BCS a longshot for OU or OSU
When you’ve got a team of interest challenging in the BCS rankings, they are interesting to study. The computer rankings, the polls, how the danged thing all fits together in the first place. You can spend 10-15 minutes deciphering information from the expanded BCS chart.
But if you’ve got no team in the fight, it’s like studying pig-Latin. Doesn’t really get you anywhere.
No reason for Oklahomans to study the BCS chart in 2009. Oklahoma State is 19th and Oklahoma is 24th in the BCS rankings. About the only drama left in this season is if the Sooners or Cowboys can win out and what bowl game that would earn.
A BCS bowl is the best consolation prize for a non-Big 12 champion, but that’s very unlikely for OU or OSU, even if one of them wins out.
It’s not so much that they wouldn’t crack the top 14 in the BCS and thus be eligible. I think OSU in particular, but OU, too, would be in the top 14 if they win out. The Sooners would be 9-3 and rising fast, with three close losses to good teams, all with Sam Bradford sidelined for all or more than half the game. The Cowboys would be 10-2 and, coming off a win in Norman, well into the top 14.
But the problem is too many marquee teams also likely to be eligible. The BCS has four at-large teams. Two of the slots are virtual locks: the Florida-Alabama loser, probably to the Sugar Bowl, and either TCU or Boise State, whichever finishes higher in the BCS. Boise State isn’t likely to lose the rest of the year, but if TCU goes unbeaten, too, the Horned Frogs will likely be ranked higher.
So that leaves two slots. Let’s look at the chief contenders:
* Southern Cal. The Trojans are 12th and will move higher if they win out, against a relatively easy schedule. At Arizona State, followed by home games against Stanford, UCLA and Arizona. A 10-2 USC would be more attractive to, say, the Fiesta Bowl than a 9-3 Oklahoma or a 10-2 OSU.
* The Penn State-Ohio State winner. Those Big Ten powers play Saturday in State College, Pa. If Penn State wins, it would be 9-1, with games remaining against Indiana and at Michigan State. If Ohio State wins, it would be 8-2, with games remaining against Iowa and at Michigan. BCS contenders should hope for an Ohio State victory, because the Buckeyes are more likely to lose again.
* Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 22nd in the BCS, barely ahead of OU, but the meat of its schedule is in the past. Notre Dame is 6-2 and finishes with Navy, at Pitt, Connecticut and at Stanford. The last three games are losable, but also winnable. If Notre Dame wins out to get to 10-2, they will be in the top 14 and will be in the BCS.
* Boise State. Don’t laugh. Let’s say TCU and Boise State win out and finish something like 4-5 in the BCS. TCU would be automatically included, but Boise State would be awfully attractive. A Boise State-USC Fiesta Bowl? Are you kidding me? FOX would eat up another David-Goliath showdown.
So if you’re OU or OSU, and you want the BCS, here’s how to cheer.
Hope TCU loses, probably to Utah. Hope Notre Dame loses, and at Pitt on Nov. 14 is the most likely candidate. Hope Ohio State beats Penn State, then loses to Iowa or Michigan. Hope USC loses one of its final four Pac-10 games.
With a lot of help, the Bedlam winner could claw back into BCS contention. But that’s a longshot.
Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel.
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Comments
I just want a Bowl victory THIS year…everything looks real good for OU to be in the hunt again next year!
I cautiously optimistic after the RRR that OU COULD win the last 6 games….D was playing well, LJ has the tools just needed the line to step up…
looks good! I’ll be in Lincoln cheering the Sooners on this Sat!
Bob Stoops needs to re-learn how to properly prepare a team for a bowl game, and his coaches need to re-learn how to coach during a bowl game, so Sooner fans should not be hoping for a BCS bowl this year.
As for OSU, the Pokes got beaten down in the second half of last year’s Holiday Bowl, so they don’t need to waste their time worrying about whether they will make a BCS bowl either.
TCU has already played and disposed of BYU (38-7). Utah will be in Fort Worth in 2 weeks and will be TCU’s toughest opponent left this season. Don’t count on TCU losing that game at home.