Triple crown or .400? Which will come first
The All-Star break seems as good a time as any to debate which will come first in baseball: another .400 hitter or another triple crown winner?
I staged a survey on the radio Monday, and 20 callers checked in. The triple crown carried the vote 12-8, but I’m surprised it was that close. To me, the triple crown is much more attainable than is a .400 season.
The Twins’ Joe Mauer leads the majors with a .373 average, but Mauer, as great as he is, doesn’t seem like a prime candidate. He’s a career .323 hitter, though at 26 he’s just hitting his prime.
No ballplayer has reached .400 since Ted Williams in 1941. In recent decades, a few hitters have taken their stab at .400. George Brett batted .390 in 1980. Rod Carew hit .388 in 1977. Larry Walker hit .379 in 1999. Tony Gwynn was batting .394 in 1994 when the season stopped and never restarted.
But here’s another way to look at it. Wade Boggs, a simply wonderful batsman, never batted higher than .368. So asking any current player to reach .400 is a tall order, considering batting averages haven’t spiked the way power numbers have in the last 20 years.
In this homer-crazy era, strikeouts also have gone through the roof. Even a skilled hitter like Mauer has his share. He averages about 55 whiffs a season and a little fewer than 500 at-bats. So let’s say over 480 at-bats, with 55 strikeouts, Mauer would have to hit .452 when making contact to reach .400 overall. Think about that for a moment.
Meanwhile, triple crowns have become rare. We had five in 26 years, 1942 through 1967. Ted Williams in ’42 and ’47, Mickey Mantle in ’56, Frank Robinson in ’66 and Carl Yastzremski in ’67. Baseball’s triple crown had become like horse racing’s triple crown; not common, but not rare.
But now we’ve gone 42 years since Yaz.
Yet Albert Pujols remains a solid contender. He leads the National League in home runs (32) and runs batted in (87) and is fourth in hitting, at .332. Florida’s Hanley Ramirez leads at .349. It’s still a long shot for Pujols, but it’s not crazy talk to think Pujols could win the NL batting title and stay atop the home run and RBI list.
Here’s a stat that will make you think differently of Pujols. Guys most mentioned as .400 contenders are Ichiro Suzuki and Mauer. Ichiro’s career batting is .332. Mauer’s is .323. Pujols’ is .334.
Pujols is the best hitter in the game today, not even counting his power. He’s also the best power hitter. That’s a prime recipe for a triple crown winner.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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Comments
The odds against a .400 season are much greater. It will only happen if someone misses a good portion of the season due to injury (or whatever) and barely qualifies for the plate appearances. It actually kind of surprising the Triple Crown hasn’t happened more frequently, so many near misses. Regardless, RBIs are partially a product of your surroundings and don’t have much siginificant statistical impact to me.
In general, the triple crown is a much more difficult achievement than hitting .400. One can argue whether or not we are still in the “steroid era”, but one cannot deny that we are still in a home run era. Today’s power hitters not named “Pujols” are simply incapable of leading the league in batting average. That Pujols can excel in all areas of hitting is what makes him such a special talent. I can think of no other current MLB hitter who can be mentioned with a straight face as capable of leading the league in BA and HR’s. The triple crown is simply the gold standard of offensive excellence. While hitting .400 is proving equally as difficult in today’s game, it is a notch below a triple crown.