Comments on: Mack Brown: Tip-toeing through the tulips http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/2009/10/27/mack-brown-tip-toeing-through-the-tulips/ Thoughts from The Oklahoman Sports Columnist Berry Tramel | NewsOK.com Mon, 22 Apr 2013 20:41:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5 By: Bill Stripling http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/2009/10/27/mack-brown-tip-toeing-through-the-tulips/comment-page-1/#comment-10287 Bill Stripling Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:55:45 +0000 http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/?p=1468#comment-10287 David: I agree that a player’s past performance and mental state can effect the outcome of his success at a subsequent event. But that is not what I am talking about.
If you are betting on this week’s UT OSU game, are you betting on OSU because you believe that their past eleven losses means that they are “due” a win? That the odds have somehow shifted in their favor because of the 11 losses? Or do you bet on the team you feel has the best chance of winning due to superior skilled players and coaching?
Granted, the OSU players will be motivated because of those 11 losses, but Texas will be equally motivated because of the chance to play in the BCS Championship. In contests of skill, the effect of random variables like motivation, emotion, dropped passes, turnovers, etc. tend to cancel each other out over the course of a game. So you are left with the relative skill levels of the teams involved. I’ll bet my money on superior skill every time.

]]> By: david c http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/2009/10/27/mack-brown-tip-toeing-through-the-tulips/comment-page-1/#comment-10257 david c Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:06:42 +0000 http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/?p=1468#comment-10257 Bill,

I disagree that the outcome of the game is an independent event on past results. Say you’re playing golf and you 3-putt 5 or 6 holes in a row. On the next hole you have downhill 25 footer that breaks left to right about 5 feet. If you leave the first putt 3 feet short, the memory of those last few holes can have a big effect! Dice and coins don’t have memory, people do.

]]> By: Bill Stripling http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/2009/10/27/mack-brown-tip-toeing-through-the-tulips/comment-page-1/#comment-10239 Bill Stripling Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:48:15 +0000 http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/?p=1468#comment-10239 Berry:

You and Mack Brown should know better.
The Law of Averages does not exist. It is equivalent to the Gambler’s Fallacy, which states that if a series of independent events have had the same outcome ( e.g., Texas beating OSU 10 or so straight times ) then the probability of OSU winning the game this weekend is much greater than 50%.
Not true.
The probability that Texas or OSU will win this weekend is totally independent of any prior outcomes.

Best regards,

Bill stripling, math geek

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