Mack Brown: Tip-toeing through the tulips
The Austin American-Statesman’s Kirk Bohls asked Mack Brown a simple question Monday. Do you believe in the law of averages?
Mack said yes. Well then, Kirk responded, doesn’t that concern you Saturday vs. Oklahoma State, which has been snakebit vs. the Longhorns and is due a little luck? Isn’t it about time an OSU program that has been ridiculously close in this series finally beats the Longhorns?
Well, no, Mack said. “I’d rather be in our position than theirs.”
As soon as he said it, Mack regretted it. He wondered how that quote would play on Stillwater bulletin boards. The truth is, Mack didn’t mean anything by it and was simply being honest.
Mack started stammering. “I like my wife, she likes living in Austin,” he said, trying to humorously explain his position comment. Then he turned analytical. “I always look at facts,” Mack said. “Look at stats, conference stats more than out of conference. I look at depth charts. Those all are things that are in our favor over time.”
Hey, Mack. It’s not complicated. Texas is in a better position for two reasons. 1. The Longhorns have been better than OSU over these last 11 years, when the ‘Horns have won every game in the series despite some wild shenanigans. UT has finished with a better record than the Cowboys every single year. 2. Texas is in a much better position this year, unbeaten and ranked third, while the Cowboys are 6-1 and ranked 14th.
And finally, it gets down to this. OSU, and most every other program in the Big 12, is trying to be like Texas, in terms of winning and support. That kind of status is what OSU and Missouri and Tech aspire to.
None of that really has anything to do with the law of averages. I agree with Mack. I believe in them, too. Keep playing close games with OSU, and Texas will start losing some of them. Maybe Saturday.
Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel.
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Comments
Bill,
I disagree that the outcome of the game is an independent event on past results. Say you’re playing golf and you 3-putt 5 or 6 holes in a row. On the next hole you have downhill 25 footer that breaks left to right about 5 feet. If you leave the first putt 3 feet short, the memory of those last few holes can have a big effect! Dice and coins don’t have memory, people do.
David: I agree that a player’s past performance and mental state can effect the outcome of his success at a subsequent event. But that is not what I am talking about.
If you are betting on this week’s UT OSU game, are you betting on OSU because you believe that their past eleven losses means that they are “due” a win? That the odds have somehow shifted in their favor because of the 11 losses? Or do you bet on the team you feel has the best chance of winning due to superior skilled players and coaching?
Granted, the OSU players will be motivated because of those 11 losses, but Texas will be equally motivated because of the chance to play in the BCS Championship. In contests of skill, the effect of random variables like motivation, emotion, dropped passes, turnovers, etc. tend to cancel each other out over the course of a game. So you are left with the relative skill levels of the teams involved. I’ll bet my money on superior skill every time.
Berry:
You and Mack Brown should know better.
The Law of Averages does not exist. It is equivalent to the Gambler’s Fallacy, which states that if a series of independent events have had the same outcome ( e.g., Texas beating OSU 10 or so straight times ) then the probability of OSU winning the game this weekend is much greater than 50%.
Not true.
The probability that Texas or OSU will win this weekend is totally independent of any prior outcomes.
Best regards,
Bill stripling, math geek