bumps the 16 Big 12 schools up to $22M each from tv. It is possible ESPN & FOX could even increase the pay by $3-4M/school, putting the league on par with the SEC. The BCS pay would decrease to $4.043M/school & the Sugar pay to $2.5M/school, for a total/school decrease of $2.632M. By securing a contract with the Orange Bowl (against the Big Ten?), I’d expect $32M being paid to each conference (up from $27.5M to the ACC and SEC/Big Ten currently), which makes up $2M/school of the deficit. We’ll likely only have 7 bowl ties at 10 schools; at 16, we’ll need at least 10 bowls. The rest could be made up by securing as much money as possibly from these new bowls, in addition to fielding great teams in all sports, sending as many teams as possible to postseason tournaments in each NCAA sport, and keeping good academic status.

So the conference would be guaranteed $30.543M total/school for the 1st & 2nd tier tv rights, BCS, Sugar, and Orange revenues, on par with the other 3 conferences. The major difference is that Big 12 schools manage their own 3rd tier tv rights, while the Pac-12, Big Ten, & SEC Networks will each bring in $10M/school at their full potential (for the Big Ten & Pac-12, that will come sooner than the SEC, which has to buy back 3rd tier tv rights for the schools who’ve sold them, reducing the profits).
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If the Big 12 went to 16, it would be necessary to start up a tv network, in my opinion. The logical thing would be to turn LHN into the Big 12 Network. The perfect model would be similar to the Pac-12 Network: 1 national channel, 4 regional channels (1 for each pod), and capitalizing on the Internet, along with being fully owned by the conference. However, continuing LHN’s partnership with ESPN and IBM College (replacing Texas’ ownership with the Big 12) might be the safest idea. There’s a good chance these Networks could bring in close to $10M/school at the full potential, but like the SEC, the Big 12 would need to buy back the current 3rd tier tv rights, leaving only $1-2M/school worth of revenue for the first couple of years. That latter fact might be the big reason Texas holds this up, as moving from $11M profit to only $1-2M is not good, although I’m sureTexas would receive some money from the buyout. Fully owning the Networks and marketing them with the Pac-12 Networks might not be a bad idea though.
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I hope this spells out to you guys why 10 or 16 are our only options, not anything in between, like 12 or 14.