OU’s offense predictable? Think again
Another OU loss — especially a fourth loss in the season — always urges fans to search for reasons why. Some of their findings are solid. Recruiting mistakes. Lack of big-play ability, or at least acumen. Bad luck.
But the most common refrain on any OU defeat in which the score is somewhere south of 45-35, is that the play-calling is too predictable. They said it about Mark Mangino’s offense. They said it about Chuck Long’s. They say it about Kevin Wilson’s.
And they always are wrong. Always. We can say that OU passed too much, and we might be right. We can say that OU ran too much, and we might be right. But anyone who says they can predict what OU is going to do is flat out lying.
We hear it after every defeat, and the example always given is first downs. Usually that they always know when a first-down run is coming. Which is nonsense.
Obviously, in obvious passing situations, you can tell a pass is coming. Obviously, with an empty backfield, you know a pass is coming. But no one knows when a run is coming, especially on first down.
This is always one of my favorite research projects. Go back and study OU’s first-down plays in a game. And it’s always balanced. It is not predictable.
Against Nebraska, OU ran 38 first-down plays (which is a remarkable number in itself). Most of those plays were out of the shotgun, which was OU’s formation most of the game. Of those 38 first-down plays, OU ran 16 times and passed 22.
Some will say that late in the game, OU had to pass on first down, and I’ll grant you that. So toss out OU’s final two possessions, which came in the final six minutes. The Sooners had 33 first-down plays. They ran 16 times and passed 17 times.
The idea that OU is too predictable is just silly.
If you want to bust Kevin Wilson for his game plans, fine. They are not above critique. If you want to bust Wilson for his lack of offensive line development, I say go for it. That’s the No. 1 problem, outside of injuries, for this Sooner squad. If you want to bust Wilson because this offense, unlike others in OU’s recent history, failed to show improvement when November arrived, OK. That’s a valid discussion.
But don’t go telling people that OU’s offense is predictable, that you know what’s coming, that the Sooners always are running on first down. Because they aren’t.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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Comments
The only way the 50% run and 50% pass changes is when a team is trying to play catch up and go to pass to do that.
Dead on Tram…….I cannot believe that I am watching a Stoops team that plays without a sense of urgency. There are flashes of the “old” teams but for the most part it appears we are waiting for the mistakes and/or turnovers. Those teams almost always lose.
The difficulty I have with all of it is effort. I never want to see a player on our sideline yelling at a coach. That is usually a sign that something is very wrong.
The fall from the BCS championship game to the third or fourth Big 12 bowl game is a mighty one. I never saw it coming.
I agree but disagree on some of it. It depends on the level you look at it. If you just look at run or pass sure its not as predictable, but if you include down, distance, and formation it becomes more predictable. Quote straight from Coach Wilson in press conference. I choose the play that gives us the greatest chance of succeeding given the down and distance. He goes by the book on percentages given down and distance. You don’t think the opposing sides defensive coach has those same percentages? I would like to see more variation of plays out of a single formation. When you run only a few plays out of each formation then it reduces the amount of coverages the defenses have to play in that formation.
Barry,
Are you kidding me? I couldn’t disagree more. I was at the Miami game. I was at the National Championship Game last year. I went to the BYU game and every home game except one. When OU runs the ball the QB hurries to the line quicker than normal, turns around, looks at Chris Brown announcing to the defense he is going to hand it off, then bam… My wife even knows when it is a run,and she doesn’t even know football. You are wrong. When Kevin Wilson ran 7 time in a row with the game in the balance in Miami, you could tell every play because the qb turns around and looks at the rb before the snap. It is a dead giveaway. Sit by me before a game, and I will tell you 90% of the time when we are going to run.
Barry, I couldn’t agree more. I’m out here in Northeast Ohio and I get blasted all the time. I record all the games. I watch them twice for the pleasure of it and once to study. Although they are not predictable, I do see OU run when it appears the correct call is a play-action fake. For instance, if we complete two passes for decent gains, OU will run almost every time. All in all, I agree with what you’re saying.
yes ou offense is predictable, you can tell the way they line-up and the recievers give it away if its a sideline pass, sooner or later the opposing defense will take it back for a td. i don,t care what coach stoops says it is what it is. change it up and put some fresh bodies in on the front line if not it will be the same ole same ole.
Barrym i repsect your opinions on your views when it comes to OU football but on this subject, Im goona have to dis-agree with you a little…. I think the main problem with OU’s play-calling on offense is not the fact thaey are being predictable, is more of them being comfused at the line of scrimage. Just look at them them when they are looking at “TWIDDLE DEE”( Josh Huepul) and “TWIDDLE DUMB) Cale Gundy), Landery Jones looks like a deer in the head-lights when trying to figure out what play they are sending in when they are looking over and standing for 4-5 seconds to decide what to run. and of course by then, the defense has been given time to figure out on what to look for when OU does eventualy snap the ball and runs the predictable zone read off tackle or 10-n-out pass play.. I think Sam Bradford was an exception when it came to running the offense last year and looking over and seeing what to run. but Landry is different, he cant call an audiable on his own without being confused by the sideline. he needs to play to where its more comfortable for him and see where he can direct the offense when establishing a drive and not this der in the headlights act at the line of scrimage… can you say “huddle-up” for a change????
The play calling isn’t predictable, but the run game lacks any creativity. Draw plays, shovel passes, pitch sweeps, quarterback keepers, triple options, mis-direction, trap plays…all of that appears to be missing from OU’s play book. It’s always dive left, dive right behind a line that can’t block very well. Aren’t there any reserve players on defense that could be moved to the o-line (ala Frank Romero on one of the early Stoops teams)?
sooner nation, it will really be interesting too hear what and watch laid-back-bob, has too say today. what i don,t like stoops is always barking at the defense, i disagree bark at the offense and your dissarray quarterback, you would figure after 9-games oklahoma knows landry is a average quarterback with in-experienced, i could care-less about the stouche,fans want results. stoops if he struggles please put someone else in who can make better decisions and make plays or it could get ugly again. i be watching later when i get home on channel-7 out of lawton. me and my boys here in texas and altus,okla are frustrated with the offense. guys on defense you are awesome. and also start jimmy stevens he is the better kicker also. tress couldn,t hit the side of a barn.
Besides the offensive line just totally stinking. I believe the play calling sucks. Knowing your line stinks and repeatedly running straight up the middle to nothing and then the sideline to sideline passes for no gain. when the short slant’s are working. I don’t see much in the way of trying anything to help Jones get the ball off quicker. The recievers are dropping half of what are noramlly catchable balls. I’m blaming most of everything on the coaching. It’s they’re call to change whats not working whether it be a player not performing or the play calling not working. There does come a time when your game plan doesn’t work and you go to plan B or C. I see Wilson riding his plan straight into the ground
The number of passes and runs called on first down isn’t what matters as far as predicability goes. It’s what play gets run out of which formation and which personnel. And in that, we do seem very predictable. If I’m recognizing it 70% of the time, then I would guess that opposing coaches and players that have watched film all week are doing even better than that.
Add to that that our QBs are absolutely zero threat to run, combined with our not so great line, and it’s not surprising that we have so little success running out of the shotgun.
Keep on drinking the kool-aid Berry. Against Nebraska, every time Suh was out of the game, Wilson sent in a run play and was stuffed at the line. I would call that predictable. I know you are afraid to ask the hard questions, it is ok. It is pretty typical of the press these days to not ask any hard questions.
As a football coach myself, I’ll tell you Berry is on the money with his analysis, but as a Sooner (born and bred), I finally feel a need to speak up about some popular misconceptions. Also, the coaching community is generally close-knit and calling out a coach in public is usually frowned upon, but we all choose a forum to speak, this is mine for now.
For the record, OU’s offense is truly balanced, and they are in no way predictable. However, that tells only a small portion of their offensive story.
Contrary to what most people believe, you do not have to have balance on a football field! Look at some of the greatest teams in history (high school, college, or pro). Some of them would run the ball 80-90%. Do you think the defense knew what they were going to do? Of course. Yet, if they wanted to, they could almost come to the line, announce the next play, and regardless it was going to gain yards! Why? Execution and players.
Look at Georgia Tech this year. Do you think coaches know what Paul Johnson is going to do with his offense? Of course. Yet they are 9-1. Why? Execution…and they only have good players now, not great ones yet. Can you imagine what Paul Johnson will do when he has great players? Now, that guy and his coaching staff are the real deal!
Football, in the grand scheme of things, really isn’t as complicated as most people make it. If I have better execution than you and I have better players than you, I will beat you in a football game 95 times out of 100 with those five fallacies being for some sort of special teams miracles.
Guys and gals, that is the current issue with OU football. Not the type of offense they run, not the predictability, not the balance. These young men have not been “coached up” enough to have superior execution and have not been put into a proper scheme.
Unfortunately OU also hasn’t recruited well on the OL for a couple of years, which when you combine poor execution with average college athletes, you get poor outcomes.
Last year, many thought the OU offensive coaching staff were geniuses. Why has it changed? Well, once you no longer have the superior athletes that can take your poor teaching techniques and still make you look good, your flaws reign supreme.
A perfect example of this is the defense this year. What does the defense have? Superior athletes! The techniques haven’t changed, which will also show, once again, when these current players are gone, but most think the OU defensive coaching staff are geniuses this year.
Folks, all these gentlemen are good coaches, don’t get me wrong, but they seem to be too comfortable in their positions, which is a death wish in this profession.
If you take one thing away from this rant, take this. It’s not the athletes, it’s not the offense, it’s not the lack of balance. It’s the lack of repetition, superior execution, scheme, and most importantly the lack of teaching. I hate to say that, but any coach reading this knows it’s true. I wish the best for my Sooners, but until change occurs, get used to what your seeing folks.
I agree with your article. And for those who think this is such a tragic fall from heights of championships…..3 years ago Florida wins the BCS championship against Ohio St. The next season, they are 7-4. Wake up….players leave and players get injured.
I have to admit i can’t always tell when OU will run the ball , but when the game is tight Wilson is very conservative and calls a lot of runs on first down . The first play almost every game is a wheel route to the back out in the flats or a wide receiver screen , am I wrong ? Very predictable ! If I can call the plays from my couch then Houston we have a problem . P.S. How many of you didn’t know late in the Texas game that on 3rd and 5 or 6 that McCoy was going to run a qb draw .
I feel OU is lacking any variety in their run game. Wilson calls the same plays over and over, thinking the outcome is going to be different when the problem with said plays is not executing them. Why don’t we have more variety of plays called for the run game? I’ll tell you why, Wilson is not an “Offensive Thinker”. You need someone like the coach at Boise State who mixes us his run plays, Ga Tech does the same thing. That keeps the defense guessing on what kind of running play is coming. Let’s also put an end to the hurry up and wait routine that seems to bog this offense down. Call a play, execute, call the next play, execute. Quit trying to outguess what the defense is going to do!
I echo Steve’s comments. The Sooner Offense cannot execute at a high level. Last year’s talent masked this problem and this year’s mix of players has exposed this problem. The Sooner coaching staff needs to take the blinders off and recognize this. As of Stoops comments today it appears the blinders will remain on so we will see more of the same ineptness on the offense we have seen this season.
OU has left it’s run game to develop pass type for Bradford. Their backs are not great, thus they fall back to pass happy plays when things get tough. They have to.
You know Berry, maybe you can’t predict the plays but some people in Ok and most in the nation darned sure can. Forget you stupid numbers(stats), those can be used to prove anything the presenter wants. How about situational awareness, have you ever heard of that one. Talk about predictable,check the time on the clock and the score at that time and see if you can’t predict when Wilson is going to call Brown or Murray up the middle for no gain, and Wilson has done that crappy play twice in a row several times. Spend some more of your time giving the play calling a total look. Make sure you look at the situation and the time on the clock before you start spitting out 50% numbers.
The play calling is just as good this season as last. Like Barry always said’
“It’s not the alignment, It’s the alignee’s” OU is not very much better now
than they were in the opening game. The blocking is still just as bad, the
penalties, special teams, tackling, still poor. OU seems to get worse as the
season goes on, and this isn’t the first season to do it. They have only one
win on the road and four loss’s. They lost Sat. night to a team with an offense worse than theirs. Don’t jump the assistant coach’s, Stoops is running the show. If he is clueless, which he is starting to prove he is, with Balogun and
Stephens his latest example of a few, then he needs to wake-up and
understand that he is accountable for every game, plays called, alignments,
etc. I’m starting to think he is Gary Gibb’s when it comes to offense. Clueless!
Stoops is making that walk to the “out-house” shorter and shorter with
every loss and discombobulated performance he puts on the field. As it
stands now, he is the most over-rated Div. 1 coach, and OU is the most
over-rated team, except for N.D.. in Div. 1. Just like Sampson rode Billy’s
coat tails, Stoops is riding Barry’s. It’s time for the 4 million dollar man to
start earning his salary, again
Its not a matter of predicting run versus pass, its is the variety of plays within each of those two categories that is the problem.
You are setting up a straw man argument.
Trammel, how more arrogant can you get? Even with all your connections into OU football and sitting on Switzer’s lap all those years, you know less than most of the posters here.
Here let me do your job for you.
Kevin Wilson cannot game plan against teams of equal talent. This is evident by OU’s won/loss records against ranked teams since he became OFFENSIVE Coordinator for the 2006 season.
In 2006 OU played 6 ranked teams and finished 4-2 against them. Against teams ranked lower, OU was 4-1. OU lost its only game against a higher ranked team, Texas. So Wilson game planned well enough to beat the teams he should have and couldn’t beat Texas or Boise St which essentially was equally ranked. Going into the Fiesta Bowl, Boise was ranked #9 when we were ranked #8.
In 2007 OU played 4 ranked teams and finished 3-2 (played a ranked Missou twice). Against teams ranked lower, OU was 2-2 but also lost to unranked Colorado and Tech. Against teams ranked higher, OU was 1-0, but this is a sham as it underserved #1 ranked Missou. A very poor showing as Wilson was able to game plan to beat the teams with lesser talent only at a slightly better than break even rate and couldn’t plan for 2 road games.
In 2008 OU played 7 ranked teams and finished 5-2. Against teams ranked lower, OU was 5-2 with the one being Texas at only 2 spots behind and Florida being #2 in the final BCS pole. So Wilson game planned good enough to beat teams ranked below OU and was 0-2 against teams of equal talent.
In 2009 OU has so far played against 3 ranked teams and is 0-3. Against teams ranked lower 0-2. Against teams ranked higher, Texas, 0-1. This year he has not produced a game plan that can beat any ranked teams and we lost to Nebraska, which I would argue that their defense had equal talent.
So in the three seasons, almost four now, Wilson has been O-Coordinator, he can usually beat teams ranked below him but has yet to hatch a game plan good enough to beat a team ranked above OU even with a Peterson and a Heisman Trophy winner and 9 offensive linemen who made NFL rosters. But the really telling number he is 1-3 against Texas.
This should be a no-brainer and has been for 2 years now. Wilson can barely game plan to beat teams with lesser talent and cannot beat teams with equal talent.
COME ON TRAMEL, MAKE STOOPS EARN HIS MONEY AND MAKE THE DECISION THAT NEEDS TO BE MADE.
Tramel I got a prediction for you. Next time OU has a first and goal situation, the play call will be off tackle left. That’s Wilson’s tendency in that down and distance.
Just because you can’t determine what the play call will be cause you ignore down, distance, formation, and tendency doesn’t mean the rest of the world is as oblivious as you.
Wake up, Wilson calls the same plays in the same situations from the same formations every game and has done so for almost 4 years now. That’s why he is predictable. Not because he calls runs on first downs or second down and passes on thrid down. Wide reciever screens and swing passes are telegraphed to everyone in the stadium, you just have pay attention to see what’s coming.
The above poster was correct, you set up a straw man, beat it a pulp, and called people alot of names in doing so. You’re a real piece of work.
Am I not mistaken in thinking that minus are injuries of the last two weeks and just focusing on the loss of Bradford and Gresham that this is the team that would have been fielded had the two decided to go pro? Blaming the injuries seems like an excuse when we got lucky that Bradford didn’t go to the Lions.
I agree with everything Steve says except for the one thing he says about coaches: “they seem to be too comfortable in their positions, which is a death wish in this profession.”
Not at OU. When is the last time Bob Stoops fired an assistant coach? There are a few coaches who need to go either because they can’t coach or can’t recruit. The only time we see a change in the staff is when someone leaves to take another job. We can’t get better that way if coaching deficiencies are not addressed.
Back in the day, I correctly predicted the first offensive play of the game virtually every game. And it didn’t matter that the opponent knew, too. It almost always succeeded.
Fullback up the middle.
Maybe its time to find a QB who can option and also throw?
Question,has he ever called a pass play when the QB is under the center? At least not a drop back pass.
That…was pathetic. You are confusing balance of pass vs run with predictability. I could argue with you about this but you might have a hard time hearing me as every defensive coach in America is laughing too hard right now.
Right on target Berry,great analysis of OU team.
The correct play calling is always going to be w balance of run verus pass both coaches Wilson and Gundy at OSU do that well.Good teams strive to be 50% pass and 50% run.
That is the only way to keep defensive coordinators guessing.