BAM’s 2010 Oscar predictions
“The Hurt Locker”
Starting at 7 tonight, I will be live-blogging along with the 82nd annual Academy Awards, which are airing live on ABC.
Follow along as I chronicle the gown trends, long-winded acceptance speeches, myriad montages and, oh yeah, actually giving of awards.
Here are my predictions for tonight’s Oscars:
Best picture
Brandy says: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ much-ballyhooed, ratings-driven decision to expand the best picture category to 10 nominees created a perfectly split field between $100-plus-grossing movies — “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Up” — and their small but mighty counterparts — “The Hurt Locker,” “An Education,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man” and “Up in the Air.” Appropriately, the category comes down to a David vs. Goliath matchup between Kathryn Bigelow’s low-budget “The Hurt Locker” and James Cameron’s mega-blockbuster “Avatar,” with Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” possibly playing spoiler. A truly revolutionary visual spectacle, “Avatar” boasts a less-than-Oscar-caliber story. Tarantino’s twisted World War II revenge fantasy “glouriously” won me over as my favorite film of 2009. But Bigelow’s nerve-thrumming and thought-provoking Iraq War drama was a close second and carries explosive momentum into the Oscars.
Should win: “Inglourious Basterds.”
Will win: “The Hurt Locker.”
Best actor
Brandy says: Morgan Freeman maintains his astounding run of Oscar-nominated portrayals — with “Invictus,” he’s been nominated five times and won once — while Jeremy Renner and Colin Firth boost their careers with their first nods. For the second time in as many years, George Clooney gives a nuanced performance to carry a remarkable film only to be upstaged by an acclaimed thespian making the showing of a lifetime. In 2008, it was Daniel Day-Lewis as an unhinged oilman in “There Will Be Blood”; this time, Jeff “The Dude” Bridges breaks hearts, croons country songs and will finally win an Oscar on his fifth try for his turn as a washed-up singer with a “Crazy Heart.”
Should and will win: Jeff Bridges.
Best actress
Brandy says: Veteran actress Dame Helen Mirren becomes a force of nature with her wonderfully human turn as author Leo Tolstoy’s wife in “The Last Station,” but too few voters will have seen her Oscar-worthy performance. For newcomers Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan the honor is just being nominated. Always-impressive two-time victor Meryl Streep effectively transformed herself into Julia Child in an entertaining portrayal that never resorted to caricature. But the academy electorate can’t resist the kind of game-changing performance Sandra Bullock scores with as the spine-steeled mama bear in the fact-based football story “The Blind Side.”
Should win: Helen Mirren.
Will win: Sandra Bullock.
Best supporting actor
Brandy says: Poor Christopher Plummer: After more than half a century of acting, he finally gets his first Oscar nod, and he hasn’t a prayer of winning. In fact, pity all the runners-up because this hasn’t really been a contest since Christoph Waltz’s well-mannered but menacing Nazi used pipe-smoking and genteel conversation to berate a poor French farmer into confessing all in the opening scene of “Inglourious Basterds.” “Wait for the crème,” Waltz’s Col. Hans Landa later instructs over an intimidating snack of strudel. The wait is over: Waltz is the crème.
Should and will win: Christoph Waltz.
Best supporting actress
Brandy says: Penelope Cruz, Maggie Gyllenhaal and especially the “Up in the Air” tag-team of Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick deserve kudos for their pivotal performances. But again, Oscar voters cannot resist a career-altering performance. And rarely has one been as memorably scorched onto movie screens and cinephiles’ brains as comedienne Mo’Nique’s deadly-serious, stomach-curdling turn as the brutally abusive mother in “Precious.”
Should and will win: Mo’Nique.
Best director
Brandy says: As with the best picture contest, this category essentially amounts to a two-person race between Kathryn Bigelow with her volatile Iraq War thriller and James Cameron with his pioneering sci-fi epic. (Cue tabloid-style, high-school-level gossip: AND they used to be married. Yawn.) Cameron already has made movie history, with “Avatar” becoming the first film to cross the $700 million domestic box-office mark. Now, it’s Bigelow’s turn. Known for making movies that defy the dreaded “woman’s film” or “chick flick” classifications, Bigelow already has become the first female filmmaker to win the directing prizes from the BAFTA Awards and Directors Guild of America. On Sunday, she will become the first woman to capture the Oscar for best director.
Should and will win: Kathryn Bigelow.
Original screenplay
Brandy predicts: Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds.
Adapted screenplay
Brandy predicts: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner for “Up in the Air.”
Animated feature
Brandy predicts: “Up,” but would prefer that “The Secret of Kells” or “Fantastic Mr. Fox” win.
Documentary feature
Brandy predicts: “The Cove.”
Animated short film
Brandy predicts: “Wallace and Gromit in A Matter of Loaf and Death.”
Live-action short film
Brandy predicts: “Instead of Abracadabra.”
- BAM
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