Who will win the Big 12 … South?
I asked Bob Stoops who will win the Big 12 North. He laughed and said, “Who’s going to win the Big 12 South?”
That, my friends, is an example of optimism. Stoops isn’t giving up, not yet, on catching the Longhorns and the Cowboys, who play Saturday night for South Division supremacy after the Sooners seemingly have been kicked to the curb.
You can’t blame Stoops for standing in swinging. Twice in the last three years he’s lost to Texas and still won the Big 12 title. But 2009 will be a harder road for such a script.
OU needs Texas to lose twice. It’s happened before and I suppose could happen again, but not likely, in this watered-down conference that might be as bad as it’s ever been. Heck, even if OSU beats Texas on Saturday, the Cowboys might need someone else to beat Texas.
OU has a puncher’s chance at a three-way tie. If OSU beats Texas and OU beats OSU, and the teams win out the rest of the way, then presto, under three-way tie. But this time, Texas almost certainly would advance as the South representative, because of the BCS standings. The Longhorns would be ranked higher than both OU and OSU under such a scenario.
So the Sooners need Texas to lose somewhere else. Either at Baylor on Nov. 14, or home vs. Kansas on Nov. 21, or at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night. You can’t rule out an upset by the Aggies –they’ve done it before — but it’s not very likely.
At least the Cowboys have their fate in their own hands. Beat Texas and win out, and OSU is the South champion. Of course, winning out is doubly difficult for State, since the Cowboys have to play in Norman on Nov. 28. The Sooners have lost just two games at Owen Field since the John Blake days.
Let’s give OSU, Texas and OU victories in all the other games in question. What kind of chance does each have?
Let’s say OSU has a 35 percent chance against Texas. I think that’s about right. Let’s say OSU has about the same chance against OU. Let’s say Texas has a 90 percent chance against A&M.
So, Texas’ chance of winning the South is 81.5 percent. OSU’s chances: 12 percent. OU’s chances: 6.5 percent. Tall, tall odds for anyone besides the Longhorns winning the South.
Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel.
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Comments
As usual great stuff, but let me propose this, OU, Texas and OSU all end up in a three way tie with 1 conference loss a piece (O-State beating UT in Stillwater), if Texas drops the ball and loses to UCF and the Sooners and Cowboys win out with the Sooners beating the Cowboys in Norman, does OU wind up higher ranked in the BCS than Texas and OSU?
Still Believing in Sooner Magic
Your math is off. Assuming that there is 0 chance that Texas loses at home to UCF and KU or at Baylor (you appear to have assumed this, and, either would be a collosal upset), then the only way for OU to win the Big 12 South is if OSU beats UT, OU beats OSU, and A&M beats UT. You assigned a 35% chance of OSU beating UT, a 65% chance of OU beating OSU, and a 10% chance of A&M beating UT. You put the three together, and you find that OU has a 2.275% chance of winning the Big 12 South.
OSU needs to beat UT and have OU lose another game maybe at Nebraska or TTech. Then a Cowboy loss in Norman doesn’t matter they would hold the tiebreaker with Texas.
It all starts this Saturday. If OSU loses then Texas will hold the tiebreakers both Sooners and Cowboys.
If OSU beats Texas and only loses to OU, UT would get the nod, OU has 3 loses already so the tiebreaker eliminates them early.
Divisional Tiebreakers: The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1 The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2 The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3 The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of fi nish (4, 5 and 6)
4 The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5 The highest ranked team in the fi rst Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
6 The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
7 The representative will be chosen by draw.
Still holding out for the typical screw up from Texas. An OSU butt whoopin in Norman on November 28th. Then they would need to go with strength of schedule (just wishing)and of course OU would win out since Texas & OSU play obsolete teams until conference play.
I think your math should be more like this: 100% Texas. ou doesn’t stand a chance, and neither will OSU after Texas puts a 20+ point beatdown on them Saturday night. Write it down, and Hook ‘Em Horns.
I think the Ags have a better chance against Texas than that. I’d even say they have a better chance than OSU does. The last few years OSU has blown 21+ point 2nd half leads over Texas. A&M (other than last year) always plays up and makes it a game. This year’s A&M has a lot more firepower than either the 2006 or 2007 teams that both beat Texas. The only question for the aggies is the performance of the O Line. If OSU wins this week, it opens the door for everyone, even in unlikely situations Tech and A&M because OSU could easily lose to Tech, @ISU or @Oklahoma.
It is true that OU played the tougher non-conference schedule. Of course that’s only because Arkansas and Utah cancelled on UT. Bravo on those two loses. When OU posts a signature out of conference win(like UT did at Ohio State) then you can open your mouth. Have fun in the Weedeater Bowl Sooners.
“Let’s say Texas has a 90 percent chance against A&M.”
I’m an Aggie and totally agree with this statement. I also totally agreed with the cute little graphic on espn.com that said the red raiders had a 93 percent chance against A&M. We shall see come Thanksgiving.
Aggies, a 10% chance against Texas? Excellent! Coming in under the radar. Just like the Tech game, the bigger the upset the better. Aggies would love nothing more than ruin tu’s chances of going to the Championship game.
Hahaha!!! Kris and FaithfulAg04, Texas is NOT Tech!!! 100% chance that the Longhorns beat the Aggies on Thanksgiving night!!! Hook’em Horns!!!
Cosmo,
If OSU beat Texas and loses to OU, but OU loses a second Big 12 game then OSU and Texas tie at 7-1 and OU is 3rd at 6-2.
Then OSU does advance due to “If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative”
I have to laugh at the OU fans trying to predict the % of a OU title, you have none!!! LOSERS !!,I HAVE TO LAUGH at Trammel,
seriously how long have you been on the OU bandwagon? are you the bus driver?
you’ve lost all sense of ….. atleast apperciate what is giong on in thee state that has a chance, by the way,
tell Rhode to stick to OU as well, he’s the worst homer of all!!! I’m tired of the biased OU oklahoman. really rhode , i can see you coming from a mile away with your back- handed compliments of the OSU program. we don’t need tou to write about us, just label yourself as the sooner you are, and write with all the afffection you have for their fine program, cowboys fans do not need your input, cowboy’88
Why is everyone assuming that OU will win out? Because they looked good in beating a team that just got done losing to Colorado? Seriously if OSU beats UT and loses in Norman they would still go because I really do not see OU winnning out. Take off the crimson glasses.
No crimson glasses at all. OU will be favored in every game they play the rest of this season. And in the three games played in Norman–OU will be a solid to prohibitive favorite in each. The pattern for OU in the Stoops Era post Texas game is always to go on a run through the back two-thirds of the conference schedule.Nebraska is struggling mightily at QB right now and a win in Lincoln looks to be attainable. Leach and those crazies in Lubbock are impossible to figure out—but our defense has a solid concept of what Leach does. The game in Lubbock is probably the scariest of our closing games.
Although the three way tie is enticing—O State will probably come to Norman with the same 8-3 record the Sooners will have. Being Dez-less is okay when you play the likes of Rice, Grambling, Texas A&M, Missouri and Baylor, but not against the likes of the Texas and OU defenses, plus the game at Ames is a classic trap game for the Pokes the week after Texas.
MJ
you have to realize, regardless of what the ranks are at the end of the year, texas vs. a&m is almost always an even game (albeit last year, we received an asswhooping…). there are few rivalries in college football which really show their colors on gameday. the “red river rivalry” is only a rivalry because those two teams have dominated since the creation of the bigXII. texas vs a&m is one of the oldest and most intense of rivalries, even if one team is no.1 on the bcs poll and the other is unranked. it doesn’t matter. come thanksgiving, especially at Kyle, there will be a good game
Interesting percentages. I have a question. If OSU beats Texas, does the chance of beating OU go up? Say a 25 -17 win over UT, what is the chance of beating OU then? Also since OU has one of the longest home winning steaks going, and we all know streaks always end, who win end the home winning streak?
Texas with one loss to OSU would win out to play in the Big XII championship game over a two loss OSU team (losses to Houston and OU) and a three loss OU team, although UT was unimpressive over OU and should have beaten a Bradfordless Sooner team by 20. If Bradford had played the whole OU-UT game the Sooners would have beaten UT by 15. If Bradford and TE Jermaine Gresham had both stayed healthy the Sooners would probably have been the clear number one team in the nation, since it would have beaten BYU, Miami and UT by at least 60 combined rather than losing to the three by a total of 5 points away from home. Remember OU had red zone problems that would have gone away with Gresham in the line-up. Could you imagine the results if last years Sooner offense had combined with this years defense? Wow!
OU did beat a Kansas team that lost at Colorado. Of course, OU beat KU on its home field while impressively holding KU to one late TD, while KU scored over 30 in its road game loss in Boulder. Colorado can pull off upsets at its home in the thin air of Boulder.
Well, sure Texas has a big edge,but in sports you just never know. The potentially funny thing in all of this is if O State beats Texas by any amount, stays below the Horns in the pursuant polls and then loses to the Sooners on Nov. 28th. OU wins out and voila—we have deja vous and another three way tie in the Big 12 South.Only this time without the miscreant Leach. Now correct me if wrong, Berry, but Mack told all of us in no uncertain terms last season that head to head is always the end all tiebreaker. You agreed. So explain to me how an O State team with the same identical conference record as Texas and the head to head tiebreak Mack embraces would not get the nod for the Big 12 South.
I think this scenario would be hilarious. Texas didn’t vote to change things at the most recent Big 12 meetings if I recall.
Of course, as an OU fan, I realize this mythical tri-Big 12 South title is all that’s left on the table in this season of excessive bad fortune. But if you’re a competitor–this is what you sell to yourself and to your team to finish the season strong.
Good for Bob Stoops.
I agree with Stoops. Teaxs beat us by a hair. We hope O State beats Texas…and we then we beats O State to claim a share of our third straight Big 12 South crown.
We’ll take the high ground and suggest O State go to Glendale and let Mr. Pickens enjoy his moment. Texas can go the Cotton Bowl and play Les Miles…and the Sooners head west to San Diego (America’s premier city) and settle a little matter with Oregon.
Unlikely? Probably.
But you just never know.
MJ