Don’t count out OSU from NCAA berth
Three Big 12 men’s teams — Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri — are assured of NCAA Tournament berths. All are ranked in the top 15, all have 20 wins already and all have five losses or fewer.
But who else will make the NCAA from the Big 12? Here is the current standings, throwing OU, KU and Mizzou, plus Colorado, Iowa State and Texas Tech, which have no hope of being invited:
Kansas State 17-8, 6-5: current RPI 76
Texas 17-8, 6-5: current RPI 40
Nebraska 15-8, 5-5: current RPI 64
Oklahoma State 15-9, 4-6: current RPI 38
Texas A&M 18-8, 4-7: current RPI 52
Baylor 16-9, 4-7: current RPI 54
Any team that sinks into double-digit losses is playing with fire, and by Selection Sunday, all the other Big 12 hopefuls will be into double-digit defeats, with few sporting any kind of momentum.
OK, to guess what will happen down the stretch, let’s assume a few things. Let’s say any time these six hopefuls play each other, the home team wins. Any time they play one of the top three, they lose. Any time they play one of the bottom three, they win. Of course, every game won’t play out that way, but it’s not a bad place to start. And it’s giving the six teams the benefit of the doubt, since it’s more likely that they would lose at home to an OU, KU or Missouri than they would win at a Colorado, Iowa State to Tech.
Anyway, if that scenario plays out, here are the records going into the Big 12 Tournament:
Kansas State 21-10, 9-7: Decent chance of making the NCAA, though the RPI will not be strong.
Texas 19-11, 8-8: Trouble. The ‘Horns have a good non-conference record, but their RPI would continue to fall.
OSU 20-10, 9-7: Probably in at this record. The RPI is solid.
A&M 21-10, 7-9: In trouble. Losing conference records are a millstone.
Neb 18-11, 8-8: Just not enough to get the committee excited.
Bay 19-11, 7-9: Same curse as A&M.
Isn’t this a little surprising? OSU’s chances are not bad. Of course, the Cowboys have some tough games. They’ve got to win in Lubbock on Wednesday night and later in Boulder, and they’ve got to beat Texas, Baylor and Kansas State in Gallagher-Iba Arena. Any stumbles could jeopardize the Cowboys. They’ve got the most toss-up games left.
But the opportunity is available. If OSU can win its winnable games, the Cowboys go into the Big 12 Tournament with solid credentials. Heck, under this scenario, OSU would be a No. 4 seed and get a bye in Oklahoma City.
OSU’s conference losses don’t seem so bad anymore. Home losses to Missouri and OU? Both are in the coaches poll top 10. Road losses to Kansas, Baylor, Texas and A&M? Acceptable.
Win this stretch of games, and the Cowboys are right in the thick of the discussion. It’s all about taking care of business.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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