NFL predictions: Colts & Vikings
The great NFL teams, the teams that are sort of NBA-like in that they know they’ll make the playoffs, play all season for homefield advantage. The big winners were Indianapolis and New Orleans, who host the conference championship games on Sunday.
How much does homefield mean anymore? Since the merger in 1970, home teams are 53-25 in conference title games; they win a little more than two-thirds of the time. Which seems about right. But in this decade, road teams are more competitive, going 7-11 in conference title games. This decade, home teams have swept the conference title games only in 2008 (Arizona and Pittsburgh) and 2006 (Indianapolis and Chicago).
So the odds say one of the two road teams Sunday is likely to win. That would seem to indicate Minnesota, which has employed the novel concept of using a quarterback, unlike the Jetropolitans, who merely want to punt and get their defense back on the field. But the Vikings are playing on the road in a dome, which is supposed to be doomsday for opposing teams.
But is it? Do domes produce special advantages for NFL teams? In NFL history, home teams are 284-136 in the playoffs. That’s a winning percentage of .676, virtually identical to home teams’ winning percentage in championship games alone (.679). But dome teams are only 25-15 at home in the playoffs, a winning percentage of .625. Non-dome teams are 259-121 at home in the playoffs, a winning percentage of .682. Non-dome teams fare better at home than dome teams.
Who knew? Of course, the 21st century has brought a hybrid, retractable roof stadiums in Indianapolis, Seattle, Dallas, Houston (not that the Texans have played a playoff game there yet), Arizona. Probably some others I’m forgetting. Detroit. But the data certainly isn’t enough to make any determinations about retractable-roof stadiums yet. The dome data is clear, though. Domes don’t help the home teams any more than good old-fashioned outside air.
For grins, I tallied the home playoff records of every NFL franchise. The results will surprise you. (more…)
Holgorsen sounds like Leach
I listened to the Dana Holgorsen teleconference today — you can too; we have it on newsok.com at this link ( http://newsok.com/sports) — and it was interesting. The new Oklahoma State offensive coordinator talked about how he left Texas Tech for Houston because he wanted to call his own plays, so it wouldn’t make sense to leave Houston and NOT call his own plays. Said he hadn’t discussed contract length. Talked at length about how much he liked Kendall Hunter and would get the all-American tailback plenty of touches.
But here’s what struck me most about Holgorsen. He sounds just like Mike Leach. Not so much in content, though that too, but in cadence and voice inflection. Low key voice, which trails off on some thoughts. Sort of leaving you with the impression that everything he says is sort of matter of fact and just common sense, when in actuality it’s probably very complicated.
I mean it. They sound just alike. You know how they say some old married couples grow to start looking alike? Maybe it’s that way with coaches. Leach and Holgorsen spent 13 years together. Holgorsen was a player for Leach when he was offensive coordinator at Iowa Wesleyan, then Holgorsen was a fellow assistant coach with Leach at Valdosta State. Then when Leach was hired at Tech, he brought Holgorsen onto his staff.
That’s a lot of time together in meeting rooms and on practice fields, putting together a revolutionary offense. Sounds like Holgorsen has picked up plenty of Leach traits. If his offense works as well as Leach’s — and it certainly did at Houston U. — then OSU will be in good shape.
Chan Gailey: Not a bad hire for Buffalo
Jerry Jones has fired Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer, Chan Gailey and Dave Campo. Jones also has watched Bill Parcells give up in frustration after years as the Dallas Cowboys coach.
Jones has uttered regrets on only one of those moves. The firing of Gailey.
In NFL history, only two men have made the playoffs every year they’ve been head coaches, excluding current bosses John Harbaugh (two years), Rex Ryan (one) and Jim Caldwell (one). Those two men are Dutch Bergman, who in 1943 took over the Redskins for one year during the World War II drain of personnel, and Chan Gailey. (more…)
Chat Recap: Berry Tramel
Video: Bob Knight is great television
Chat Recap: Berry Tramel
Dungy to Seattle: What if?
Seattle Seahawks CEO Tod Leiweke last week took issue with the idea that he didn’t give minorities any real consideration for his job major job openings. Leiweke eventually hired Pete Carroll to be the head coach; the Seahawks still search for a president and didn’t hire John Schneider as general manager until Tuesday.
Leiweke revealed that in December he offered the job of Seahawks president to Tony Dungy, the first black head coach to win a Super Bowl. Dungy left the Indianapolis Colts after last season and has since been an analyst for NBC and a mentor to a variety of athletes.
Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy is dunked after the Colts defeated the Chicago Bears 29-17 in the Super Bowl XLI football game at Dolphin Stadium in Miami, Sunday, Feb. 4, 2007. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Reports indicate that Dungy, who lives in Tampa, rejected the Seattle offer for family reasons, which is completely valid, but that if Dungy had accepted, he was going to bring along Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier as head coach. Leiweke drew some heat for interviewing Frazier after reports surfaced that he was intent on hiring Carroll. The NFL’s Rooney Rule requires franchises to interview minority candidates for top positions; some thought the Frazier interview was mere window dressing to satisfy the Rooney Rule.
The lack of minorities in upper levels of the NFL — head coach, general manager, president, owner — is a concern, though the numbers have improved over the years. Dungy, a pioneer in the coaching profession, has been one of those voices of concern. But doesn’t Dungy have some responsibility here? Employment is a two-way street. There has to be an offer, and there has to be an acceptance. Tony Dungy had the power to add to the number of minorities in the NFL head coach club and the NFL top-executive club. Say yes to the Seahawks, and Frazier, not Pete Carroll, could be the new coach in Seattle, as soon as the Vikings’ playoff run ends.
Doesn’t Dungy have some responsibility? Asking owners to reach out to minorities, then rejecting the offer, seems a little disingenuous. And again, Dungy had his reasons. Most people know how Dungy in 2005 lost an 18-year-old son to suicide. Any decisions he makes concerning his family are completely justified. But so is Tod Leiweke for turning elsewhere after Dungy said no.
By the way, think about the ramifications of Dungy’s decision. Because Tony Dungy said no to the Seahawks, Lane Kiffin is the new coach at Southern Cal and Derek Dooley is the new coach at Tennessee. Kiffin would be loved, instead of reviled, on Rocky Top, and Carroll still would be in charge at Troy.
Did Vikings rub it in on Cowboys?
On the first play after the two-minute warning Sunday, with the Vikings leading Dallas 27-3, Minnesota faced 4th-and-3 from the Cowboy 11-yard line. The Vikes had four choices: field goal, take a knee, run the ball up the middle or throw.
Brett Favre did the latter, and threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Visanthe Shiancoe. Cowboy linebacker Keith Brooking went nuts. He ranted in front of the Viking bench and after the game called the touchdown “disrespectful. It was classless and all the things that are in that category. I’ll say it to the Vikings organization and whoever is over there calling plays. It wasn’t the right thing to do at that time. Period.”
Dallas Cowboys' Tony Romo (9) loses the ball as he is hit by Minnesota Vikings' Jared Allen during the first half of an NFL divisional playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 17, 2010, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Maybe not. The game was over. Dallas was defeated and wasn’t coming back. But let’s examine the Viking options. Field goal? No way. That’s the ultimate slap. Kicking a field goal up 27-3 indeed is running up the score. Taking a knee? That’s almost disrespectful the other way; taking a knee before time can run out is a sign of pity.
So Minnesota really had two choices. Run the ball or do what it did. I would have run the ball. A touchdown was not necessary, though it certainly added to the flavor of the Viking celebration. It gave Brett Favre a fourth TD pass, and it gave Shiancoe a chance to give the football away, to a woman in the front row of stands wearing his jersey number, Might of been his mom for all I know, but in a game where everyone who scores a touchdown cradles the ball back to the sideline like it’s the Ark of the Covenant and they scored the touchdown all by their lonesome, it still was a cool thing to see.
Still, there is no doubt that throwing the ball in that situation was rubbing salt in the Cowboys’ wounds. This is a big-boy football, so I don’t know if that matters to anyone. It would matter to me and any organization I was involved with, but maybe Favre, Brad Childress and the Vikes see it differently.
I did think Brooking’s reaction was over the top. Brooking’s reaction was worse than the pass. Parading in front of the Viking bench brought more disrespect to the game than Favre’s pass.
It’s a little bit like that Bedlam basketball flap of a few years ago. In Stillwater, 2005, OSU finished off a 12-point win over OU with John Lucas tossing an open-court alley oop to Ivan McFarlin for a game-finishing dunk. Both that dunk and Favre’s touchdown were more celebration with fans and each other than spitting in the eye of an opponent. Could Favrehave handed off? Could Lucas have dribbled out? Yes on both counts. But in the flow of the game, they did what they do. Favre throws the ball and Lucas looks for a big play.
Taking umbrage, as Brooking did, only made him, not the Vikings, look bad.
Again, I wouldn’t have thrown. But the bigger crime was the outrage expressed by Brooking.
NBA in OKC on MLK Day? Why not
The NBA will play games all over America today on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and most of them will be afternoon games, which signals a celebration. The Thunder will play in Atlanta, MLK’s hometown and the home of the Martin Luther King Jr. National Historic Site, which includes his boyhood home and the King Center, which is dedicated to his legacy. I toured them during the 1996 Olympics, and both are very well worth your time if you’re ever in Atlanta.
Oklahoma City has a strong MLK celebration every January. So why not a day-time basketball game at the Ford Center? Should OKC petition to get one of the matinee games next season.
I think it would work. NBA crowds are mostly white-collar, which means people who aren’t off already can get off if they need to. Some of the Loud City seats, especially the $10 end zone seats which often are the last sold or which remain empty for non-sellouts, might be tough sells, but that would be a prime sponsorship pitch for the Thunder. Send 10 kids to the Thunder game for $100. Send 100 kids for a $1,000. The Boys and Girls Club of OKC certainly would welcome such philanthropy.
The MLK Parade in Oklahoma City always is a moving tribute to the civil rights leader, but celebration is a worthy tribute, too. What a day that would be in OKC. A morning service at the Calvary Baptist Church, NE 2nd and Walnut, where King spoke in 1960 and where a few years earlier church elders voted not to hire him as pastor, considering him too young; then a parade through Deep Deuce, followed by a 2 p.m. tipoff at the Ford Center.
I think Oklahoma City would respond in a big-time way. Sports would only enhance the memorials and celebrations of one of our greatest Americans.
Emails in on Tech football and Bedlam basketball
The new emails are in, and lots of talk about Texas Tech. Oklahomans’ fascination with Mike Leach and the Tech saga is interesting. I know they liked Leach. I know they feared Tech while Leach was coach. But still, it all seems a little unnatural. Anyway, let’s get to it.
Robert: “I enjoyed what you wrote about Texas Tech football, putting some perspective on it that few Tech fans will really appreciate. There are a lot of younger or newer fans of Tech football that have a limited knowledge of the success Tech had since the ’30s. It’s somewhat cyclic, every 20-30 years somebody ‘gets it’ and can lead Tech to a one/two loss season. Pete Cawthon did it in the ’30s and Weaver in the ’50s. But that was when Tech was a giant in the Border Conference. I can’t help to think that if Tuberville stays at Tech long enough, that this cycle is somewhat broken. I loved what Leach did but he’s not Texas Tech alone. Anyway, great work. I have sent the link to several of my Tech pals who are having a hard time with the transition to Tommy.”
You know, the old Border Conference sounds cool. Tech. Arizona State and Arizona. New Mexico State and New Mexico. UTEP. Hardin-Simmons. West Texas State. Fun football, I’ll bet.
Dewayne: “In your blog you mentioned that you believe that Tech can win without Mike Leach and I tend to agree, with some exception. You said ‘the notion that no one else can win at Tech, or South Florida, or Oklahoma, or Alabama, or anywhere is just silly.’ First, Leach as weird as he is, is in my opinion one of the best coaches in the college football world. If not the best. He was taking the runts while Texas and Oklahoma were taking the pick of the litter when it came to recruiting. His record against Texas and Oklahoma is testament to his abilities as a coach. Finding another Leach will prove to be impossibility for Tech. How many other young guns are out there with that kind of football genius? Even if Tech chooses to keep its current staff, the day in and day out genius of Mike Leach will be gone and the team will be and play a little different. I just don’t believe that the Alamo Bowl was any good indicator of things to come with Tech. Even with OU’s winning tradition and being a name football school, it took OU over 10 years to get back to where they were when they let Switzer go. Tech is not a name football school, nor do they have any real tradition, so their road back may be a little longer. The bottom line is, I believe Tech needed Leach a whole lot more than Leach needed Tech.”
Several things need to be said. First, Leach’s record against Texas was 2-8. Spike Dykes’ record against Texas was 6-7. OK, the ‘Horns weren’t as good during the Dykes era. But let’s not pretend Leach had Tech at the pinnacle of college football. The Red Raiders had one monster year under Leach. Tech also had one monster year under Jim Carlen (11-1 in 1973) and one monster year under Steve Sloan (10-2 in 1976). Leach coached 10 years and twice had three or fewer losses. You don’t think other coaches can do that? Tech’s ‘road back’ will be long? Tech under Leach went to two Cotton Bowls, two Houston Bowls, two Alamo Bowls, one Gator Bowl, one Insight Bowl, one Champs Sports and one Holiday Bowl. Mike Leach is an excellent coach. But to pretend he did stuff that never had been done at Tech is just plain wrong. And the idea that Tech will fall off the map is just plain silly.
Larry: “I wanted to tell you what I thought of the Tommy Tuberville hiring by my alma mater, but I can’t. We’re not supposed to use dirty language over the company server. He’s gotten off to a bad start with me. The first thing he did was promise to keep the Air Raid. Claimed he’d be a fool not to. Praised it to high heaven. Then Day One he runs off Lincoln Riley, who is most qualified to provide continuity and insight, and an ace recruiter to boot. Then he hires an offensive coordinator who runs a different version of the spread, in the process discarding what has been our identity. Just what in God’s name does he think he’s going to do to improve on our offensive performance? We have loads of room on the other side of the football for improvement. That’s where anybody with any sense would focus his effort. I think we just witnessed the passing of the golden era of Tech football, and the long slide backwards begins. Hope I’m wrong.”
I would have kept Ruffin McNeill, in some capacity. He was very popular with the players, he was a tie to the past, he appeared to me – in dealings at Big 12 media days and watching from afar – that he had little ego. Seems like Tuberville could have found a place for a guy like that.
William: “Man, it seems like coaching changes bring the same kind of carnage you read about in World History. Burn and pillage every vestige of the past, no how good they were. Tech just canned a great group of people. Leach will be (or is) a very wealthy man when this is all over. However, the people that had been the most loyal to him will be still scrambling to reprove themselves to someone else.”
That’s the people to feel sorry for, Leach’s staff and support personnel who are out of a job. Leach will be fine.
Let’s move on to college basketball. Some talk about Bedlam and the Sooners. James: wrote about OU: “I sure like Jeff Capel. I don’t know how this season is going to turn out but I like his handling of the team.”
I have to say, I’m not crazy about Capel’s handling of the team. Negative reinforcement doesn’t work as well as positive reinforcement. Too much negative reinforcement, taking away practice gear and locking them out of the locker room. Hey, this is a team game. Lock the coaches out of the offices if we’re passing around blame.
Jeffrey also wrote about Bedlam basketball: “How do you see the OU basketball team doing? Were some problems solved Monday?”
I don’t see how. The Sooners won at home in overtime against a mid-level Big 12 team that missed a bunch of easy shots and played five key minutes down the stretch without its star, who was injured driving for what would have been a 10-point lead. Not a lot of reason for optimism.
Richard: “I know it’s commentary, but come on, why do you continue from football to blame all OSU problems on injuries? Would not a better commentary have been how well OU stepped up, especially after the way they have been playing? Please remember your crowd of readers and listeners. Aren’t there still more OU fans? Bob Jr. at least says that about the TV market. Why were there so few OSU fans in Lloyd Noble last night? Tickets were certainly available. The fewest I have seen here in Norman in years.”
This is one of my all-time favorite emails, because it shows the total displacement from reality some fans experience. OU fails to sell out a Bedlam basketball game, and the question is where are the OSU fans? And there’s a reference to OSU blaming football problems on injuries? Every OU football story of the last four months has been injury-related. This email is what is known as lack of institutional control.
Greg also wrote about OU basketball: “I have a feeling we are about to watch the fickle finger of fans go crazy. Frankly, there is a lot of talent on this team, but no one ever seems to want to play well on the same night. I think if they ever got that great game from the bulk or all of the team on the same night against good competition it would be like a wakeup call, but the longer they go from playing such a game, the more it becomes a remote possibility.”
It’s a mystery. I think there is talent, but it’s mostly young and seems directionless. This is a test to Capel’s coaching, and so far, he’s failing.
Now, on to some miscellaneous subjects. Derek: “I must say that the results of the national title game made me believe in karma. As soon as McCoy went down, my mind returned to October, when I listened to UT fans cheer lustily as Sam Bradford was injured. It’s a shame that McCoy was not able to play. He seems a stand-up guy. But next time, maybe UT fans will give a thought to that old saw, ‘what comes around, goes around.’”
No chance. Fans don’t empathize with opponents.
Jeff: “Did the Alabama fans go nuts when McCoy got hurt? Like the thousands of Horn fans did when Sam was hurt? ”
I would assume not. Bama fans are pretty cool.
Terry: “I was reading some of the blogs about Pete Carroll leaving and one blogger said that some years ago, the Oklahoma legislature had passed a bill that would allow a monthly stipend for each OU football player. I had never heard that, assuming that’s true.”
Sounds like he’s got his states mixed up. Nebraska had a guy, Ernie Chambers, who annually tried to pass a bill that would pay Husker players. Never went anywhere, so far as I know.
Jim wrote about the Thunder: “I know Russell Westbrook has been playing well as of late and I have to give him props for making the tying bucket in regulation, but it seems to me, that the final in-bounds play is going awry. Looks to me like they are trying to break KD free, but Westbrook keeps getting the ball and missing the shot. That’s at least a couple of games now. The Thunder need to do a better job of working an in-bounds play to finish the game. Westbrook had about the same shot to win the game as he did to tie it. Too bad he wasn’t 2-for-2.”
A couple of things. First, I wouldn’t take the ball at midcourt unless we were down to 4-5 seconds. I think the defense really gets to set up. Take out the ball on the baseline and make the defense defend the entire court. As for Durant, the Thunder tries to set him up one-on-one too much. I’d much rather run offense. Remember the play at the end of the third quarter (I think it was the third), when Durant was used as a decoy and Harden got free for a 3-pointer. The Thunder has 4-5 guys that can produce in that situation. Don’t zero in on Durant.
Owen wrote about my Mark McGwire blog: “You’re right on the money. His ‘I used them to get/stay healthy’ line should have come with a laugh track.”
I don’t understand what little empathy I see for McGwire. He fessed up – sort of – only when he wanted the coaching job with the Cardinals. Here’s a question. Could baseball ban the steroid users, not from playing obviously, but from otherwise working in baseball? Think about it. They aren’t union. Their only option would be to use, which seems like a problem in the court of public opinion. Oh well, probably would just discourage anyone from coming clean.
Kent also wrote about McGwire: “Who cares about McGwire? It’s old news and no surprise that he used steroids.”
You asked a rhetorical question. I think it was a legit question. I don’t think anyone cares about McGwire. I think the pulled-punch of an apology only angered whatever people still were paying attention.
Eric wrote about my list of one-and-done coaches: “What about Dirk Koetter’s one day as coach of the OSU Cowboys?”
Wow. Hadn’t thought of that in years. How would the history of OSU football have changed had Koetter kept the job? No Les Miles. Maybe not even a Mike Gundy, you never know.
