Super Bowl strategy
You know, I agree with Tom Brady, who was skeptical of Plaxico Burress’ prediction of a 23-17 Giants victory in the Super Bowl. Seventeen points for the Patriots? Not bloody likely, as the United Kingdom journalists in Arizona would say.
Here’s the truth about the Patriots. They will score on about half their possessions. That’s a phenomenal rate in the NFL. Simply phenomenal, but also very dependable. They won’t all be touchdowns, some will be field goals, but New England will score. That offense is too good.
So here’s what New York must do. Control the clock. Run the ball. Shorten the game. Limit the Patriot possessions. Let me explain.
If New England gets eight possessions, then that’s four scores and probably three touchdowns: 24 points. If New England gets 10 possessions, that’s five scores and probably 27 points. If New England gets 12 possessions, that’s six scores and probably 34 points. The Giants conceivably could win this game 27-24, or maybe 28-27. But no way the Giants win 35-34.
So how do the Giants limit possessions? By grinding the ball, the way they did with a 92-yard drive against Tampa Bay to seal that playoff game and they way they did by controlling the ball for 40-plus minutes of the 63 minutes played in Green Bay. By running the ball and Eli Manning throwing short passes to Burress and Amani Toomer. And also by not letting Tom Brady throw home run passes. No deep balls to Randy Moss. Do what Jacksonville and San Diego did to stay in the game with the Patriots; limit Moss to one (short) catch in each game. Make other Patriots beat you and take more time doing it.
If the Giants can produce that strategy, they can keep it close, and either team could win a close game. But let New England score quickly, or have short, fruitless drive themselves, and this Super Bowl could get away from the Giants.
-------------Berry Tramel can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including AM-640 and FM-98.1. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter @BerryTramel. Visit Berry's website here.
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