Cowboys streaking into contention
About two weeks ago, someone asked me OSU’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament. I said 10 percent. They countered with 20 percent, but no big difference, really. All uphill.
Today, those Cowboy chances have risen to about 40 percent, and they will nearly double if OSU can beat Texas in Stillwater on Saturday. OSU beat Colorado 76-55 Wednesday night in Boulder to raise its Big 12 record to 7-6.
The common theory was that if the Cowboys can get to 9-7, they would make the NCAAs. It’s still a solid theory, though other factors are in play, notably the Big 12’s overall strength. Will the Big 12 get five teams in the 65-team tournament?
Texas also has risen — notably its victory over Oklahoma — and the Longhorns are in the top 25 and are 8-5, with some marquee victories (UCLA, OU, Villanova, Wisconsin). UT goes to OSU and Kansas, with a home game against Baylor in between. Beat the slumping Bears, and Texas should be in either way.
But OSU will be hard to overlook if it gets to 9-7. The Cowboys were 31st in the RPI at the beginning of the week and probably will be in the 20s by tipoff. If OSU beats Texas and Kansas State, the Cowboys will have a solid resume’.
The Longhorns have not been a great road team. They lost at Nebraska and Arkansas. They lost big at Texas A&M and OU. They went to overtime at Colorado. They won close at Baylor and won big at Texas Tech. So I give OSU a slight favorite’s nod Saturday. I give OSU an even better chance of beating K-State, which is an interesting team but not great. Let’s say OSU’s chances are 55 percent against Texas, 70 percent against KSU. So that’s about a 38.5 percent chance of beating them both.
Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel.
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