Lunch leftovers: More online chat
When we ended my online chat Thursday, we still had a bunch of questions in the queue. So our man Dane Beavers saved them, sent them to me and I’m ready now to answer:
Jarrett: MLB early season predictions. I will go with the longshot and say the Oakland A’s.
I love the Athletics. I don’t think they will win, but I love the Athletics. Let’s go Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Anaheim. In the NL, Cincy, St. Louis, Philly and San Francisco. World Series: Twins over Reds. Call me a hopeless romantic.
Rich: “In regards to the last shot problems with the Thunder, I think everybody misses one point when criticizing KD, Brooks etc. When tied, the first objective is you get the last shot. If you run a play, when you are open, you have to shoot. If you make or miss, there may be enough time for the other team to get the last shot.”
You’re exactly right, Rich. You can’t just run offense and take the first good shot. When you make the parameters a good shot AND at a certain time, you limit your options. If you absolutely have to have the final shot, you have to live with the possibility that it won’t be a good one.
Guest: “Is there any fear of KD not having the ‘clutch’ mentality down the road? At the end of games, it seems all his shots are fadeaways and has never been aggressive. Russell seems to have this, but not KD.”
See the above answer. But also consider this. Clutch has all kinds of connotations. You want a clutch shot? Here’s one. Overtime against Golden State. Thunder down 114-112. Inside the last minute. Durant has the ball. It’s a clear-out situation. It’s all in KD’s hands. And with 48 seconds left, he knocks down a stone-cold jumper. Miss that shot, and Golden State takes command of the game. But he made it, and the Thunder had a fighting chance. But in general, you’re right. I like Westbrook driving at the end of a game. Heck, I like going to Harden. Or Ibaka. I would just run offense and see what happens.
Damian: “I’m opposed to big government, but I think the NCAA needs to be bigger and needs more compliance/investigators so that they can govern college football. There should be a compliance coordinator assigned to each school. The NCAA could afford paying all these guys with the amount of money they would be making from the college football playoffs and NCAA tournament. It’s all about integrity.”
I don’t know if you need an investigator at every school. But I would definitely beef up the detective branch. I would hire a bunch of retired FBI agents. The NCAA has too many young guys just out of law school. I would hire G-men.
Josh: “I would love for the NBA playoffs to start today. Let’s say we beat the Nuggets, which we should. We’d be looking at San Antonio in the second round, which I feel is very favorable, seems how San Antonio’s age is catching up to them. How electric would a Thunder/Lakers conference finals be?”
Lakers-Thunder Western Conference Finals would be the biggest thing since the Land Run. Are you kidding me? Late May, still playing basketball, the world watching?
Damian: “As of right now, who does OU play in the BCS Title game? Which college football team is your biggest sleeper?
Oh heck, I’m awful at this sleeper stuff. I don’t know if OU will make the title game. The Sooners have some stiff hurdles. I mean, look at Auburn. The Tigers bought a quarterback and still needed a comeback for the ages in the Iron Bowl, just to make the title game. But you want a sleeper? How about someone from the ACC? That league hasn’t done squat in forever. Maybe a Virginia Tech or somebody. V-Tech turned out to be pretty decent after losing to Boise State.
Josh: “What was up with the Suns last night? They seemed a little feisty all game.”
I think the pressure of not making the playoffs finally got to Phoenix. Did you hear that stat? The Suns have missed the NBA playoffs just six times since 1977. So there’s a lot of frustration building up.
Dennis: “I agree with you Tram on baseball. If they played 100 games instead of 170 or whatever it is now, I think more people would watch and be interested, but that many games people get burned on it. Bring on football!”
100 games is too few. But why couldn’t baseball go back to 154? That would be historically correct. That’s what baseball played before 1961.
Power Lunch Chat Recap: Berry Tramel
NCAA Tournament: Would VCU have made field of 65?
The NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams this year, which meant three extra at-large teams were in the field. Virgina Commonwealth, one of the last four at-large teams in, has made the Final Four. Does that mean VCU wouldn’t have even made the tournament if we were still at 65?
Probably. Think about that. A team that has taken out Southern Cal, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas — with only Florida State going down to the wire — wouldn’t even have made the field in yesteryear. Deservedly so. The Rams finished fourth in the Colonial Athletic Association, behind George Mason (understandable), Old Dominion (OK) and Hofstra (what the…). Virginia Commonwealth lost at Northeastern, which finished 11-20, and lost at Georgia State, which finished 12-19, and lost at home to James Madison.
Virginia Commonwealth head coach Shaka Smart reacts during a news conference after his team won the Southwest regional final game against Kansas in the NCAA college basketball tournament on Sunday, March 27, 2011, in San Antonio. VCU won 71-61. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
But the 23-11 Rams were invited to the Big Dance, much to the consternation of ESPN analysts, and have soared beyond the greatest Cinderella story. Think of it this way. VCU already has done what Butler did a year ago, only better. VCU has won five NCAA Tournament games, all against equal or higher seeds, and all against power-conference foes. Not even Butler did that in 2010; the Bulldogs beat UTEP, Murray State, Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State, before losing to Duke in the title game.
You could argue that Virginia Commonwealth already is the greatest Cinderella run in NCAA history.
So, would VCU have made the field in years past? Can’t say exactly, but this we know. Four teams were identified as the last at-large teams in — Clemson, Alabama-Birmingham, VCU and Southern Cal. The Clemson-UAB winner was seeded 12th; the VCU-USC winner was seeded 11th. So it’s likely that VCU and USC were considered the more deserving teams. That’s not automatic; sometimes the committee moves teams along the bracket, sliding a seed up or down, for other purposes. Conference affiliations, regional sites, etc.
Also, it’s unclear if the committee seeded the four last teams. Made its favorite team an 11 and its least favorite a 12, trying to get its two favorite teams to advance. I don’t know. But let’s look at the two scenarios:
1. If Clemson and UAB were most on the bubble, then that leaves VCU and USC challenging for the 65th slot. If you believe the pundits, VCU and UAB were the least-worthy teams in the field. So that scenario makes VCU somewhat less than 50 percent of making a 65-team field.
2. If the teams were slotted 1-4, that means VCU was either the first or the fourth of the teams. And again, it’s not likely that the Rams were first. Those losses to Georgia State and Northeastern stick out.
So let’s be honest. It’s likely that Virginia Commonwealth was not the first of the four in. It’s likely that VCU is in the NCAA Tournament because it expanded. It’s likely that if the field was still at 65, there would be no VCU upset of Kansas, or takedown of Florida State, Butler, Georgetown and USC.
Isn’t that amazing? A team in the field only because of a bloated, expanded format has fashioned the best Cinderella story ever told in March Madness, with a chance to win it all.
Meet for lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings on NW Expressway
It’s Thursday, so it’s time to meet for lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings on Northwest Expressway. I’ll be there to chat online from 11 a.m. to 11:30 or so, then I’ll stick around and eat lunch and talk sports with whoever wants to stop by.
Lots to talk about. Thunder. OU basketball search. Spring football practice. Final Four. Lots of meat on that bone.
Anyway, stop by and join me for lunch. We always have a good time at Buffalo Wild Wings on Northwest Expressway.
OU basketball: No more Buzz
The buzz about Buzz Williams can stop. The Marquette coach has reached agreement on a contract extension and raise. He won’t be coming to Oklahoma.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Joe Castiglione took a run at Williams, and I don’t think there’s any doubt that Williams considered the Sooners. But like Matt Painter with Missouri, Buzz is staying put.
Which takes OU back to its next teir of candidates. UNLV’s Lon Kruger? Colorado’s Tad Boyle? Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall? I have no idea what Joe C. will do now. But here’s where I would turn, based on guys who OU could potentially get.
1. Shaka Smart, Virginia Commonwealth: Hard to hire from the same school twice in a row, but Smart’s run to the Final Four means it’s time to make an exception. Look at it this way. Some coaches get hired because of one March Madness upset. Smart has produced five.
2. Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt: He wins a lot without great talent. He was interested in the job before. I would take a run at him.
3. Tad Boyle, Colorado: I like coaches from Kansas. OU might should have grabbed Mark Turgeon five years ago.
4. Steve Alford, New Mexico: I have no idea why I like Alford so much, but I do. He was excellent at Missouri State and now at New Mexico, didn’t do much at Iowa. But no one has done much at Iowa in the last 20 years. Maybe it was the job, not the coach.
5. Lon Kruger, UNLV: Excellent coach who hasn’t always recruited at a high level. If he hired the right staff, it could be a great move.
6. Tubby Smith, Minnesota: Seems like Tubby’s been around forever, but he’s just 59. He has some tread left on the tires.
7. Rob Jeter, Wisconsin-Milwaukee: Rebuffed by Buzz, maybe Joe C. could look across town and go after another Milwaukee coach. Jeter has been solid since replacing Bruce Pearl.
Thunder: Close games a little unsettling
The Thunder’s amazing overtime performance continued Tuesday night — the Boomers beat Golden State 115-114 in OT, raising their record to 8-1 in games that went overtime. Someone wrote me and asked if that’s a little dubious, since most of OKC’s overtime victims have been bad teams. The Thunder has beaten Portland, Indiana, New Jersey, Minnesota, Washington, Phoenix, Philadelphia and Golden State. OKC lost to Memphis.
I don’t think who you beat in overtime is a major indicator of much. You can argue that it’s a wash; you should beat bad teams in overtime and you shouldn’t have gone into OT against bad teams in the first place.
But I think what’s a little unsettling is OKC’s overall record in close games. In overtime: 8-1. In games decided by one, two or three points (including some in OT): 8-4.
Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant (35) defends Golden State's Monta Ellis (8) during the NBA basketball game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors at the Oklahoma City Arena, Tuesday, March 29, 2011. Photo by Bryan Terry, The Oklahoman
There are two ways to look at it. 1. The Thunder makes enough plays in tight games to win, most of the time. Foul shooting has a lot to do with it. 2. One-possession games are mostly tossup. Which could be bad for OKC. Those things to even out.
Think of it this way. The quality of a team is determined over 48 minutes. If we judged teams on one possession, the standings wouldn’t look anything like they look. Play 10 48-minute games, and the Lakers would dominate Cleveland, Boston would dominate Sacramento. But play 10 one-minute games, and there’s no domination. The Lakers and Cavs would be tight; the Celtics and Kings would be tight.
That’s why overtime is a little in between. It’s just five minutes, but that gives superior teams time to exert their superiority. But one-possession games, not so much.
The Thunder is playing too many tight games. That will come back to bite OKC. The law of averages will win out. The Thunder can’t keep winning all these overtime games, and even more apparent, can’t keep winning all these one-possession games. Tie score last night; Russell Westbrook drives, gets fouled and makes a foul shot. Then Monta Ellis missed a jumper at the buzzer. Play that out enough, and Ellis will make his share, and Westbrook won’t get fouled.
I guess what I’m saying is this. The Thunder, playing at the same level it has this year, is likely to have a worse record next season. The Thunder will have to improve to stay on a 55-win pace.
Winning close games is a sign of maturity and clutch performance. It’s also a sign of luck.
OU basketball: What we’ve learned today
Here’s what we’ve learned so far today.
BYU head coach Dave Rose reacts during the first half of the NCAA Southeast regional college basketball semifinal game against Florida Thursday, March 24, 2011, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
1. BYU’s Dave Rose isn’t interested in the OU job. An OU source said Rose was contacted but turned down a chance to pursue the Sooner job. Rose is a Utah lifer (except for his two years at Houston U. as part of Phi Slama Jama) and a devout Mormon. It wasn’t a great fit.
2. Buzz Williams’ $3.5 million buyout at Marquette is problematic. My sources say Buzz is interested in OU and OU is interested in Buzz, but that $3.5 million buyout remains a stumbling block that the Sooners can’t get past.
3. CBS Sportsline’s Gary Parrish is reporting that Memphis coach Josh Pastner is about to sign a new deal, which would end OU/Pastner speculation.
Big 12 Basketball: Conference is getting tougher
Big 12 basketball is getting tougher. At least on the sidelines. Texas Tech hired Billy Gillispie, who is a social risk but a heck of a ballcoach. Missouri is making a strong run at Purdue’s Matt Painter. Now it’s Oklahoma’s move.
New Texas Tech men's basketball coach Billy Gillispie, left, gestures next to Texas Tech athletics director Kirby Hocutt during a news conference at United Spirit Arena in Lubbock, Texas, Wednesday, March 23, 2011. (AP Photo/Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, Zach Long)
That’s a stout duo to add to a 10-team league. Maybe it’s not like the early 2000s, when Kansas had Roy Williams, OSU had Eddie Sutton, OU had Kelvin Sampson, Texas had Rick Barnes, Texas Tech had Bobby Knight and Iowa State had Larrry Eustachy. But still, the current and prospective list of Big 12 coaches is getting better.
Replacing Pat Knight with Gillispie at Tech, and Mike Anderson with possibly Painter at Missouri, improves Big 12 coaching. Anderson did a good job at Mizzou, but Painter would be an absolute home run.
That increases the pressure on Joe Castiglione at OU. The Sooners don’t want to be perceived as a lesser program that takes fliers on coaches. Some of the names that have been tossed out — Buzz Williams, Lon Kruger, Dave Rose — are very good coaches. But if OU ends up with an up-and-comer, like Jeff Capel, the Sooners clearly would be behind on the coaching level. Capel quickly earned his stripes (before it fell apart), but there’s not a lot of time for the next coach to rebuild.
Kansas is Kansas and Texas is Texas. No one should think that Mark Turgeon’s program will slide at Texas A&M. Travis Ford has LaBryan Nash coming in at Oklahoma State. Frank Martin has turned Kansas State into a national player. The league is getting tougher. The next Sooner coach won’t have it easy.
NCAA Tournament: Jayhawks’ amazing defeat
Since Syracuse defeated Kansas in the 2003 NCAA championship game, here are the teams that have taken out the Jayhawks in the NCAAs:
Georgia Tech, Bucknell, Bradley, UCLA, Michigan State, Northern Iowa and Virginia Commonwealth.
Kansas has become a launching pad for dreams. The Jayhawks lost to Virginia Commonwealth 71-61 Sunday in the Southwest Regional championship game. VCU is headed for the Final Four, while Bill Self is left to figure out how his talented program keeps losing to inferior teams in March.
Kansas' Thomas Robinson leaves the floor after his team lost the Southwest regional final game against Virginia Commonwealth in the NCAA college basketball tournament on Sunday, March 27, 2011, in San Antonio. Virginia Commonwealth won 71-61. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
It’s hard to find anything bad to say about KU basketball, other than Kansas keeps getting eliminated by teams it has no business losing to. I mean, Virgina Commonwealth doesn’t even start with a B (Bucknell, Bradley), and the game wasn’t played in Oklahoma City, where in the last 13 years KU has lost NCAA Tournament games to Rhode Island, Bucknell and Northern Iowa.
It’s crazy. KU has not taken advantage of all kinds of bracket help. These top-seeded Jayhawks didn’t play a team seeded better than eighth. In the previous two NCAA Tournaments, KU played just one foe from a power conference, Michigan State, which beat the Jayhawks in the 2009 Sweet 16.
KU reached the 2008 Final Four by beating Davidson in the regional final, and Davidson missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer that would have won the game. KU played mid-majors in the Sweet 16 in both 2007 (Southern Illinois) and 2004 (Alabama-Birmingham).
Few teams have been given such cushy brackets over the years. Yet the Jayhawks have just the one Final Four to show for Self’s eight seasons. Give Kansas credit for taking advantage and winning that 2008 NCAA title.
But this has got to be exasperating if you’re a KU fan. Roy Williams kept losing to big-time programs: Carmelo and Syracuse in 2003, Maryland in 2002, Illinois and Self in 2001, Duke in 2000, Kentucky in 1999, Arizona in 1997, Syracuse in 1996, Virginia (work with me, here) in 1995, Purdue in 1994, North Carolina in 1993, Duke in the 1991 title game, UCLA in 1990.
In 14 NCAA Tournaments, Williams lost to mid-majors UTEP in 1992 and Rhode Island in 1998. Now Kansas is making it a regular occurence, and it’s hurting the Big 12.
Texas has become an annual March disappointment. OSU and OU have slipped from their national perches of earlier in the 2000s. Missouri is Missouri.
Kansas carries the Big 12 banner, and if the Jayhawks don’t stand tall, the conference withers.
The new-look Big 12, with 10 schools, appears to be a big-time basketball force, but there’s not a lot of NCAA Tournament evidence to support that. Eddie Sutton and Kelvin Sampson are gone. Rick Barnes can’t seem to get it together in the post-season. And now Kansas can’t beat the little guy.
Thunder: A night with Jeff Van Gundy
I spent Sunday in an Indianapolis hotel room, waiting for a flight back home Monday morning. Not a bad day to be holed up. A couple of NCAA Tournament regional finals, plus the Thunder on ESPN Sunday night.
Which meant an evening with Jeff Van Gundy. Van Gundy is my favorite sportscaster. Dry wit. Great insight. Self-deprecation.
In case you didn’t see the game, or were there, or watched the Fox Sports Oklahoma broadcast, here’s a sampling of his comments during the Thunder’s 99-90 victory over Portland:
On the newlook Thunder: “They look more like an NBA championship type team … they obviously felt (Serge) Ibaka was ready to be a starter. They obviously felt (James) Harden was ready to expand his role. There’s no doubt to me they’re starting to look more and more like a championship team than when they played very small. Now they’re starting the game huge. It’s a totally different, nasty type of starting unit.”
On the differences in the Thunder’s and Blazers’ defenses: “Oklahoma City defensively is very vanilla, they just guard just guard you man to man. Portland does more switching, more zone. But both do it exceptionally well. Both of these teams have exceptional coaches. But I’m going to say this. (Kevin) Durant makes you a really good coach.”
Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant (35) and Russell Westbrook (0) celebrate a point during the NBA game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Portland Trailblazers, Sunday, March 27, 2011, at the Oklahoma City Arena. Photo by Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
On Thunder coach Scotty Brooks’ slick appearance on the sidelines: “That’s disgraceful. He’s like a Hollywood starlet, with his hair all made up. He came to shootaround this morning with his hair a mess. We demand that he give us his best, even in shootaround.”
On the development of Harden: “I like his level of aggressiveness, he is taking the ball and attacking. I like the attacking style. He’s at the rim all night.”
On the OKC fan base, which seemed a little subdued Sunday night: “They are the best crowd in the NBA. Their regular season crowd is what many teams’ crowds are like in the playoffs.”
On why Portland’s Andre Miller fell to the court after throwing a long pass: “Is that old age?”
On the excessive number of offensive fouls called against Kendrick Perkins: “Perkins is an excellent screener. If you’re going to be an excellent screener in this league, you’re going to have to take some calls that are illegal screens. But he’s going to have cut back on the illegal screens he takes.”
On the omission of LaMarcus Aldridge from the Western Conference all-star team: “I think the commissioner should take some liberties. If there’s someone who’s deserving, just add a 13th” player to the roster.
On why he believes technical fouls should be an automatic point instead of having to shoot for the points: “In football, when you get a holding penalty, they don’t make you kick a field goal to get the penalty.”
On the next step for Kevin Durant: “If you look at him statistically, he’s about 1-1 assist to turnovers. Tonight he’s done a good job making the right decision on the right play. He’s going to have to beat people with the pass, the further he goes in his career. He’s shown signs of doing that. His offense with the ball is fine. His passing, take care of that.”
On a trio of Thunder fans sitting courtside, with the man wearing a Laker jersey, a woman wearing a Thunder shirt and a kid wearing a cap with a “D” on it: “That is one screwed up family. I think a family should have more unity.”
On Kendrick Perkins’ offense: “He’s better in the post than people give him credit for. He’s got a hard, but uncomplicated job. Defending, rebounding, screening.”
On Thabo Sefolosha: “Sefolosha is an elite defender. He’s got length, strength, tenacity, lateral quickness. He has everything you need to be a stopper.”
Answering a playful Brooks question on why he didn’t play Brooks during the 1997 playoffs, when Brooks was a backup point guard on Van Gundy’s Knickerbockers, who were short-handed after multiple players were suspended for Games 6 and 7 of a series against Miami: “You couldn’t guard the (Tim) Hardaway post up, much like (Eric) Maynor can’t guard the (Andre) Miller postup. I should have played you in that fourth quarter in Miami.” Later, Van Gundy said, “Scott Brooks remains bitter. When we had all those illegitimate suspensions, I didn’t play him. I played Chris Childs the whole way. Every time I come to Oklahoma City, he badgers me. I do feel bad. I should have given him a little bit.”
On Perkins’ disposition: “You don’t like your big guys being nice guys. They gotta have an edge to ‘em.”
On Russell Westbrook’s late 3-pointer, which helped clinch the victory: “A horrible possession, followed by a great shot, makes a coach very happy. They had nothing going. But as my partner Mark Jackson says, I’ll take good offense over good defense any day of the week.”
