Projecting March Madness for Thunder & Bedlam rivals
We’re 24 days from March Madness, which in the olden days in Oklahoma meant NCAA Tournament but now has the icing on top — a month of NBA playoff races. Time to examine the status and hopes of the five teams that people care about most in the Oklahoma City metro. Thunder and the Bedlam rivals, women and men.
TEAM MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE POST-SEASON
1. OSU women: The Cowgirls are 18-4, 6-2 in the Big 12. The only way OSU could miss out on the NCAA Tournament would be to go something like 1-7 down the stretch. That’s not going to happen. The Cowgirls are headed for something like a No. 3 seed in the NCAAs. Their Big 12 title hopes are gone — Nebraska is running away with the league title — but the Cowgirls should be in prime position for March Madness.
2. OU women: The Sooner women are going to make it, too, barring a total collapse. OU is 15-6, 5-3. OU’s schedule is tougher down the stretch. The Sooners have only one certain win the rest of the way, home against Colorado. And OU hasn’t played as well on the road as has OSU.
3. Thunder: The Boomers are in right now, as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. But that changes almost daily. The Thunder finally has put a little distance between itself and the abyss; it is 11/2 games ahead of ninth-place Houston and Memphis. The Thunder also is just three games out of third place. But it won’t be easy making the playoffs. The Thunder is about to hit an easy stretch of games. From Feb. 20 through March 12, the Thunder plays 12 games and might be favored in 10 of them: at New York, at Minnesota, Phoenix, at San Antonio, Minnesota, Toronto, Sacramento, at Denver, at the Clippers, at Sacramento, New Orleans and New Jersey. Thunder might be underdogs only in the games at San Antonio and Denver. But 12 of the Thunder’s final 18 games are against teams currently above the playoff line.
4. OSU men. The Cowboys are 16-6, 4-4 in the Big 12. The Cowboys have some winnable road games coming up. At Texas Tech, at Iowa State. But OSU also has some losable home games. Baylor, Kansas. The Cowboys’ mission seems clear to me. Get to 9-7 in the conference, they’re in the NCAA field of 65. Go 8-8 in the Big 12, OSU is out. In Big 12 history, six teams have finished 8-8 in the conference standings. Only one of those six, Texas A&M in 2008, received a berth to the NCAAs. OSU’s non-conference schedule was void of marquee wins. The Cowboys have to get to 9-7.
5. OU men: The Sooners are 12-9, 3-4 in the Big 12. It’s going to be a struggle to finish with a winning record. The Sooners appear to have one certain win left. Home against Texas Tech. They appear to have at least three certain losses — at OSU, at Kansas, at Texas. Five games will be interesting. Home against Texas, Kansas State, Baylor and A&M, plus a road game at Colorado. Remarkably, the Sooners are unbeaten at home this season. But they haven’t played well. And the meat of their home schedule is coming up. OU, like OSU, has to get yo 9-7 to have a shot. I don’t see where six wins are coming from.
TEAM MOST LIKELY TO SUCCEED IN THE POST-SEASON
1. OU women:The Sooners host first- and second-round games. Huge advantage. Instead of going to Iowa City or South Bend or some place, OU likely will be a four or five seed playing in Lloyd Noble Center, where their chances rise exponentially. The Sooners can get to the Sweet 16 without leaving home.
2. OSU women: The Cowgirls should be in great shape to reach the Sweet 16, but there’s a catch. All-American point guard Andrea Riley has to sit out the first-round game, because of that slugging incident two years ago against LSU. Can O-State get a good enough seed that it can, without Riley, overpower a foe in the first round? Probably. But it’s been four years since the Cowgirls played without the point guard who has the ball in her hands 80 percent of the time. That first-round game will be culture shock to OSU. The better OSU players down the stretch, the better seed it will get and the better chance to avoid a first-round calamity.
3. OSU men: Travis Ford showed last year he’s a good March coach. The Cowboys upset OU in the Big 12 quarterfinals, then knocked off Tennessee in a great first-round NCAA game matching 8-9 seeds. OSU finally lost to top-seeded Pitt in a superb regional quarterfinal, but the Cowboys showed they were tournament tough. Can they do it again? Eddie Sutton teams always seemed rejuvenated by leaving the shackles of Big 12 play. Maybe Ford’s team is the same and can produce a first-round win.
4. OU men: The Sooners aren’t going to make it, but if they miraculously do, they would have enough momentum to pull a surprise. Just don’t ask me how on either count.
5. Thunder: The Thunder has a very good chance of making the playoffs and no chance of advancing once it gets there. NBA teams making their first playoff appearance get drummed in the postseason. It’s in the rules.
TEAM MOST LIKELY TO GO DEEP IN THE POST-SEASON
1. OSU women: I don’t see a Final Four in the Cowgirls’ future. But a regional final? That could happen. OSU, provided it survives Riley’s first-round absence, could win a regional semifinal. The Cowgirls might be a No. 2 seed. This is a tough team to play. Winning at Texas A&M last Sunday shows OSU can do a lot of things.
2. Thunder: I know, I know. I said OKC couldn’t get past the first round. But the teams have no shot at a deep run, no matter how much belief you suspend. Toss out the young-teams-must-pay-their-dues theory, and the Thunder would have a fighting chance. Look at their record. This team has been remarkably competitive. The Thunder is 28-21. Of those 21 defeats, only six have come by more than 10 points, and none of the six have come since Dec. 16. This team is growing up fast. Like I said, I believe the Thunder will get pulverized in the first round. But let me set up a scenario by which it could reach the Western Conference Finals. OKC finishes as the No. 6 seed. That’s possible. Denver comes in at No. 3. The Nuggets are playoff-tested, no doubt about it. But they are a little gimby. Carmelo is a little hurt. Birdman always is a candidate to crash. Chauncey Billups is a little old. Plus, isn’t Denver always a candidate to implode. George Karl teams can do that, especially teams with Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith on the roster. Let’s say Denver is both crippled and spatting. Maybe the Thunder could sneak an upset. That would set up Round 2 against who knows. But if a Portland or San Antonio could upset Dallas in the first round, the Thunder would be on a little more even footing. San Antonio is getting old fast; their playoff run will end sometime. Why not the middle of May 2010? And Portland isn’t much ahead of OKC in playoff experience. Portland was two years ahead of the Thunder in the rebuilding process, all on the same track. But if the Thunder makes the playoffs this year, they’ve jumped a year ahead. OKC-Portland in the Western Conference semifinals? The Blazers would be favored, but it wouldn’t be a huge upset if the Thunder won, having already won an earlier series.
3. OU women: The Sooners are very limited; lack of depth, lack of inside strength. However, if OU does the expected and wins two home games in the NCAAs, it would take only one game playing way over its head to reach the regional final. Not likely, but possible.
4. OSU men: If James Anderson somehow got on an incredible run, an historic run, a Carmelo Anthony-2003-run, maybe the Cowboys could fell some giants. I don’t think it’s possible, but I guess that’s a little better than saying it’s impossible.
5. OU men: If the Sooner men got incredibly hot, somehow pulled together the talent and the waywardness, somehow made March a month to remember, maybe won the Big 12 Tournament and miraculously won two games in the NCAAs, they would go to the regional semifinals and get 96-57, no matter who they played.
FIVE KEY STRETCHES AS THE SEASON NEARS CONCLUSION
1. Thunder April 6-14: Forget March Madness. This is Awesome April. The Thunder finishes the season with these six games — at Utah, Denver, Phoenix, at Golden State, at Portland, Memphis. Are you kidding me? Five games out of six against fellow playoff contenders, only one of which (Denver) seems to be ahead of the pack. Four games against the teams you’re trying to knock out of the playoffs so you can have your slot? That’s high drama in the NBA West.
2. OSU men, Feb. 6-20: The Cowboys’ next four games are these — at Texas Tech, home vs. OU, at Iowa State, home vs. Baylor. Win those four games, and OSU is 8-4 in the Big 12 and feeling pretty good about itself. Go 2-2 and it’s time to start printing NIT tickets.
3. OSU women, Feb. 17-24: The Cowgirls host A&M on Feb. 17 and host Texas a week later, with a Feb. 20 trip to Baylor in between. Three winnable showdowns, considering OSU’s already won at A&M and Baylor has proven a little shaky at home. Win those three games, and the Cowgirls will have solidified themselves as a top-10 team worthy of a No. 2 NCAA seed. Don’t sweep those games, and they’re back in the second-10 pack of the rankings.
4. OU women, Feb. 10-15: The Sooners have three straight home games. Baylor on Wednesday night, Colorado on Feb. 13, then mighty Connecticut on Feb. 15. Win home games in the league, and OU will be fine for NCAA seedings. But beating Baylor won’t be easy. Then take your chances, albethem miniscule, against UConn. OU’s chances of beating Connecticut, which has won 59 straight games and will have won 62 in a row when it comes to Norman, are about the same as the Indiana Pacers winning the 2010 NBA title. But let’s dream big. If the Sooners somehow pulled an upset, it would be the national story of the week. It would be Notre Dame beating UCLA and Bill Walton. It would be more shocking than George Mason reaching the Final Four. More shocking than Massachusetts voting Republican. If OU beat UConn, the Sooners might get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of how they do the rest of the year. Sort of a lifetime achievement award.
5. OU men, Saturday-Tuesday: I don’t see much drama for the Sooner men, other than trying to keep their homecourt streak going. Saturday against Texas then Tuesday night against Texas Tech represents the only time the rest of the year OU has two straight home games. I recommend winning both.
CIRCLE THE DATE ON YOUR CALENDAR
1. March 26: The Lakers return to the Ford Center. It’s always pinch-me time when the Lakers or Celtics come to Oklahoma City. Still hard to believe the NBA has landed in our lap. But this time it’s different. For the time in the Hornets/Thunder era of Oklahoma City, the majestic Lakers show up, and fans know they’ve got a team that can punch Kobe Bryant’s Gang right in the mouth. No ambushes. No luck-outs. A team that can stare down the Lakers.
2. Feb. 15: Terry Bradshaw’s Steelers never played in Oklahoma. The Mickey Mantle Yankees never came through here, unless it was exhibition. John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins never played the All-College. But the day after Valentine’s, the Connecticut women play in Lloyd Noble Center. They rank with Wooden’s Bruins and Bud Wilkinson’s Sooners as the greatest streakers in sports history. The chance to see history is rare.
3. Feb. 6: Truth is, just about any Thunder game will be the most exciting basketball we’ll see the rest of the year, but Saturday in Stillwater is not a game to miss. Two years ago, when Kurt Budke’s program bloomed, the Cowgirls blew out OU, ending a decade’s worth of Bedlam frustration. Now Budke has the better team again. Does that mean another Bedlam blowout, which fans raising the roof of Gallagher-Iba for women? Or will Sherri Coale produce a season-turning upset? Are Danielle Robinson and Riley the nation’s best point guards? This is not a game to miss.
4. Feb. 27: Top-ranked Kansas plays at OSU, and it’s a homecoming. For Bill Self, the pride of Edmond Memorial. For Xavier Henry, the pride of Putnam City. But more than anything, it’s a chance for the Cowboys to reverse most of what I’ve written so far. Beat Kansas, and everything changes. OSU’s Big 12 finish. OSU’s national reputation. Seedings in the NCAA Tournament. Upset Kansas, and March looks entirely different for the Cowboys.
5. March 6: OU men host Texas A&M in what will be the final home game of a forgettable season that started with such promise.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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