Super Bowl pick: Colts
Time was, the Super Bowl was more of a parade than a game. We pretty well knew who was going to win. We once had these scores in five straight Super Bowls: 38-9, 38-16, 46-10, 39-20, 42-10. The game was known as the Super Bore.
Those days are gone. In this decade, we’ve had more great games than any kind of other game put together. Rams 23, Titans 16, with that great game-ending tackle by Mike Jones on the goal line. Patriots 20, Rams 17 with the game-ending field goal. Patriots 32, Panthers 29 and Patriots 24, Eagles 21. Bill Belichick’s dynasty was built on three wins by three points each. New England also had a three-point loss, 17-14 to the Giants in that wonderful Super Bowl two years ago. Then of course the Pittsburgh-Arizona wild affair a year ago, won 27-23 by the Steelers.
Will we get the same kind of game tonight? Depends on the Colt defense. If Indianapolis’ defense gets some stops, the Colts will win easily. I don’t see New Orleans slowing Peyton Manning. The Colt offense is ahead of the game. Very difficult to stop at all, much less over four four quarters.
I think Indy will score at about 60 percent efficiency, which means, the equivalent of six touchdowns per 10 possessions. Some of that may be field goals (which are worth half the value in this system). But if the Colts get 10 possessions, I think that’s 41, 42 points. I don’t think the Colts will get 10 possessions. I think it will be more like eight. So that’s about 33, 34 points. That sounds right to me.
For the Saints to keep up, they’ve got to score touchdowns and a bunch of them. I think Indy’s defense is up to that challenge, even if Dwight Freeney doesn’t play. The Colt defense has been solid. I say it gets enough stops, and Peyton Manning gets Super Bowl No. 2.
Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 24.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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Comments
Thought the Colts would win as well,desire trumps talent.
Good for the Saints!!!!!
In 1995 I was coaching at a HS in Texas called the Alice Coyotes,although I was coaching tennis I wa close to FB program.
Alice advanced to Quarterfinals of State at Alice,game was played in Alice America at 2;00pm on Saturday.
The Alice Coyotes were playing Austin Westlake,Westlake had a qb I can not remember now who was the starter,in the second quarter w Alice leading by 10 pts,the Westlake QB got hurt and here comes this qb no one had ever heard of before and there was relief on the sideline because most backups are not as good as starter.Guess what it was Drew Brees,2nd play from scrimmage w Brees in command,he throws a TD.Austin Westlake won the game w Brees by 10 points and then they went on a won State Championship.
No one in State wanted him,no one but he landed at Purdue and was great there also and made All-American.
We all know the rest of story.
It s not always about size at QB,it is about smarts sometimes and Brees topping off his career this year w
Super Bowl win and MVP proves the point I would think.
Well done, as always, Berry. From a rational analysis, I think you nailed it. However, I think Dwight Freeney’s injury and the overwhelming emotional edge for all things New Orleans gives the edge to the Saints. 31-30, Who Dats!
P.S. I absolutely loved your little insight last week about the “pinch me moments” every time the Celtics and Lakers come to the Ford Center. It’s still surreal that OKC has hit the big stage. I’m glad you’re there to help cover it.