How would OU & OSU fare if Big 12 collapsed?
I’ve written extensively the last two days about the Big 12 and its future, particularly how the University of Texas holds the key to the league’s fate. I don’t think Texas is aiming to leave the league. But if the Longhorns did leave, how would OU and OSU be impacted? Several thoughts:
1. Whatever becomes of the Sooners and Cowboys, be it switching leagues themselves or making a go of it with a refurbished Big 12, they will be together. Just as I think Texas and Texas A&M are tied together by Texas politics, the Bedlam rivals are welded together. If Texas were to leave for the Pac-10 or Big Ten, I think A&M would have to go with the ‘Horns. Or at least A&M would have to have a great consolation prize — the SEC probably the only acceptable alternative to staying with Texas.
If OU and OSU suddenly put themselves on the open market, OU would have more options than OSU. The Sooners have the bigger national name for football, and conference realignment always is about football. But OU’s options would then wither if other leagues knew OSU had to be part of the deal. It’s not that OSU is unattractive, it’s just that OU would bring the state’s television sets, which is what all this really is about.
But the Oklahoma legislature is like the Texas legislature; state appropriations trump even athletics. So sufficient pressure would be brought to make sure the Bedlam schools stay together. So what would be the best options? If Texas and A&M left, then I think the Big 12 would look West, if the conference powers believed the other 10 would stick together. Maybe add BYU and New Mexico. Possibly TCU or even make a run at Louisville.
If the Big 12 seemed in danger of implosion, then a couple of far-flung ideas could develop. A revamped Big Eight, plus Texas Tech and some Mountain West Conference additions. If Texas and A&M bolt, there won’t be a lot of passion for making sure Baylor is taken care of. Or how about this? Oklahoma and Nebraska try to put together their own league, with who knows who in it? Think Big East football wouldn’t want the Big Reds? Is that any geographically kookier than Texas in the Big Ten?
Or how about this. If Texas and A&M go, keep the 10 teams remaining as is, get a new name and form a confederation with the Big East. Get certification from the NCAA and play a conference title game, matching the two division champs. Play separate basketball tournaments, but have some hoops events. A ton of things would have to be worked out, from bowl tie-ins to regular-season scheduling, but lose Texas, and it’s time to think outside the box.
The Big East is a great lesson from which to draw. The Big East lost Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College earlier this decade. No one thought the league could survive as a football enterprise. But the Big East’s status actually has remained at about the same level, while the Atlantic Coast Conference, which swiped the three Big East members, has gone DOWN in status in recent years.
2. If the Big 12 stays in some kind of form, the Sooners’ and Cowboys’ recruiting would be ENHANCED by the loss of Texas. How’s this for a sales pitch. You’re Joe DeForest or Cale Gundy. You go into Houston or Dallas, recruiting a Texas blue-chipper, and you start telling parents how close your school is and how close most of your road games are. Tell them to price Southwest flights to Lubbock and Oklahoma City. Then tell them to price flights to Madison, Wisc., and Harrisburg, Pa. That’s one reason why I don’t believe Texas wants to leave the Big 12. The Longhorns’ recruiting has been spectacular since formation of the Big 12.
3. OU and OSU finances would be severely harmed. Their revenue streams would shrink. A ‘Horn-less Big 12 would no doubt reap a smaller network television contract, and how that money is recouped, I don’t know. It’s possible that without Texas, OU would be better off with an independent, Notre Dame-style contract. The Sooners wouldn’t get as much money as the Irish, but they might get more than a contract shared with league members not named Texas.
The least likely scenario on conference realignment is Colorado leaving for the Pac-10. The penalty for CU leaving could approach $15 million. If Colorado had $15 million, it would have a new football coach. If you jump to the Big Ten, maybe you could make that money back quickly. But the Pac-10? I don’t think so.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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Comments
Good try about OU and OSU enhancing their recruitment by Texas and Texas A&M leaving…all Texas and A&M do to counter that is point out that they’ll be playing more games on National TV, they’ll be playing against some really glamorous and famous teams like UM, OSU, PS. And, I don’t think OSU or OK will outcruit Texas and A&M in their own back yards under any circumstances…there are too many kids that have grown up dreaming of playing in Memorial stadium…not many Texas kids grow up dreaming of playing in Okla…I believe that Many OSU and OU Texas recruits are kids that Texas showed very little interest in.
It appears that Texas and Texas A&M hold a ’4 ace hand’ and the rest of the big 12 need to discard, reshuffle, and get new cards.
“Notre Dame” and how do you know Texas will not be in as many Bowl Games? Texas has beaten the top Big 10 Ten teams 3 out of the last 4 games they’ve met, and beat the last top Pac 10 Team they played. I’m guessing that you are a non-Texas fan and you are hoping they’ll have bad luck and not make bowl games…
The best scenario for the Oklahoma schools is if the Pac10 expands to 16 and takes both OK schools along with UT & TAMU + 2 more (TTech&NM or Colorado&Utah) to make up the numbers. Because the Northwest schools are insistent on playing the SoCal schools twice a year, adding 6 would actually be more palatable, politically to the Pac10′s current membership, than adding 2. The Arizona schools would lose their annual games with the SoCal schools, but they would gain the 2 annual Texas games, which may be enough to get their support.
If UT and TAMU go to the Big10, I see the OK schools joining the SEC eventually. They may take their sweet time doing it, though. In this scenario, Nebraska would do whatever it takes to get in to the Big10 as well, leaving Oklahoma in a Big8/12 where it’s strongest opponent is BYU or Utah (or maybe TCU or Houston). The SEC will take in Oklahoma at some point (The Big10 wouldn’t want them, the Pac10 wouldn’t want them without the Texas schools), but the SEC has a long TV contract that doesn’t run out until 2024 or so. Unless there’s a clause in the contract, taking the Oklahoma schools in before then would mean less TV money for each existing member of the SEC, and in this scenario, Oklahoma’s not going anywhere soon.
Ah, the old road game argument. Even in the Big Ten, Texas will have at least six games in Austin every year (four conference, two cupcakes). Then they’ll have the Texas-OU game and the A&M game, giving them eight games in the Lone Star State each and every year. The parents can skip the four conference road games and watch them on ABC (most likely), ESPN, or (worst case scenario) the Big Ten Network, which will be even more widely available in Texas than it already is if the Longhorns make the move. And how many parents go to all of the road games anyway?
The bit at the end about Colorado was the only argument in this column based on facts and reason instead of speculation and wild conjecture. I think CU and the Pac-10 can find a way to make it work, but there’s a chance the financial penalties could be a real issue. Of course, if the Big 12 completely dissolves, it can’t very well penalize the Buffs.
I seriously doubt UT leaves without having to take it’s little brother especially since the Texas Legislator and governorship is run by Aggies. Even though CU is pining to get an invite to the PAC 10. I seriously doubt the feeling is mutual. CU athletics are in terrible financial shape, they are awful in every sport and have been awful in every sport outside of football for the last 50 years (okay they are great in downhill skiing), don’t have a natural traveling partner, a large portion of the state feels no allegiance to CU athletics due to a high rate of non natives, etc. If UT leaves the Big 12 the only way I don’t see OU not in a heap of trouble is if the Big 10 and PAC 10 both go beyond 12 teams and OU gets included in that. If UT is the sole addition to the Big 10 then OU likely loses out to A&M as UT’s marquee non conference game. I doubt that UT would play both out of conference. OSU would take a hit as well but not anymore than the other remnants of the Big 12. As Richard wrote earlier, the best thing that can happen to OU and OSU is that the PAC 10 includes both to get to 16 teams and pairs them up as traveling partners, assuming that UT leaves the conference.
Boy, this sure smacks of hope that UT doesn’t leave the conference. Desperate, desperate hope. OU and OSU’s best option is the SEC. The Pac-10 requires unanimous support for expansion, and there’s not a snowball’s chance that all the schools will approve letting academic stalwarts OU and OSU in.
OU has a better football history than UT, but UT is a much hotter commodity, especially academically. UT is as good as gone.
I remember as a kid when my parents would let me go out somewhere with my friends, they would me take my little brother too. Kind of reminds me of the OU/OSU and UT/ATM thing. Why should OU and Texas be held back by their other State schools? They shouldn’t have to be a package deal. Doesn’t seem fair that OU and Texas would have to accept lesser revenue just so “little brother” could tag along. I grew up, and don’t have to take my little brother along if I don’t want to(although these days I love having him around). The college game needs to do the same thing and evolve. If there were to be any “package deal”, it should be OU and Texas in that package.
I don’t know as much as Berry, but I doubt if it came down to it that OU and OSU HAS to stay together. OU needs to possibly try and get into the SEC and to heck with Texas!
Funny how these UT fans are pitying OU if UT leaves. Get your nose out of the clouds fellas. OU has, is, and always will be better at football than UT. Don’t forget who has more Nation and Conference titles and who has more Heismans. You are also forgetting that the Big 12 has Nebraska. I’m sure the B12 could bring in TCU and another quality football school to account for the loss of UT and aTm. I wonder if UT fans realize that they have probably been the most underachieving football program ever. For a state with about 10X the population as Oklahoma and arguably the best HS football tradition to have less “Hardware” than OU in their trophy case is laughable.
Jeff, life is not “fair”. Negotiations are about power, and OSU & TAMU have enough power in their respective legislatures to force big brother to take them along, regardless of what big brother wants. If they don’t like it, well, OU & UT could always try to become private. Good luck with that.
Money can cure many things but an important dynamic is recruiting. Texans consider state before country. UT, especially in the Mack Brown era, has capitalized on this dynamic with the “why leave” recruiting pitch. Right now, UT plays mainly in the state of Texas. They rarely leave the state for non-conference (although that wouldn’t change) but every Big 12 South game is played in the Lone Star State – except the other year trip to Stillwater. They make only 1-2 trips to the Big 12 North per year.
Although plenty of recruits travel far away from home to play college ball, the majority of them stay regional given the choice. A big reason is because the parents/families want to attend as many games in person as possible. Again, Texas has capitalized on this with the state’s top prospects. A Big Ten move would dramatically change that dynamic. College Station is now a trip to Ann Arbor. Waco becomes East Lansing. Stillwater becomes Minneapolis. It goes from a reasonable weekend road trip to anywhere from 1,200 to 1,400 miles. The alternative is paying airfares in the hundreds of dollars.
Texas has the cash to fly their teams all over the country but it limits the proximity the fans, alums and parents of players have long enjoyed to games. Nearly every championship event (football, basketball) would be played in the Big Ten region. Texas fans have enjoyed home state advantage in all 3 of the Big 12 title game appearances under Brown.
Richard – Thanks for your insight. I didn’t realize that life wasn’t fair. I just find it kind of humorous how OSU has so much negative love for OU, and how OSU wishes and wants to stand on their own, out of the enormous shadow cast by “big brother” in Norman. Yet, if OU wants to bolt they have to take OSU along? Seems to me that OSU would welcome the opportunity to stand on their own. Heck, they might even finally win a division title in their conference.
A Texas defection from the Big 12 would not have much of an impact on Sooner football. Same could not be said for OSU or any other school in the Big 12 outside of Lincoln.
Texas leaving would affect everyone, including OU, though obviously, OSU would hurt more of OU left by itself.
As for recruiting & distance, Texas could have trotted out the same spiel back in the SWC days as well, but that didn’t exactly do them much good in the waning days of that conference. As it is, UT now plays 1-2 conference games north of Oklahoma (2 out of Texas) each year. If they join the Big10 along with TAMU (I think those 2 will go together), they’d have 3-4 conference out of Texas each year (just 4 if the Big10 adopts a 9-game conference schedule). That’s a difference of 2 games out of Texas. 2-3 north of Oklahoma. Would that affect recruiting? Well, back when Miami was winning national championships, none of their conference opponents were within driving distance. Something tells me that whether 2 extra games a year are within driving distance or not isn’t going to make up a recruit’s mind about where he wants to spend the next 4 years of his life.
I’m probably going to hear all kinds of awful things when I say this, but many so-called “experts” speculate that OU and OSU could go to the SEC if the Big 12 were to break up. I think its interesting and in some ways, I think OU & OSU fit the culture of the SEC. I can’t stand the SEC but if you’re going to join an athletic conference, its hard to beat the SEC.
I would like to Know the History and Scores of the bedlum series since its conception in 1904. Do you have any idea where I can find that information.

If Texas went to the Big ten or PAc 10 you would not see them as much as you do now in Bowl Games.