Beating Texas would retool OU season
If OU loses to Texas, then 2009 officially goes in the clunker file as far as Sooner seasons. A 3-3 record in late October? Disaster.
But what if the Sooners beat Texas? A 4-2 record and the Big 12 South lead? What does that do to OU outlooks, and I’m not even talking about the emotional satisfaction of wrecking the Longhorns’ national title hopes.
Here’s a brain-teaser. Before this season, there was a good chance OU was going to be 5-1 on the evening of Oct. 17. Go 5-0, then lose to Texas. OU-Texas is usually a tossup game no matter the circumstances, and eyeballing these Sooners, they weren’t quite as good as we all thought. So even if you reverse those one-point defeats to BYU and Miami, there’s a decent chance OU would fall to Texas and be 5-1.
But if the Sooners find a way to beat the Longhorns now, OU will be 4-2.
So, which would you rather be: 5-1 with a loss to Texas or 4-2 with a victory over Texas?
I say the latter. And not because you would have a pair of Longhorns on your dashboard. If the Sooners get to 4-2, they will control the Big 12 South race and be on pace to win a fourth straight Big 12 title. At 5-1, OU would have a better record but would be behind Texas in the divisional race and would be hoping for Texas to stumble, either two losses or some kind of three-way tie to repeat from 2008.
I don’t think OU was making another national title game with a loss to Texas. The Sooners did that in 2008 and two things would prohibit a repeat. 1. Cosmic forces. No way are we headed for another three-way tie. Far too many things have to happen, and no team seems likely of going 7-1 besides OU and Texas. OSU has too many holes after injuries and ineligibilities. 2. Voters. Lose to Texas and the voters won’t be as kind as they were a year ago, when the coaches narrowly voted OU ahead of UT in the poll and subsequent BCS standings that determined the Big 12 championship game participant. No way would voters let OU slide in again. Which means the Sooners would be counting on Texas to lose twice. Uh, I don’t see it in this watered-down conference. Maybe in Stillwater, but where else?
Of course, at 4-2, OU’s national title hopes are virtually gone as well. LSU made the title game (and won) in 2007 with two defeats but needed all kinds of help. LSU had extenuating circumstances that season; both its defeats were in overtime. Of course, OU has extenuating circumstances; both its defeats were by one point with Sam Bradford sidelined by injury.
Could OU get enough help to rise all the way to No. 2 by season’s end? Doubtful. It would need another USC defeat; some Big Ten losses by the combination of Ohio State, Iowa and Penn State; another Virginia Tech loss; losses by Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Miami. That’s a long laundry list.
But I still think that longshot has longer life shelf than 5-1 with a loss to Texas. And at 4-2, OU at least would have the Big 12 title as a carrot.
All of which means this. The one-point defeats were discouraging and disappointing and maddening for the Sooners and their fans. But beat Texas, and the season takes on a whole new light.
Secreat weapon: Franks at flanker
A reader emailed last week with a great idea for the OU football team. Why not spot Dom Franks on offense?
Don’t look now, but Franks has become quite the weapon as a punt returner. The last two games, Franks has three punt returns of greater than 40 yards. Not too shabby for a guy who didn’t have the punt return job until Ryan Broyles’ injury early in the Miami game.
Franks is one of OU’s fastest players and has shown that he’s got quite the nack for finding open-field seams and making people miss. Which is exactly what the Sooners are missing on offense without Broyles.
Why not insert Franks on occasion offensively? Send him deep — OU has no deep threats — or hit him with a quick screen or something.
I’m not talking about playing Franks full-time on offense. Just spot him five or six plays against Texas. At the least, give the Longhorns something to think about.
Two-way players became trendy in the 1990s. OSU did it with R.W. McQuarters. Kansas State did it with Chris Canty. OU used it a tad with Andre Woolfolk, before permanently moving Woolfolk from wide receiver to cornerback.
I don’t know why it has fallen from favor. Perhaps everything has gotten too complicated, both offense and defense. Perhaps the practice time can’t be spared.
But desperate times cause for desperate measures, and this OU squad cries out for some talent in the receiving corps. That talent can be found on the defensive side, where Franks is an excellent cornerback.
Emails in on OU-Miami
The new emails are in, and the fallout from OU-Miami is mighty. We’ll group them by the Venables posse, the Wilson posse, the Stoops posse, the fire-everyone posse and the fans who aren’t quite so crazy. Heck, let’s start with Stoops.
Mike: “You hit it on the head on ‘No Defense.’ I would like someone to ask Bob why we have gone from a dime or nickel package on third downs when we know the opponent is going to pass. When Mike Stoops was here we could expect five or six defensive backs on third down. With Venables, we leave our linebackers in where the MLB has trouble covering tight ends or crossing patterns in the middle. This goes back to Texas last year with Shipley, BYU and Miami. It appears to be the defensive scheme is killing us as much as anything. With regard to Kevin, I really wonder who is calling the plays in the fourth quarter, Bob or Wilson. We have had a number of offensive coordinators and our play calling in big games on the road has been the same since Leach left. Conservative. Let’s play not to lose the game rather than being aggressive and going all out to win. The one common denominator has been Bob Stoops.”
Anyone know OU’s record away from Owen Field the year Leach was coordinator? 2-5. Scored 25 points on Ole Miss, 28 on Tech, 31 on Iowa State, 24 on Colorado, 28 on Texas, 30 on Notre Dame and 42 on Louisville. Not bad, really, but not nearly as impressive as in Norman. Sort of like now. OU doesn’t use as much nickel now because Keenan Clayton is a hybrid. He’s a safety who can play linebacker. Which can lead to problems against the run, which is the killer that no one seems to want to talk about.
Tom: “I was reading the Oklahoman interview script with Stoops this morning and was really shocked by his reaction to criticism. I learned in my business that criticism, I had to learn to accept it. These days I usually agree with many of their comments. I am much better because of the criticism. I don’t think Bob can handle criticism at all. He locked the press out of practice since 2006 mostly from criticism. No question, the data says that his teams have dropped off since that fateful game with USC. Honestly, since 1999, OU has become more conservative every single year depending more on talent than coaching effort. You can’t do that with the 85 scholarship rule. I will never forget Leach lighting up A&M in Norman with the Ninja Offense. I think sometimes you get so close to a situation that you can’t see what is happening. In 2000, when OU won it all, I remember the coaching staff scouted themselves during the open week and game planned against themselves to make sure they didn’t have any specific tendencies that other teams could pick up on. I don’t think they do that anymore and they sure need to. All you have to do is look at the formation and you know what is coming. It is not rocket science when watching OU, and there is little deception.”
Tom is right. Stoops doesn’t handle criticism very well. Actually, it’s not really criticism. Stoops doesn’t suffer fools gladly, which is lamentable. That’s a wonderful trait to have. Anyway, I don’t buy this conservative talk. Sure, OU was conservative against Miami. No Bradford, no Gresham, no Broyles. They had to go into a bunker and try to scrape out a victory, and they almost did it. But conservative in recent years? No way. That’s ridiculous. The no-huddle. The multiple formations, from power-I to shotgun spread. There’s nothing conservative about that.
William, an OU critic: “It’s such a relief that we won’t have to hear the word ‘national championship’ anymore this year in connection with OU football. As you can see, the spoiled fans will be satisfied with nothing less. Other coaches are just as smart and recruit just as well or better. I think Bob is in for a rough ride. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Stoops. He is a good coach. Unfortunately for him he won the whole thing in his second year, a hard standard to maintain, and yet the fans expect it. Blake left Stoops a ton of talent, especially on defense. They’ve never been as good on defense as they were in 2001 and 2002. I love OU and wish the academics and great cultural elements of the university were showcased more. Bob MIGHT win another Big 12 championship, but it will get harder. Other teams are recruiting so well. What he’s done is in the past. His glory days are in the past. Just wait and see.
Well, yes, what Bob Stoops has done is in the past. And just exactly how is that different from every person walking the Earth? Stoops MIGHT win another Big 12 title? OK, let’s trot it out again. The all-time standings in terms of coaches winning Big 12 titles. John Mackovic 1, Tom Osborne 1, R.C. Slocum 1, Frank Solich 1, Gary Barnett 1, Bill Snyder 1, Mack Brown 1, Bob Stoops 6. Yes, I would say he has a chance to win another Big 12 title.
Now, on to Venables. Gary: “What keeps hurting us year after year is the drag pattern and tight ends down the middle. I guess these are linebackers’ responsibility. What will Shipley and Texas do to these linebackers? Here are a list of teams with pro-coaches experience or coordinators Alabama, USC, LSU, Washington, Nebraska and offense coordinator for Miami who just came from Philadelphia Eagles ( I’m sure I left others out of the mix). Our offensive coordinator has Northwestern background and our defensive coordinator has Kansas State, two powerhouses with winning traditions. Stoops needs major upgrade to his coaching staff. Same old problem. Sooners can’t run and Murray and Brown won’t be playing on Sundays as running backs. Oklahoma has major injuries this year and were only favored by seven points for the Miami game. They scored three TDs and no field goal; we got two TDs and two field goals If we get four touchdowns and no field goals we win by seven. I just hope we don’t get hyped up by the media again next year. One of these years they will have to prove themselves first. Hey, it still beats the John Blake years.”
Go back and read that email again. This is a textbook case of a psychotic fan who is sitting in a room, his brain scrambled, trying to make sense of it all. Where to start, where to start? Year after year on tight end drags? Texas in 2008 and Miami a little bit last Saturday. That is year after year? OU lost to Miami because it allowed the Hurricanes to run the ball. Period. Here is a list of coaches with no pro experience: Mike Leach, Mike Stoops, Mark Mangino. All the guys OU fans lament losing. And I love the math lesson. Yes, turn one of those field goals into a touchdown, and OU beats Miami. Heck, get a safety and OU beats Miami.
Brent: “Has anyone looked at the results of Mike Stoops leaving? Venables is a great technique teacher but a mediocre (at best) defensive coordinator. My background is a Sooner fan since 1970 and a high school and NCAA Division II football official of 24 years experience. I’ve seen a few games in my lifetime. Since Mike Stoops left (November 2003), the defensive plays ‘bend don’t break,’ gives up more points (more games over 20+ points), more yards passing, more first downs. The numbers don’t lie and they are all trending the wrong way! OU wins when they out talent people now. Equal talent means a high chance of a loss. Our blitz packages are now predictable and non-effective for the most part. When we start in a 5-man front, we’re highly successful. Four-man fronts with linebackers 6-8 yards off the ball means giving up yards. If I can chart this, why can’t they? Mike Stoops was the aggressive coach. Venables is still at OU because no one else wants him. Leach, Mangino, Stoops, Long – all got head coaching jobs. Venables couldn’t even get the job back where he came from; KSU went back to Snyder. Until Venables goes, OU will win very few big games. Defensive wins championships. It allows your offense to play on a shorter field. Few teams can drive 80 yards, with near mistake free football, to score on a regular basis. The data doesn’t lie. If you write this, just give me a little credit.”
Here’s the funny part. This guy signed off with “grace and peace.” He’s leading a lynch mob and leaving behind a card that says “grace and peace.” Now that’s funny. But not as funny as wanting credit for saying OU gives up more points and yards the last five years than it did the previous five years. I guess I have to keep saying this, but you know Big 12 football and college football has changed. Teams are scoring more all over the country. Comparing 2001 defenses to 2009 defenses is like comparing baseball offense in 1961 to baseball offense in 1968, when scoring was so down they had to change the rules.
Steve: “Why is it the whenever the Sooners face a decent passing team, they are so open to passes across the middle? This goes back for several seasons. A&M game a few years ago, OSU and continues this season with BYU and now Miami. Sure, Tulsa didn’t do much, but Tulsa really doesn’t have much. I have been on the Venables-must-go bandwagon for years. And if Stoops keeps defending him, then let’s start the Stoops chant as well. Just sick of another overrated defensive team. Rockies canned Hurdle and they rolled.
The best example you can come up with is a different sport, different level and different culture? That’s what you want to risk the status of OU football on? By the way, those A&M and OSU games you referenced were the Mike Stoops era. And again, OU lost to Miami not because of free-roaming receivers, but because James gained 150 yards on 15 carries.
Chad: “I always enjoy reading your columns, even when I disagree. I find myself in agreement with you in defense of the offensive play calling. The Sooners have an amazing dearth of speed and play-makers on offense, and the line is too porous. Anything but the safe approach is foolhardy. But I still believe Venables needs to move on. His failures in too many big games presents a healthy amount of examples. He is not a bad coach, given his successes against Missouri and Texas Tech. But he is also not an exceptional coach in any way. If I remember correctly, when Texas was in a tad of a funk (as much a funk as 10 wins every year can be) a few years back, Mack Brown changed coordinators. He recognized that he needed a good coordinator more than he needed a good buddy on his staff.”
You know, I think it would be a fascinating poll of disgruntled fans. You can only fire one coach. Is it Wilson or is it Venables? I’m guessing Venables would win the election, but it might be close.
Bill: “Pretty good column on Wilson, although he’s building a resume’ of turning into Woody Hayes whenever the chips are down: three yards and a cloud of dust. Pretty obvious when we’re sitting at the Miami 20 with five minutes to play that Wilson has zero trust in Landry Jones, based on the plays called in that series. In tight spots, Kevin drifts back to Big Ten football, but I suspect he’ll figure that out soon enough this year when it becomes obvious he’s going to have to win games with his group, injuries or not. Think about this, though: When was the last time a Brent Venables defense got a stop to win a key, tight football game? The answer rolls all the way back to 2006. Three years. Was there anyone on Earth not wearing a headset who didn’t expect a drag route from the tight end on 3rd-and-6 with two minutes left? Instead, we get Ryan Reynolds, who is a proven liability in the passing game, and Keenan Clayton, who had a tough night all around, inexplicably in the ballgame. We’ve seen it before. Reynolds goes down against Texas last year and Venables tries to match back up with Brandon Crow and Lamont Robinson. No Sam Proctor, or no other DB. No Austin Box, either. Shipley goes nuts. Right now, I can see Shipley and Dan Buckner combining for at least 250 against this exercise in hubris we call the Cover Two. I’d like to read your thoughts about a defensive coordinator and a head coach who continue to throw ballgames away because they steadfastly refuse to match up with receivers in passing situations. There are some growing systemic patterns in the OU football program that look like corporate arrogance to me, not good football preparation or execution.”
This sounds like a call to play without a middle linebacker, which is truly revolutionary football. No one’s ever done it, so far as I know, but it would be interesting. And by the way, OU lost to Miami because it couldn’t stop the run.
Mark: “Is it just me or do we just get outcoached every time we play a ranked opponent outside the big 12? Shouldn’t Venables be encouraged to take another job at the end of the year or am I off base?”
It’s not just you. But you are off base. Could OU find a couple of better coordinators? Probably. But the chances of falling are much better than the chances of improving. If there is a problem, and I would agree that there is, the far better method is working through it. OU has won three straight Big 12 titles and is very close to being the nation’s most elite program. It is NOT the most elite program, but it is close, and throwing the baby out with the bathwater is not prudent.
James: “The problem is not with Kevin Wilson, although everyone in the football universe knew that with one successful draw play he’d call another one in the same situation. The problem is with Brent Venables. I know. Handsome, nice, capable, should be head coach. Lousy with one critical aspect of OU’s defense: Give ‘em the crossing route passes all night, but don’t get burned on the long one. So, opposing coaches simply recognize
OU’s soft underbelly, instruct the QB to throw over the linebackers and Voila! there goes 4, 6, 9, 13 yards on each play. End of story. Even that nitwit Brent Musburger recognized that flaw in OU’s vaunted defense when Jacory Harris began picking OU to pieces. Funny how coaches attain certain lofty (and other) heights. It seems like heresy to be critical of Venables. But if I’m wrong, I know you’ll correct me. Simply reply and say “James, you’re wrong.”
From you, I’ll buy it.”
James, you’re wrong. But plenty of people believe you’re wrong because they see Kevin Wilson as the absolute problem.
Jerry: “Needless to say I was so very upset with the Miami game. I understand that injuries hurt any team, but that is why you have good recruits, to fill in. We do not play enough of our players, so if we do have problems we can count on other people other than the starters. Each time we have this problem, Kevin Wilson gets too conservative! I am not a fan of Mr. Wilson at all. It is time to promote Josh Heupel to call the offensive plays. He has a really sharp mind and a good coach. I love Brent Venables, the only problem I have with him is that he always uses the same defense each game no matter who we are playing. One of the best ways to beat Oklahoma is just throw the ball in the middle a lot, because they cannot defend it at all. I realize that we cannot win every game and we got spoiled because of last year, but we need to change things up a little and find some people that can step up when we have injuries!”
Actually, this has happened before, and Wilson was anything but conservative. In 2007,. Bradford goes down at Texas Tech, and OU sends in Joey Halzle and throws the ball all over the place, when it should have run more. Stoops even admitted it. And again, OU’s defensive problems were run-related. Why do fans get so irrational after a defeat?
Richard quoted from my Sunday column: “‘But just exactly what was Wilson supposed to call with Bradford, Gresham and Broyles out?’ Well, Berry, he could not be so predictable; I mean running on first down most of the time. What is wrong with a first down pass play? Has Wilson never heard of play action? Just think, during the times that the Sooners were running well, what could a play action pass play do? Pick up a first down maybe? Have a long gain for a change? Yes, I know, the receivers have to get open, but with play action, it would probably give them more time to shake defenders and give Landry Jones more time to find the open man. I don’t claim to be an expert, but tell me where I am wrong.”
OK. I’ll tell you. Wilson wasn’t predictable. Like I said, 1st-and-10, OU ran 17 running plays and 11 pass plays. Seems pretty unpredictable to me. I meant what I said. What was Wilson supposed to do? Now, I think a little more first-down passing would have been better, and more third-down runs. But the truth is, Miami’s defense was better than OU’s offense, and there’s not much you can do about it from that standpoint.
Len: “There is a large group of us season ticketholders and donors wondering when somebody, namely the press, is going to quit being intimidated by Bob Stoops and start reporting OU football as it should be. OU has as much or more talent than anybody in the country. OU was ready to come out tonight and attack Miami and take the game under control. But Kevin Wilson wants to run on first and second down and then put pressure on Jones to throw for a first on 3rd-and-10. This guy is worse than Chuck Long, who we finally got rid of and who has proved to be a flop. But nobody will call Stoops on it because they are afraid of him. I pay a ton of money to buy my tickets and I have the right to go to the games or not go to the games. Why do I want to spend my Saturdays going to see this? And why do you continue to report senseless articles about who were the greatest second-team team quarterbacks, or what was the history of OU-Miami games or all of this silly stuff that you guys dream up that nobody reads or cares about. Why don’t you report about what happened tonight? It was a coaching debacle and somebody needs to have the balls to report it. You need to speak for the public. They are your readers and they pay the money for Stoops to get his outrageous salary and hire people like Kevin Wilson who I guarantee you tonight is looking in the mirror and doesn’t have a clue what happened.”
I love this email, for this reason. Here’s what I wrote back to the guy – “Please. Settle down. When you say that OU has as much talent as anyone in the country, you are embarrassing yourself. OU’s receivers, without Broyles and Gresham, are not elite. OU’s offensive line is just OK. And the Sooners are playing with a young quarterback who looks good against Tulsa and Idaho State, but Miami is a whole different deal. OU had 28 1st-and-10′s. It ran 17 times and passed 11 times. Sounds like someone doesn’t have a clue as to what happened.’ And Len wrote me back: “You are right. We were so upset last night, we were throwing chairs. Best.’”
Jerry: “After the Miami disaster tonight, I’m still a loyal Sooner fan, but the Sooner Nation may need your help. Hopefully you will question Kevin Wilson’s playcalling in big games (BCS bowls, national championship game and now Miami). Where was the play action pass, when even the broadcasters were saying it was a perfect time for it? He seems to call free wheeling, up tempo, games until the pressure is on, then he goes conservative and seems to over think it and choke. In golf we all call it the yips. I know Broyles injury hurt in this game but we still had a chance on that last drive (like we did against BYU but settled for a field goal instead of a game sealing TD), but he called what he usually calls at critical times when the pressure is on in big games. A run, then another, etc. I think opposing coaches can be heard in preparing for big games with OU what Tom Hanks said in the movie Cast Away, ‘I know you Wilson.’ Maybe it’s time for some new blood. Could Josh Heupel do worse? He is probably too young to have the yips.”
I loved Cast Away. What a great movie. There’s like a 25-minute sequence with no talking, or maybe just Tom Hanks talking to himself. Loved it. Anyway, all this red-zone talk boils down to Florida, where OU failed twice. Once when it ran and once when it threw. Then the BYU deal was a clock problem (which was indeed a coaching issue, I’ll grant you). In Miami, OU was just trying to get out of their with its head, after Broyles was hurt.
Gerry: “It’s apparent the defense is either lacking in ability or there’s a problem with the coaching. And the offensive line is average at best. If the line had protected better, the Sooners would have probably scored two more touchdowns. After the first drive of the game, Kevin Wilson got too conservative. There’s still a truckload of talent on offense, and with some imaginative play-calling, the Sooners would have scored more points. With the erratic play of the offensive line, the Bradford family has a difficult decision. Sam wants to play, but exposing him to Texas and other opponents might place his future at risk. I think the Sooners need to let Landry Jones improvise on offense with more rollouts and designed scrambles.”
Let’s be clear about something. There is NOT a truckload of talent on offense. Where is it? Not at receiver. Not on the line. Not at quarterback. OU has two good running backs. Outside of that, where is the talent? Standing on the sideline. Everyone wants to believe that play-calling makes a huge difference in games. But the truth is, gameplanning makes a bigger difference. And blocking and throwing and running and catching make the biggest difference of all. But I do like the idea of more rollouts.
Some fans don’t want heads to roll, but they’re not crazy about what they see. Steven: “What are your thoughts on the Sooners’ offensive scheme of looking to the sideline? It seems like they would do that to get in a better play and I am sure it works more times than not, but I saw a couple on Saturday where it didn’t appear to. On a 3rd-and-3 Cameron Kenney was lined up outside and the corner was at least eight yards off him. Landry never looked that way and his pass fell incomplete to the other side. Even Herbstreit saw Kenney would’ve been open. It seems like they would have a call for the receiver to go to the first down, turn around, and catch the ball. Also on OU’s last possession it was 2nd-and-11 or so and on TV you could see all 11 Miami players in the screen. I would consider that loading the box. You would think the obvious call would be to give one of your receivers a chance with man to man coverage. I don’t know if those plays would have made a difference, but I just wonder how often they change the call.”
Well, you’re probably right about those two plays in question. Any play that doesn’t work is subject to scrutiny. But the notion that OU’s offense suddenly doesn’t work, that turning around looking to the sidelines somehow impedes the Sooners, well, that’s ridiculous. It worked to fabulous heights just a year ago.
Tony: “You’re being too tough on the OU defense; 35 points in two games against two ranked teams on the road? C’mon man, I never bought these claims of ‘best Stoops defense’ at the beginning of the year. Absurd; better than a defense with Calmus, Harris, Williams, Dvoracek, Strait? However, they have improved. The problem with our defense is not the players, it’s the scheme. OU plays a 4-3 soft zone, with the concept of stop the run, force the pass, don’t get beat deep. Corners play way too safe, that’s why 10 yard outs/slants are wide open all the time. If Jackson and Franks are supposed to be such great corners, why can they not press off the line? Bottom line is this: Stoops/Venables play a system defense, and you either play the system or sit the bench. Those coaches have no tolerance for any player who does anything that is different than they are taught. As with the offense, it is way too predictable what we do on defense. It’s not a talent issue, it’s a ‘we got better players than most teams, so we aren’t gonna change our scheme for anybody’ issue. For about the last seven years, and especially after Mike Stoops and Mike Leach have left, we keep beating the crap out of average teams and can’t win a game against a team who either has a) more than two weeks to plan for us or b) can match us with talent. Sure, there might be one or two exceptions over that seven-year period, but against ranked teams outside the conference, it’s only getting uglier each year. That Miami team had speed, but talent was no better, and they were beat up. OU plays them in Norman, and they crush them. You’re wrong on the defense. They are playing much better than 2008. If I told you before each game that BYU would get 13 points and Miami 20, you would have bet the house OU wins both games by a bunch.”
BYU, yes. OU, no. I picked OU to beat Miami 19-14. No way was OU going to score much more than the low 20s on Miami. But let me get this straight. Which one of us likes the OU defense? I’m confused. You keep talking about soft zones and coverages, but OU lost to Miami – I’ll keep repeating this until the cows come home – because the Hurricanes ran the football so well.
Richard: “I probably need to stop reading all these Oklahoma publications because I start believing all the hype they print. Oklahoma’s defense is good but it is not great. Gerald McCoy is a good college player but will never be in the same class as Harris, Casillas, Bryan or the Selmons. I was surprised the announcers never said Gerald McCoy’s name during the Miami game. He never made a great stop in the backfield or hurried the QB into making a bad toss. The half of dozen times I focused on him he was being blocked by just one guy, with a second in the wings in case help was needed but it never was. Oklahoma is not a top 20 team and if I was Bradford ‘s parents I would think long and hard about allowing my son to put his NFL riches on the line behind that offensive line. Don’t misunderstand me, I still love and support the Sooners, but this season has taken a very dramatic turn. I’m no longer thinking about a national championship but whether or not Oklahoma can beat Nebraska and Oklahoma State ? A Texas loss is a foregone conclusion.”
I think McCoy was double-teamed a bunch against Miami. I think he’s pretty good. Maybe not Selmon or Harris or Casillas good, but just below them.
James didn’t like kicking the field goal late, even though it was 4th-and-9. “The field goal strategy is ‘too utopian.’ Success is predicated on the assumption that several things in a row will work out well. I know that odds were long in a 4th-and-9, but I think that the odds in making a first down are better than are the odds in making two successive field goals and for hoping also that X, Y, and Z will happen. If they do not make a first down, then at least they know where they stand. They would have to make an defensive stop, either way.”
You have to kick a field goal unless you’re convinced your defense can’t stop Miami. And while the defense had struggled, that’s where Stoops had to put his faith.
Jeff: “I am hoping someone can explain this to me. Why is it that every single team we play, their receivers are wide open and ours are always covered? We seem to play a soft zone and never make adjustments. Can someone also explain to me why when we have 3rd-and-long we always seem to throw a two- or three-yard pass? All the other teams we play throw the yardage they need for the first down. It just seems to me that once we get in the lead, we go very conservative and we don’t play to win, we just play not to lose. I would love to ask Stoops or any of the coaches these questions. I just don’t understand it. I mean, every time whoever we are playing can throw the ball to a receiver and we are 10 yards or farther away. Are we scared? Our coaches can’t seem to make adjustments during the game. Every other team does, but not the Sooners. Landry Jones played well. Defense needs to quit looking at the cheerleaders and get their head in the game. Offense just needs to play with their eyes open.”
Easy explanation. OU’s receivers aren’t any good. They can’t get open. And Miami’s receivers weren’t running wide open all night. They had three nice touchdown passes, but Harris wasn’t consistently successful.
Sixto: “Disturbing trend, losses against ranked teams and victories at home over lower, over-matched opponents. Sooner Nation is suddenly staring at a five- or six-loss season. Losing to Texas is, in my honest opinion, a foregone conclusion and the rest of the Big 12 schedule now looks daunting. I don’t want to be an alarmist and go off the rails here, but is it time for Stoops to take a long, hard look at his coordinators with an eye towards making some changes? Mack Brown didn’t start succeeding consistently until he changed coordinators; there are numerous examples of head coaches who made changes and saw their fortunes turn for the better. I know Kevin Wilson is considered an eminent offensive mind, and he did coordinate the most prolific offense in college football history last year. And, I know that injuries this season have decimated OU, so Wilson doesn’t have near the arsenal he has enjoyed in the past. So maybe Wilson ought to get a pass, although his playcalling is at times very puzzling. But, I see a consistent pattern of Venables defenses breaking down at critical times and failing to make game adjustments. How many times does OU’s soft zone need to be burned over the middle for Venables to readjust and reassess? How many times must we see Ryan Reynolds, he of the reconstructed knees, mismatched over the middle against a speedy tight end? How many times must we see busted assignments at the most inconvenient times? Are Venables’ schemes too complex for these kids to absorb? Does he need to simplify and let talent make plays? Does Stoops need to be more hands-on with the defense? I know Stoops has won a national title, six Big 12 titles, four title game appearances, yaddah, yaddah, yaddah. But, if OU begins to consistently lose to Texas, and if OU continues to consistently lose to sturdier competition than Tulsa or Idaho State, then Stoops will eventually have to answer for this trend. With each passing year, that 2000 title looks more and more distant.”
The reason the 2000 national title looks more and more distant is because it is. As is 1989-98. But that can alleviated by coaching changes, too. Mack Brown won a national title with offense; 41-38 over USC. He won the Rose Bowl the year before, which some credit with jump-starting the title run, 38-37 over Michigan. And he’s got the same offensive coordinator he’s always had. Mack has fired one defensive coordinator, Carl Reese, who produced no championship defenses.
Alvey: “I am a diehard OU football fan and I have been following them for over 60 years. I have never seen such play calls in all those years. The BYU game was a continuation of the championship game last January against Florida. Almost every analyst has criticized the unorthodox formation of the quarterback and half the offensive linemen, getting set and than raising and staring at the sidelines, waiting for a play or whatever in hell they are looking for, and then resetting for the actual play. If you have ever played any sport that requires you to create intensity, you know that it is a big distraction to fluctuate your intensity. You’re intense and now you are relaxed and then become intense again. Anyhow, it did not work for Oklahoma against Florida and it didn’t work against BYU. But no, Kevin Wilson, went right back to the well just as if in contempt for the critics. He seems to have mastered the old one-point loss. He gets down there in the critical moments, knowing damn well, or at least he should know, that if you don’t score a touchdown, this game is over. I have just covered my rage of the offense. The defense requires even more criticism. They hold for the first two downs and they give up the third down no matter how many yards the opposition needs. I don’t believe that they had one three and out last night. That has been going on for at least the last three years. OU’s coaching must change.”
A change of players would be better.
Kent: “2-2, headed to 6-6 and maybe the Independence bowl.”
Say it ain’t so. Not the Independence Bowl.
Gerry: “Stoops’ Sooners haven’t overcome a fourth-quarter deficit of more than three points since they beat Texas A&M 35-31 in 2000 after trailing by 11.”
Now that’s interesting information, and that’s an indictment of the Stoops era. Gerry didn’t add “and won the game” but that’s what he meant. Sure, OU hasn’t had too many deficits, and some of those bowl losses (and losses to Texas) were blowouts, but still. I think the answer is apparent. Sooner magic has gone AWOL.
Bob: “Your article Sunday hit the nail on the head. DEFENSE. If we had the defense that we were supposed to have we would be undefeated. OU had plenty of time to hold UM and kick a field goal. The bad thing was they ran the football on us. That is unacceptable with our front line. We have a good defense. We have a good offense. We are a good team. We are not a team that can beat a great team or a good team on the road. I understand that you can’t win them all, but it has been a long time since I’ve looked forward to read the paper the next morning. I have accepted that we will not beat Texas and probably one other team on the road this year. So, so sad that this is what our program has become this year.”
Sad? Sad is a marriage breakup. Sad is a loved one dying. Sad is not the points on a scoreboard.
Derek: “At this point, why would anyone advise Bradford to play … unless the NFL has informed them that he needs to play to assuage injury concerns on draft status? As you have noted, Bradford can’t conjure up a better O-line or receivers. And he doesn’t play defense. The injuries have been crazy bad this year, but I am struck by the seeming lack of depth at so many positions this year. In the end, though, that’s now 16-14 away from home since ’05 orange bowl. And that bit about 4th-quarter comebacks, or lack thereof, was equally depressing. It seems there are two settings in the Stoops system: dominance or defeat. Fortunately, the dominance plays out 85 percent of the time. I still can’t shake the feeling though that Stoops is becoming the Lloyd Carr of his generation.”
I guess that’s bad. Quick history lesson. Lloyd Carr coached Michigan from 1995-2007. He went 122-40 in those 13 years and won a national title in Year No. 3. But his records the final 10 years never matched the magical 1997 season: 10-3, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, 10-3, 10-3, 9-3, 7-5, 11-2, 9-4. The Wolverines went to three Rose Bowls and one Orange Bowl those final 10 years, and a bunch of Outback and Citrus bowls. His bowl record those final 10 years: 5-5. Then Michigan decided it had enough of Carr and urged him to retire. It hired Rich Rodriguez and went 3-9.
Alberto had a host of statements and questions: “1. Stoops is in the top 3-4 paid coaches but he is not one of the top 3-4 coaches. 2. I have said this for over four years, Venables should be replaced. The only game we have played good defense is against overrated Missouri last two years. Look at our record in big games and what is the average number of points we allow? 3. We only have two players who have played well on defense this year. Those players are McCoy (not against Miami) and Beal. 4. Why does Auston English start? Alexander would play every down for me. He offers more and gets to the quarterback. English has not been impressive at all since he got hurt two years ago. 5. We haven’t had a true all-American middle linebacker since Bosworth. 6. Our outside linebackers have not played to level of expectation. 7. Franks played 10-14 yards off his man against Miami. And he is suppose to be all-Big 12. Are you kidding me! 8. Our offensive play calling is mind boggling. In the first quarter we moved by passing. When Broyles got hurt we decided that we couldn’t pass! Every long yardage was a delayed draw that fooled no one. 9. Do we have an overrated receiving group? Or do the coaches do not give them a chance to perform? 10. When was the last time we had a true all-American receiver that scared the defense? I can’t remember a receiver that made defenses be scared in decades. Yes Bruce and Clayton were very good receivers but not great. When was the last time we had a receiver go in the first round? Clayton did, but he has not been a world beater in the NFL. 11. Our offensive line is mediocre at best, especially the right side. When USC or Florida lose a player, they put another in and do not change their game plan.”
First question, who the heck is Bruce? Anyway, this is a wonderful exercise. I hope every radical OU fans reads this email and understands how goofy you can sound when you just start babbling. I’ll hit the highlights: 1. If someone wants to put Carroll, Saban, Meyer and Tressel ahead of Stoops, OK. And even Miles. But that makes Stoops no worse than sixth. So if you’re saying Stoops isn’t in the top five, I won’t argue. 2. Tech doesn’t count? Florida doesn’t count? Someone has to tell which are the big games. 3. I doubt that’s true but I don’t feel like arguing. 4. I agree. Play Frank Alexander. 5. So what? OU has had excellent middle linebacker play, and just because no one like Boz has been found is no reason to trash the guys you’ve got. 6. Disagree. Travis Lewis has played well. 7. No, Franks didn’t play 10-14 yards off his man vs. Miami. I wish everyone would quit saying that OU doesn’t mix up its defenses or that OU plays too soft. OU’s pass coverage was just fine vs. Miami. 8. When Broyles went down, OU’s offense was in terrible shape. No Gresham, no Bradford, no Broyles. And yet Wilson called 33 pass plays. Doesn’t seem conservative to me. 9. Overrated is one way of putting it. A better way of putting it is this: OU’s receivers stink. 10. If you’re saying Mark Clayton didn’t scare defenses or wasn’t a great ballplayer, you belong on the funny farm. 11. Oh yeah? When USC loses a great player, they just reload? Then why did it lose to Washington 16-13?
Corbin: “As the Sooner Nation brain trust begins their assault on Kevin Wilson – never mind they sung his praises 300 days ago as he tied NCAA records with 60 points or more – I’m so glad someone points out the obvious. We are minus Tom Brady, Tony Gonzalez, our offensive line and now Broyles. Scoring 20 points against Miami with that problem shouldn’t be the discussion. Three key drives against our all healthy all returning defense should be.”
Ah, well said.
Brad: Some questions to ponder. 1. Did Stoops consider going for two to cut lead to three? 2. Why did OU run consecutive plays to the right on its final drive? OU was having success to the left. 3. After Canes converted 3rd-and-6, why didn’t OU just let Miami score on next play and get the ball back down eight? 4.When is the last big game OU won on the road or neutral site? 5. Any thoughts to moving a player like Franks to offense as well?”
Last things first. I LOVE the idea of putting Franks on offense. Leave him at cornerback, but teach him a couple of deep plays on offense, insert him at the opportune time and surprise Texas with it. Now, back to the questions. 1. I’m sure he thought about it, but that’s a coin flip. When you’re down five after a TD, you have to gamble on whether the other team or your team is more likely to kick a field goal. If Miami had found another field goal and gotten to 24, OU would have been in bad shape at 16 (with a missed 2-pointer). But if Miami stays at 21, then there’s no real difference between 16 and 17, so go for two, because there is a big difference at 18. I can’t criticize not going for two there, but I think it’s the better call. Look at it this way. If you get to 18, and Miami did kick a field goal, you still win with a TD. 3. My brother said the same thing, let Miami score. I never thought of it so I can’t call out Stoops for not doing it. It’s the ultimate act of desperation, and I’m not sure the time would have worked out, anyway. 4. OU’s last big road win was OSU in 2008. Last big neutral-turf win was the Big 12 title game in 2008. Those are big games, and if you say otherwise you’re just being silly.
Steven: “Agree with your observations about the defense needing to make plays. A lot of what ifs like the Dom holding on to the interception and taking it to the house. My two cents is recommending taking the wraps off Landry, pass on first down occasionally, and minimize calling delayed draws like that play is fooling anybody. I hear that Sam and Landry like similar plays, so let us see what Landry can do by letting the reins loose, and let him create positive plays to include first down. I also recommend that the receivers on third down go past the sticks to give us a shot at converting. I support our Sooners and like Kevin Wilson; however, I just believe Kevin should give Landry a few more shots to make plays. He’s proved he can play.”
OU had 28 first-and-tens. OU ran 17 times and passed 11. That’s pretty good balance in my book.
Some fans took exception to my statement that OU surely would have won with Bradford. Mac: “You really think OU could have won Saturday night with a healthy or semi-healthy Bradford? Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly nor Terry Bradshaw at quarterback could have won Saturday night. You must have missed how terrible, penalty prone and ineffective the offensive line and receivers were in Miami. It was one of the worst coached and execution by talented players that I have seen since Blake or Schnellenberger. I totally disagree with you on this point. The rest of the article is good and I agree. Bradford is great, but without an effective offensive line and receiver that can run routes and catch passes he is not going to win the game.”
So you’re saying that Sam Bradford and Landry Jones are equals. Interesting. Very interesting.
Tom: “I was struck by your certainty that OU would have won the game with a healthy Bradford. OU might have won the game with Bradford, but no way is it a certainty. Bradford does not play D and the OU defense never really stopped Miami. The truth is OU was largely in the game because of bad officiating and Miami mistakes. The first pick was like a handoff to the OU defender. The second pick was an underthrown ball that would have been a TD had Harris heaved it into the end zone. The roughing the kicker penalty was a joke. Even the punter realized he had gotten away with an acting job deserving of an Oscar. So it might have been a different outcome, but we will never know and your comment just wreaks of sour grapes.”
All very interesting points, none of which addressed Sam Bradford or Landry Jones. Maybe you’re right. Maybe Miami gets all the calls if Bradford plays. Maybe Miami gets all the breaks if Bradford plays. But I’ll stay with what I wrote. I rode up the elevator after the game with a couple of Miami people. Some employees of the athletic department, who were marveling at Miami’s 3-1 start. One asked the other, would we have won if they had Bradford? The other guy said, “No way.”
Bob: “I believe you do a good job of hiding any personal biases and reporting objectively. However, I was taken back with your statement that OU would have won with Bradford. Pretty bold!?!? Considering how Mr. Bradford performed (sub-par) in his last high profile game (Florida), how can you be that confident? It is not like Jones had a terrible day (18-of-30 and 188 yards, 1 TD with no picks). OK, he fumbled the ball deep in their territory caused by a blitz, but all in all, not bad. I believe the Heisman award is too targeted toward high statistics and that is why you see primarily QBs and running backs win it. I believe Manuel Johnson, Juaquin Iglesias, a healthy Gresham, last years O-Line and the running backs played a large role in Bradford’s ability to win the Heisman last year. For these reasons I am not convinced Bradford could have made even a one point difference. Again, Jones did not play a bad game. ”
You’re kidding, right? You’re pulling my leg. You’re arguing that Sam Bradford would have been about the same as Landry Jones in that game? That the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback isn’t worth one or two points in a big game, compared to a redshirt freshman whose greatest trophy was beating Tulsa? Throw out the Heisman. I’m not here to argue the merits of the Heisman Trophy. But I will defend the merits of a great, experienced, accurate, heady quarterback. I don’t know what one of those is worth. But I know it’s a heck of a lot more than one or two points.
But some fans don’t see the forest on fire. Greg: “Yes, Miami is good and OU has its problems. But, let’s all take a deep breath. OU’s offensive line is improving. Wilson is inept in big games, OU’s biggest malady. The OL opened plenty of holes to win that game. Jones is improving. I sat next to Bernie Kosar on Saturday night. He continually commented, and not on anyone’s prodding, that Jones was the better QB in this game and possesses a bunch of credibility. Not as much as Bradford right now, but Kosar liked Jones’ willingness to maintain his composure and keep moving in the pocket until he found someone. There will be another WR besides Caleb surface. Brown, Murray and even Madu were about three slip and falls from three long jaunts for TDs. OU’s punt game is better than UT’s right now. Our field goal game is becoming dependable. That is enough to win games. Miami has the best running back OU will face all season, including UT and OSU. Miami has the best O-line OU will face. Texas, in contrast, sucks in the running back department. And now, the perspective no one has evened mentioned. With all of their maladies, with Landry learning on the job, with all of its problems, OU could have easily won. Mark this down. OU can beat Texas with Landry Jones regardless of how good or bad he looks against Baylor. OU can smoke UT with Bradford by double digits, and any OU win will totally deflate the Horns and their fans for the rest of the season, and possibly the rest of the decade. They are so crazy as to put this very above average team on the pedestal they now reside. Yes, the dream of a national championship is gone. But OU can win every remaining game, including a BCS bowl game as the Big 12 champion. With two one-point losses, but the return of Slingin’ Sam to lead the team to victory in 10 games, beating Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, OSU and some bowl foe, even the ESPN OU-haters will have to admit how good would have OU been had Bradford not gone down. In all of this, Landry will just get better and Drew Allen/Blake Bell will be around to ensure he will not get complacent.”
I figure the overly-optimistic deserve their say, too.
Douglas: “I saw a stat on ESPN.com that listed win-loss records for the following three coaches in games decided by three points or less: Stoops 4-8, Carroll 5-8, Mack Brown 17-3, including 14 straight dating back to the ’01 Big 12 title game. After hearing questions like ‘Where has the Sooner Magic gone?’, I did some additional research. Barry Switzer’s record in games decided by a field goal or less? 17-1-4, with the lone loss coming in the Lincoln fumblerama in ’78. 17-1-4 games decided by a field goal or less in 16 years. Sooner Magic indeed. It’s clear to me that OU needs to recapture that feeling and confidence that in tight games, no matter the circumstances, OU will find a way to prevail. Rather than looking around waiting for someone else to make a play, be that person. Sooner Magic seems to be largely MIA since the 2000 season of magic.”
You know, OU played no games within three points in 2000. The magic moment in that season was Torrance Marshall’s interception return at A&M, creating a 35-31 final. Two things are interesting to me about this data. 1. Not just Brown’s record in such games, but the total number of games he’s played. Twenty, compared to just 12 for Stoops. I guess it’s explainable by so many OU blowouts; Sooners don’t play too many people close. 2. Switzer’s record and Brown’s record are virtually identical. If you give Switzer a half-win and a half-loss for ties, his record is 19-3 compared to Brown’s 17-3. Yet no one ever talks about Brown’s magic.
Don: “My grades. Quarterback: C. O-line: C-minus. D-line: C. Receivers: C-minus. Running backs: C-minus. An average team. Some pro player, when learning that OU had lost all of last year’s O-line except one, said they could, would, should lose four games. He is proving prophetic. I have watched OU through all of the Wilkinson years. Stoops’ teams are much more exciting to watch. I love college football.”
Yes indeed, Andre Ware deserves some love. And I would agree that Stoops football is probably more exciting than Wilkinson football. But Switzer football was more exciting than them both.
David: “Why not write about the inexact science of this whole stars-given-to-recruits. These are all taken from Scout.com. Jeremy Beal two star defensive tackle. Trent Williams three star. Frank Alexander a three star but only ranked as a tight end. Austin Box four star. Jameel Owens four star. Dejuan Miller four star. I could go on and on, but I find it fascinating – I understand the whiffs in football. You have no metrics to judge guys.”
Excellent points, David. OU’s biggest problems in 2009, other than injuries, are recruiting mistakes. No standout wide receivers. Not enough offensive linemen. Think about this. OU’s only difference-maker at receiver is Ryan Broyles, who got the last scholarship three years ago. Until the midnight hour, the Sooner staff didn’t think he was good enough. That points to recruiting mistakes.
Berry Tramel Chat Recap: Oct. 9
Nebraska takes command in Big 12 North
The Big 12 North football race might be over just as soon as it began. Nebraska’s 27-12 win at Missouri on Thursday night did more than put the Cornhuskers in the driver’s seat to win the division. It made Nebraska the overwhelming favorite. Here’s why:
Iowa State and Kansas State never had a chance, and Colorado, the team with the easiest schedule, has proven to be a dud. So that leaves three real contenders: Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas.
Nebraska has won at Missouri. And while the Huskers have to go to Kansas, on Nov. 16, the Jayhawks have the division’s roughest schedule. The Jayhawks host OU, then go to Texas Tech and Texas. For KU to win the division, they probably need to win two of those three, which will be a tall order.
Nebraska’s crossover games against the South are not nearly as tough. OU and Texas Tech come to Lincoln, and neither are the juggernaut they were a year ago. And the Huskers’ trip to Baylor has softened with the Bears’ loss of quarterback Robert Griffin.
Missouri — which took a 12-0 lead into the fourth quarter Thursday night — is the big loser. The Tigers also have a rugged schedule. They play at Oklahoma State, host Texas and host Baylor. The Tigers also play Kansas on the neutral field of Arrowhead Stadium.
Colorado was a chic pick to win the North — OK, I picked CU — because of the schedule. The Buffs had what I considered two automatic wins (home against Texas A&M, at Iowa State) and two automatic losses (at Texas, at OSU). That means four tossup games, and three of them were in Boulder, vs. Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska. Toss in the road game at Kansas State, and it seemed like the Buffs had a fighting chance to win three of the four. Do that, and Colorado would have been 5-3. The tiebreaker might have fallen Colorado’s way.
But Colorado has looked so bad going 1-3 out of conference, no way can the Buffs contend without a total makeover. It looks like Nebraska has regained the reins of the Big 12 North in Bo Pelini’s second season as coach.
College Football Week 5: Train wreck in Oklahoma
The 2009 college football season arrived in Oklahoma with great anticipation. The Sooners and Cowboys figured to be major players, and their star status was never higher.
Eight players were considered college superstars. Either all-Americans or first-round NFL draft choices.
Of those eight, only three have not been cursed, and those three - OSU’s Russell Okung and OU’s Trent Williams and G.K. McCoy - are linemen, whose performances are hard to evaluate.
The others? Hurt or ineligible or largely ineffective. It’s been a train wreck of a season.
Sam Bradford? Hurt.
Dez Bryant? Ruled ineligible by the NCAA.
Jermaine Gresham? Season wiped out by injury.
Kendall Hunter? Hurt.
Zac Robinson? Looks hurt, though he has played to moderate performance levels.
What seemed to be a magical season has gone bust at both schools.
TEN BIGGEST LOSERS OF THE WEEK
10. Howard Schnellenberger: The Colonel’s Florida Atlantic Owls lost 30-28 to Wyoming, about 30 minutes north of where two of his former employers, OU and Miami, were playing the game of the day. Florida Atlantic fell to 0-4 and with two straight road games looming, a disastrous season approaches in Boca Raton.
9. Playing patsies: Texas A&M went 3-0 by playing a non-competitive schedule. But Arkansas brought the Aggies to Earth with a 47-19 stomping that shows Mike Sherman he’s got a long way to go in making A&M a Big 12 force.
8. Nevada parity: Nevada routed UNLV 63-28, its fifth straight victory in a series that ought to be much more contested than this.
7. Larry Fedora: The Southern Miss coach lost a game (30-17 to Alabama-Birmingham) and a quarterback (Austin Davis is sidelined for the season. Suddenly, the 3-2 Golden Eagles are struggling in Fedora’s second year.
6. Butch Davis: Two weeks ago, North Carolina was in the top 25. But now the Tar Heels have to be considered one of the worst teams in a BCS conference. What else can be said after a 16-3 home loss to lowly Virginia? Butch Davis’ rebuilding job is going slowly.
5. Michigan’s revival: The Wolverines were hoping to be 5-0 going to Iowa for what would be the national game of the day. But Michigan State survived a late Michigan rally and won 26-20 in overtime, beating the Wolverines twice in a row for the first time since 1967.
4. Bob Stoops: First, Stoops couldn’t win the big one. Now he can’t win the close one, after Miami’s 21-20 victory over Oklahoma pinned the Sooners with their second one-point defeat this season.
3. Jeff Tedford: California was mentioned as a possible Pac-10 threat to Southern Cal. The last two weeks, the Golden Bears have been routed 42-3 at Oregon and 30-3 at home against USC. Cal’s Rose Bowl drought, dating back to the 1958 season, continues.
2. Bobby Bowden: A 28-21 loss at Boston College dropped Florida State to 2-3 and intensified the call for a change. It seems unlikely that Bowden can keep his job past 2009.
1. Kevin Sumlin: College football’s hottest coach turned lukewarm after a 58-41 loss at UTEP. Houston was on track to contend for a BCS bowl berth. Instead, the Cougars were ambushed by a team that had lost at home to Buffalo (not the Bills) and 64-7 at Texas the previous week.
CUBAN CUISINE
In four trips to Miami, I’ve never really found a restaurant that just demands I return. On my first trip, that OU-Florida State Orange Bowl, I tried some Cuban food. Didn’t really thrill me.
But this trip, we stayed across from a little deli, and I went over three times. One of the trips, I tried a Cuban sandwich.
It’s a hot ham and cheese with some roasted pork, Swiss cheese, pickles and mustard.
Excellent. I’ll have another.
REALITY RANKINGS
10. Auburn: I don’t expect this to last.
9. Virginia Tech: Hokies could win out.
8. South Florida: Road win at Syracuse a meaningful accomplishment this year.
7. Boise State: Broncos need to quit scheduling Cal-Davis.
6. Southern Cal: Pac-10 looking a little tougher.
5. Iowa: Hawkeyes a weird team. Play the rumdums close but wins going away at Penn State.
4. Miami: No one in Dade County expected the Hurricanes to be 3-1. Now they will win a bunch.
3. Cincinnati: Who votes for a Cincy-Boise State national title game?
2. Alabama: Don’t rule out a national title for Nick Saban.
1. LSU: Two straight SEC road wins will get you places.
BEACH BOYS
Miami/Fort Lauderdale has two things going for it. Excellent beaches and abundant freeways. Don’t discount either.
Miami is like Dallas in that you can’t even keep up with all the freeways. I think I drove on eight freeways in four days. The bad traffic came only during rush hour, though there was a backup on a toll road late Friday night.
Do not underestimate the value of abundant freeways. They are a quality of life issue.
But the beaches trump the freeways. I stayed on Fort Lauderdale Beach last January, and last weekend I stayed on Miami Beach. Superb.
Beautiful sand, warm water, generally no knuckleheads. Where we stayed, you had to rent the chairs under umbrellas - two chairs for $30, though they always cut you a deal - but it was worth it.
I’m 48 years old and never enjoyed swimming in the ocean until this trip. Maybe it’s because the Florida saltwater in early October is a lot warmer than in early January. Maybe it’s because my wife made sure I had plenty of sun block this time. But whatever, the beaches were a blast. Really, the beaches are what make Greater Miami. Nothing else really to get excited about.
And Miami Beach clearly is the best part of Greater Miami. A beautiful boardwalk stretches along the beach itself, the art deco architecture gives the city a retro feeling and character, and characters, abound.
A quick civics lesson. Miami Beach is an incorporated city of almost 100,000 people, sitting on a barrier island between Biscayne Bay and the Atlantic. Cross the bridge and you immediately realize you’ve entered a different kind of place.
We stayed at a Courtyard a couple of blocks south of the Fontainebleau, the historic resort where OU traditionally has stayed on Orange Bowl trips but did not stay this time.
When I travel to Miami or Chicago or San Francisco, I’m never ready for the number of foreign tourists. It’s stunning. I promise, probably a third of the people I encountered on Miami Beach were foreigners. Which stands to reason. If Americans go off to roam Ireland and Italy and Brazil, I don’t know why Europeans and South Americans can’t come here.
BIG 12 STINKS
Big 12 football stinks in 2009. Don’t let anyone tell you differently.
Big 12 schools scheduled a paltry 11 non-conference games this season against fellow BCS league opponents. The Big 12 won only four: OSU over Georgia, Missouri over Illinois, Kansas over Duke and Baylor over Wake Forest.
OU lost to Miami, Nebraska lost to Virginia Tech, Colorado lost to West Virginia, Texas A&M lost to Arkansas, Iowa State lost to Iowa, Kansas State lost to UCLA and Baylor lost to Connecticut. But at least those schools played someone.
Texas and Texas Tech didn’t bother playing anyone from a fellow BCS league, which makes them more of the problem than the teams that lost.
As the season progresses, you will hear Big 12 coaches talk big about their conference. Don’t buy it. You prove your worth in non-conference games. Everything else is just talk.
Perhaps the Big 12 can save some face in bowl season. But until then, the Big 12 ranks a clear last among the major conferences in 2009.
The records so far from each conference against other BCS leagues: SEC 7-3, Pac-10 6-5, ACC 6-6, Big East 6-6, Big Ten 4-5, Big 12 4-7.
RATS!
Land Shark Stadium, where the Dolphins, Marlins and Miami U. play, is a solid ballpark. Easy to get in Miami Gardens, northwest of downtown Miami, surrounded by parking lots and freeways. And it remains relatively functional, considering it’s 20 years old.
But the stadium has some unwelcomed residents. During the game, a rat ran across the feet of at least one OU fan.
TEN BIGGEST WINNERS OF THE WEEK
10. Golden Tate: His quarterback, Jimmy Clausen, gets all the press, but this Notre Dame receiver is quite the special player, too, with nine catches for 244 yards and a TD in Notre Dame’s 37-30 overtime win over Washington.
9. Donald Buckram: Quick. Who does this tailback play for? Never mind. Nobody holds you accountable for not knowing this UTEP slasher, who rushed 32 times for 262 yards and four touchdowns in the Miners’ 58-41 stunner of Houston.
8. Stanford: Jim Harbaugh is doing one heck of a coaching job on the Peninsula. The Cardinal beat UCLA 24-16 to go 2-0 in the Pac-10, 4-1 overall.
7. Wake Forest: The Deacons ended North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson’s NCAA record streak of 379 passes without an interception and beat the Wolf Pack 30-24. Don’t look now, but Wake could again win the ACC’s Atlantic Division, since Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech are in the Coastal Division.
6. Temple: Who knew the Owls still played football? But Temple beat Eastern Michigan 24-12 for its second straight Mid-American Conference win. Coach Al Golden’s Owls are 2-0 in the league and should be 3-0 when they go to Toledo on Oct. 24.
5. Gamblers: Ball State coach Stan Parrish (yes, the guy who preceded Bill Snyder at Kansas State) believed in his team and put the pressure on himself, ordering a 2-point conversion after the winless Cardinals drew within 29-28 on a touchdown with 42 seconds left. And Ball State was rewarded, as Miquale Lewis ran for the conversion. Alas, Toledo’s Aaron Opelt threw a 51-yard TD pass 15 seconds later to give the Rockets a 37-30 victory. But compare Parrish’s confidence to that of new Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads, whose team scored a last-minute touchdown to draw within 24-23 of Kansas State. Rhoads kicked to go into overtime, but K-State blocked the attempt.
4. Coaches on the hot seat: Not every coach in trouble is circling the drain. Wisconsin’s Bret Bielema raised his record to 5-0 with a 31-28 win at Minnesota that sets up a showdown against Ohio State. And Maryland’s Ralph Friedgen, whose team had lost to Middle Tennessee and almost lost to James Madison, knocked off Clemson 24-21.
3. Noel Devine: A year ago, this West Virginia speedster seemed a budding star. We saw why in a 35-24 victory over Colorado: 22 carries, 220 yards and a touchdown.
2. Gene Chizik: Some wondered why Auburn would hire a guy who went 5-19 at Iowa State. They remember the 5-19 part and forget the Iowa State part. Hard to win in Ames. But now Chizik already has equaled his number of Iowa State wins, after a 26-22 win at Tennessee that makes the Tigers 5-0.
1. LSU: The Tigers slumbered through September against mediocre competition and should have lost at Mississippi State in Week 4. But the Bayou Bengals roared at Georgia, with a come-from-behind, 20-13 victory that stamps Les Miles’ team as a legit threat to beat Florida this week.
Strange signals from Bradford
I’ve got to admit, I have no idea what to make of Sam Bradford’s statement that surgery is an option.
He goes from the brink of playing vs. Miami — sharing snaps all of last week — to talking about if, not when, he might return to quarterbacking Oklahoma.
Bradford said any decision he makes will be based solely on his ability to play this season and will have nothing to do with his NFL draft status. Bradford also said there was plenty to play for, despite OU’s two losses, and he’s right about that.
It’s a silly mentality that a season loses all meaning if a squad is eliminated from national-championship consideration. Heck, as Bradford said, you can’t even accept the idea that the BCS title game is out of reach, even if it’s true. LSU reached the title game — and won it — with two losses in 2007, one of them after Thanksgiving.
But Bradford’s health remains a mystery. How could he still be unsure if he can even return this season, if his health was good enough last week to get Bob Stoops to Thursday before announcing Landry Jones as the starter.
Perhaps the Bradford camp asked for a little slowdown on the Sam comeback, to make sure. Kent Bradford, Sam’s dad, told cbssportsline.com last week that ideally, Sam would have two more weeks off. Then it became partially true. Maybe he’s waiting for Texas, next week. Bradford certainly isn’t needed this week against Baylor.
If you want my best guess, I’ll say Texas will be Bradford’s return. That’s what I thought all along, until the practices last week made me think Bradford just might start in Miami. But after last week and Bradford’s comment Tuesday, anything sounds possible.
OU-Miami: a possession that haunts the Sooners
Everyone is talking about OU’s final offensive series against Miami, when the Sooners threatened but settled for a field goal. Here’s what I think was the killer series for the Sooners, who lost 21-20.
Second possession of the second half. Miami had just scored, one play after Landry Jones’ fumble, to take a 14-10 lead and commandeer all momentum.
But the Sooners came back. Mossis Madu returned the kickoff 21 yards to the OU 34-yard line, which on this night was excellent field position for the Sooners. Then Jones completed a 3rd-and-10 pass to Cameron Kinney for 12 yards. And OU got a pass interference penalty on 3rd-and-15. Finally, Jones sneaked for two yards on 3rd-and-1. OU had a first down at the Miami 33.
Then it all fell apart. Jones threw two straight incompletions. Chris Brown lost two yards on a 3rd-and-10 draw play. Worse yet, Trent Williams was called for unnecessary roughness, sending the Sooners back to the 50. Then Brown mouthed off, and 15 more penalty yards, this for unsportsmanlike conduct. Suddenly, OU went from first down in field-goal range to 4th-and-42 from its 35, one yard past where it had started THREE FIRST DOWNS AGO.
Fourth-and-42. Tress Way, who otherwise had a superb night punting, didn’t even get his subsequent punt 42 yards. It went 38 yards, to the Miami 27, the same general real estate OU had been just a moment before. Eight plays later, the Hurricanes had a touchdown and a 21-10 lead.
It was a runaway mine train of momentum for Miami, much of which could have been squelched with a scoring drive. Jimmy Stevens, bless his soul, suddenly is a decent kicker. From the Miami 33, even six or seven yards would have set up a 43-yard field goal. Maybe a 14-13 game.
Instead, OU played uphill all night, with one of the worst series of plays in recent Sooner history.
Everyone wants to talk about the fourth quarter. For good reason. But the third quarter beat the Sooners.
Analyzing OU’s play-calling
As always, an OU defeat means the masses call for heads to roll. Last year, it was mostly Brent Venables. This year, mostly Kevin Wilson.
The entire notion is ridiculous and makes fans look juvenile. The idea that Kevin Wilson can’t coach offense or call plays, well, I don’t know how to respond. The guy coached an offense that in 2008 set an NCAA record for points, and now that he’s playing without his three best playmakers — Sam Bradford, Jermaine Gresham and Ryan Broyles — somehow changing coordinators is going to make a big difference.
But that’s not to say that play-calling can’t be analyzed. What does a coordinator do when he’s missing weapons and in a hostile environment? I’ve gotten several emails from readers who wanted Wilson to open up the playbook a little more.
In general, that’s madness. You’ve got a young quarterback, in his first road game, against a really good team, suddenly without his favorite receiver, an offensive line that tends to hold a lot and doesn’t block great when it doesn’t hold, and the solution is to open up the playbook? Start winging it around more?
The idea is floating around that Kevin Wilson has turned all Chuck Long and calls running plays on virtually every first down. It wasn’t true under Long, and it’s not true under Wilson. Wasn’t true Saturday night.
OU ran 28 plays on first-and-10: 17 runs and 11 passes. That seems like pretty good balance to me. Overall, any down, you don’t want a 50-50 split with Landry Jones at quarterback. Overall, OU called 39 running plays and 33 pass plays. I don’t see where throwing more passes was going to get the Sooners anywhere.
There were few people to catch the ball and few qualified blockers. Every pass play was flirting with disaster, as we saw when Jones hit and fumbled at his own 11-yard line, turning the game permanently Miami’s way two plays into the second half.
But there’s one place where the Sooners could have mixed it up more, and that was on those first downs.
Of OU’s 17 runs on first down, eight made at least four yards. Four yards, to me, is the line of demarcation. Four yards or more, you can work with. Three yards or less, defense has the advantage. So OU was below 50 percent efficiency on first-down runs. Now, the Sooners had some big plays out of the run game. Chris Brown’s 48-yard run after the Sooners were pinned at the 1-yard line led to a field goal. DeMarco Murray had two solid first-down gains on the final drive. But generally, OU needed more production out of its first-down runs.
Meanwhile, the Sooners threw 11 times on first-and-10. Seven were completed, with the shortest gain six yards, plus OU received a pass interference penalty. That’s eight successful plays out of 11, a 72 percent rate. Cameron Kinney’s TD catch came on first-and-10.
What does it all mean? The Sooners weren’t predictable on first down; no one could reasonably say they knew what was coming, with that 17-11 ratio. But the success rate shows more first-down passing would have been advantageous to the Sooner cause.
Think about it. First-down passing relieves pressure from Jones, who played a solid game. Sort of like BYU. Not spectacular. Not awful. Just OK. Which is about all you could ask of him in either setting. So relieve pressure from Jones, mix in some draw plays (which Wilson did, mostly with success) and revert to the run in other situations.
Now let’s look at third downs, where the game got downright freaky. OU faced 17 third downs. Fourteen of those snaps were third-and-long, at least seven yards needed. Three were third-and-short (needing one, two and three yards). That’s right, OU went the whole game without facing third-and-4, third-and-5 or third-and-6. You can watch a thousand football games and never see that.
Anyway, on the three third-and-shorts, OU ran it twice and made it, passed once (third-and-3) and failed. That third-and-3 was no small play; late in the third quarter, the Sooners had grabbed some momentum back and trailed 21-17. OU got the ball at its 22, and Jones completed a 6-yard throw Kinney. Then Chris Brown gained a yard, bringing up 3rd-and-3. Jones threw incomplete to Mossis Madu, thanks to heavy pressure (Miami had an excellent pass rush most of the night). Punt. Huge series for Miami. OU had a 2nd-and-4, all the momentum and then punted, because neither a run nor a pass worked, which supports my general thesis: What exactly was Wilson supposed to call?
Anyway, let’s now look at third-and-longs. Fourteen of them. OU converted four, which is probably about normal for most good teams. Nobody really makes a living on third-and-8. Anyway, here’s what’s interesting. OU ran the ball on third-and-long three times, and made it once. Murray dashed 12 yards on a third-and-8. OU threw on third-and-long 11 times and converted three. Think about that. OU’s success rate running the ball on third-and-long (albeit a small sample) was 33 percent. OU’s success rate throwing the ball on third-and-long was 27 percent.
That’s just amazing to me. And I think that speaks to the quandary OU found itself in with Landry Jones and Cameron Kinney and James Hanna. The Sooners had to find a way to keep the defense off balance. I think, in retrospect, that way was more first-down passing and more third-down running.
Of course, let’s go back to personnel. Think about what Chris Brown or DeMarco Murray must have felt like every time they went into the huddle. Where’s Sam? Where’s Ryan? Where’s Jermaine? Where’s Loadholt or Robinson or Cooper or Iglesias? Who are these guys?
I don’t think play-calling cost OU the game. In fact, to even suggest it is ridiculous. When your options are so limited, there are no good answers. But I think the Sooners can learn a little from the Miami experience, at least until Bradford returns.
Emails in on Landry & Miami
The new emails are in, and lots of talk about Landry Jones and Miami.
Bob: “I guarantee you that if Landry Jones goes down in Miami, they will be suiting Bradford up as quick as they can. This depending on the score, of course. Why would you take someone to an away game if they aren’t going to play? I love the idea that Sam isn’t playing. The Big 12 championship and a BCS bid is so much more important than this game. Unless Landry turns into a Sam, we cannot win the Texas game without Sam.”
There’s actually a couple of golden nuggets, unintended, in this email. First of all, it’s a solid question. Why do you take an injured player to a road game? I think I know the answer. I think it’s because he’s Sam Bradford and he’s a team leader. Maybe he’s one of those guys who makes everyone around him feel better. I’m not trying to turn this into Tim Tebow worship, but maybe Bradford has a calming effect on not just the other QBs, but all his teammates. But I disagree with the premise that Bradford will play. Bob Stoops said he wouldn’t, so to pull some Willis Reed now will make OU look bad and question everything Stoops has said about watching out for Bradford’s health. The other nugget: is the Big 12 title and a BCS bid much more important than this game? It’s a great question. And I have to say no. OU’s six Big 12 titles in nine years is a fabulous streak, but OU’s national-championship drought - including three title losses - is an equally disturbing streak. I say the Sooners are all in on winning the national title, which starts with this game.
Gary: “It’s grossly unfair to compare Landry Jones after two games with Sam Bradford after two years. Landry looks a lot more effective than Rawls, Bomar, Thompson, Halzle, Grady, Walls or whoever runs the scout team. Nine TD passes in 2.5 games? Bradford wasn’t Bradford after only two games. He gained all that wonderful experience and the ability to read defenses by doing it for two years, in games and practice against one of football’s finest defenses. It’s unfair to the Sooner nation to rip the man’s potential ‘not now, and probably not ever’ which comment one can only hope nobody pointed out to Landry Jones. Most of us would much prefer to have his confidence bolstered, not sabotaged. I still love you, brother, but this was not a fruitful comment.”
I come not bearing fruit. I come bearing truth. Jones’ nine TDs are hollow. Idaho State and Tulsa don’t count for much. And it’s time everyone realizes that a QB like Bradford is special. It’s not automatic that the next OU quarterback is going to be as good as Bradford.
Jim needed some OU-Miami history. “1. Who coached Miami in 1975? 2. Did Miami have a chance to win that 1973 game, 24-20 in Norman?”
You’ve never heard of him. Carl Selmer, Miami’s coach in 1975-76, was the ‘Cane coach when OU survived the U. 20-17 on a Friday night in the Orange Bowl. In 1973, when Miami came to OU and lost just 24-20 to an epic Sooner team, the ‘Canes were coached by Pete Elliot, a former Bud Wilkinson assistant. And yes indeed, in ’73, Miami had a chance to win. The ‘Canes led 20-7 at halftime. Tinker Owens’ 52-yard TD catch with 3:08 left in the third quarter, and Rick Fulcher’s 30-yard field with 4:34 left in the game gave OU some breathing room. Miami missed a 45-yard field goal with 10 minutes left that would have given it the lead.
Charles: “Can you remember the last time that OU went on the road and defeated a top 20 opponent with our backup quarterback? I think you have to go all the way back to 1987 when Charles Thompson beat the Huskers up in Lincoln 17-7.”
If you don’t count Texas (Jason White in 2001), I think that’s right.
Ron: “I am shocked to read that Bradford won’t start. I don’t question Stoops. I just knew he would be ready to play. Does Stoops think we can win without him and wants to save him for the run through the Big 12?”
To cut straight to the truth, yes. That’s exactly what Stoops thinks. Here’s my theory. If Landry Jones had fell off a curb this week and sprained an ankle, I think Bradford would start vs. Miami. He would hand off about 50 times, throw maybe 10 passes and OU would try to win 13-10. But Jones is a decent quarterback (maybe better than that) who gives the Sooners a chance to win.
Stan: “I for one believe that Landry is a very adequate replacement for Sam, who ought to sit the season out, get that shoulder completely healed and rested and enter the next draft. His tight end sure has the right idea. After 80 years of watching college football evolve, I strongly feel that the old ‘do or die for the alma mater’ has become hypocritical. Our Texans play their Texans and only a few of the players are in college for the education. It’s the minor leagues of the NFL, it should be acknowledged as such and the players should get a decent livable salary in return for the big bucks they earn for the universities. Right now, they are virtually indentured servants.”
What’s worse. Hypocrites or cynics? I tend to vote for cynics. For the record, the three Sooners mentioned by Stan are not Texans; Bradford is from Putnam North; Jones from Artesia, N.M.; and Jermaine Gresham from Ardmore. And if anyone raises huge tons of money for universities, it’s the general student population, who fuel huge budgets that dwarf the athletic allotment.
Kermit, a Boise State fan: “I just finished reading your reality rankings and have only one issue with it: you have ranked Cincinnati higher than BSU, but we played Oregon when they were ranked and Cincinnati played Oregon State when they weren’t. You said this list was based on what the teams have done. I think BSU could beat Cincinnati, but we probably won’t find out for sure any time in the near future, though.”
Easiest question I’ll get all day. Cincinnati has three solid wins - at Rutgers, at Oregon State, home vs. Fresno State. Boise State has two solid wins - at Fresno State, home vs. Oregon. Cincy’s most impressive win (at Oregon State) is more impressive than Boise State’s best win (Oregon). Always tougher to win on the road.
Bill wrote about my scheduling plan to save college football: “The reason scheduling is putrid is because of the BCS. If there were a playoff, OU could schedule USC, Alabama, Ohio State and Florida non-conference as long as winning the Big 12 would get them into the playoffs. The revenue would jump because the networks would pay more for a diet of OU-Alabama matchups instead of OU-Chattanooga, not to mention the increased revenue for what a playoff system would generate. But cronyism, greed. and bribery run the NCAA, and the most important issue is that the money mostly goes to the wrong entities. It’s kind of a microcosm of health insurance, where over a nickel of every dollar of gnp goes into corporate greed.”
I personally feel that health insurance is an unfixable problem - technology and our ability to heal has surpassed our ability to pay for it. But college football is easily fixed. Have a playoff system in which ONLY conference champions are included. That keeps the regular season paramount but encourages good non-conference schedules, plus it gives everyone the playoff they want.
Spencer: “OK, Mr. Tramel, I just cannot hold it in any longer. Can we talk man to man? First, let me say that I am a huge fan of your work. I’m enthralled with your ability to dismantle a brick-walled Jim Traber argument. I admire your statistical reasonings and overall amazing knowledge of sports. As you can see, I’m a big fan. I’m in your corner. I’m a regular guy, 29 years old, married for seven years and have three wonderful children. I love sports, particularly college football. I feel like I can relate to you. So, are you ready? Berry, please do something about your hair. It’s just out of control. As I mentioned, I believe I can relate to you, I have terrible hair, double-crown, whole nine yards. For folks like you and me, there is something called a buzz-cut. Or a fade from a number one to a six. Come on, Berry, please it would do you wonders. My wife is a barber, and she could fix you up, but I doubt you’d want to travel to south of Seminole. But I had to at least offer. So, what do you think? Are you laughing by now? I’m just a guy looking out for another. And of course, haircut or not, I’ll still be a fan.”
Hey, I sort of like my hair.
Steve wrote about my report on minority coaches: “I couldn’t agree more that the percentage of minority coaches in D-I football is embarrassingly low. But the guys you mentioned did sub-par jobs: Blake, Willingham (0-12 last year), Simmons. They, like white guys with the same record at BCS schools, were fired. What is the answer? More hired to begin with I guess. I know at the high school level there just aren’t a lot of black coaches around here. And it sure isn’t because they are being overlooked for white coaches. Maybe at my level, they are smart enough to use their degree for something more profitable than being a high school football coach.”
Good email. Because it raises a fantastic point. Why aren’t there more black coaches on the high school? That’s a bigger scandal than in college. My only quibbles are these: Willingham didn’t do a bad job at Notre Dame. His record was virtually identical to Bob Davie’s, yet Davie got five years and Willingham was canned after three. And Willingham’s record was virtually identical to Charley Weis’, who has kept his job. And Bob Simmons never has gotten credit for the job he did at OSU. Maybe OSU had to fire Simmons after six years and a 30-38 record, but Simmons stabilized the program and infused it with talent that allowed Les Miles and eventually Mike Gundy to start winning big.
James also wrote about the lack of black coaches: “This is an outrage, and we need more exposure. I was hoping you’d comment on the innovative, racist way that schools like Texas have found a way around this problem: designating a successor coach years in advance. Auburn passed on Turner Gill, who would have made them BCS Championship contenders, in view of the white guy from Iowa State. I wrote a letter to the president of Auburn.”
It’s not the kind of institutional thinking that plagues society. Let’s do what we’ve always done. It’s not overt racism. Covert, I’d say.
