Entertainment writers make Oscar picks
“Slumdog Millionaire”
The entertainment staff at The Oklahoman and NewsOK – Gene Triplett, George Lang, Matt Price and me - made our predictions of who will win Sunday night at the Oscars in today’s Weekend Look section of The Oklahoman.
Remember, I’ll be live-blogging the Academy Awards starting at 7 p.m. Sunday night and going until the last long-winded acceptance speech is done as they air on ABC.
And the winner is …
Oscars: Our critics predict who will get hardware
“Citizen Kane” fell victim to it in 1942. “Goodfellas” took it in the gut in ’91. It’s called voter unpredictability. It’s how “Rocky” sucker punched “Taxi Driver” in 1977 and “Private Ryan” wasn’t saved from the shower of Oscar affection over “Shakespeare in Love” in 1999. Could the heavily favored “Slumdog Millionaire” slink home Oscar poor in another unforeseen upset, or is it far ahead of the pack? Here’s how The Oklahoman‘s critics are calling the outcome of the 81st Academy Awards showdown this Sunday.
Best picture
Gene says: “Milk” and “Frost/Nixon” were powerful and important historical dramas, and “Benjamin” pushed many emotional buttons with its gentle, “Gump”-like life lessons, but Danny Boyle’s colorful Dickensian fairy tale of a Mumbai orphan’s climb from rock-bottom poverty to quiz show fame and fortune has slowly pulled ahead of Brad Pitt’s golden-hued vehicle to become the odds-makers’ pick. Still, Holocaust-themed films often find favor with Academy voters, and the recent death of its much-loved executive producer Sydney Pollack could cause “The Reader” to kick “Slumdog Millionaire” to the side of the red-carpeted road in an unexpected turnaround.
Should win: “Milk.”
Will win: “Slumdog Millionaire.”
George says: Oscar wins can come down to politicking, and a massive campaign on behalf of “The Reader” could steal the thunder from the leader, “Slumdog Millionaire.” But Danny Boyle’s film has momentum, and because it continues to speak to so many viewers, it’s hard to imagine that Academy voters have not been similarly swayed. This is a tight category – no losers in sight – but no other nominee has their air of phenomenon around it. This should give “Slumdog” the edge.
Should and will win: “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Brandy says: Rarely has such a conventional story – the old rags-to-riches underdog tale – been told in such singular and captivating fashion as “Slumdog Millionaire.” The other nominees feature top-shelf acting and directing talent operating at peak levels. But Danny Boyle’s deserving crowd-pleaser built up momentum at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards and seems poised to dance away – Bollywood style, of course – with the grand prize.
Should and will win: “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Matt says: “Slumdog Millionaire” is still the favorite, and should be the winner, barring last-minute politicking for “The Reader” or a surge of support for “Milk.” The other two movies I thought were the best of 2008, “The Dark Knight” and “The Wrestler” aren’t nominated.
Should and will win: “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler.”
Best actor
Gene says: Frank Langella nailed Tricky Dick without resorting to exaggerated caricature, Richard Jenkins had his rare moment to shine in “The Visitor,” Brad Pitt was soothingly low-key as “Benjamin Button,” and Mickey Rourke redeemed himself by finding the soul of a misspent man who resembled his real-life self in “The Wrestler,” snagging a Golden Globe for his efforts. But Sean Penn’s brilliant transformation as doomed gay activist Harvey Milk will grab the gold.
Should win: Mickey Rourke.
Will win: Sean Penn.
George says: Not too long ago, a Rourke win for “The Wrestler” seemed preordained – Rourke tapped into emotions and behavior that felt like documentary, not drama. But Sean Penn’s recent win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for playing San Francisco politician Harvey Milk was just as deserving – Penn believably transforms into the late activist. All nominees were worthy of mention, especially Langella, but it will come down to the two greatest method actors of their generation.
Should win: Mickey Rourke.
Will win: Sean Penn.
Brandy says: It’s great to see often unnoticed actors Frank Langella and Richard Jenkins receive kudos for their stellar work. Brad Pitt and Sean Penn both delivered stalwart starring turns, but theirs aren’t even the best or most memorable performances in their respective films (Taraji P. Henson steals the show in “Benjamin Button” and the overlooked James Franco in “Milk.”) Everyone – especially Hollywood – loves a good comeback story, and they don’t get much juicier than Mickey Rourke’s compelling life-imitating-art performance in “The Wrestler.”
Should and will win: Mickey Rourke.
Matt says: Nice performances for all involved, but I think it comes down to Sean Penn as gay activist Harvey Milk in “Milk,” and Mickey Rourke as past-his-prime grappler Randy “The Ram” Robinson in “The Wrestler.”
Should win: Mickey Rourke.
Will win: Sean Penn.
Melissa Leo in “Frozen River.”
Best actress
Gene says: Anne Hathaway finally proved her dramatic mettle as a fragile rehab recidivist in “Rachel Getting Married,” then backslid with the dreadful “Bride Wars,” while too few people caught Melissa Leo’s “Frozen River” turn and Angelina Jolie seemed a bit too restrained in “Changeling.” Kate Winslet seems due for her heart-wrenching reading in “The Reader,” but Meryl Streep’s tough, no-nonsense nun will no “Doubt” receive voters’ blessings.
Should win: Anne Hathaway.
Will win: Meryl Streep.
George says: While Anne Hathaway delivered a transformative performance in “Rachel Getting Married,” voters often give young actors a pass if nominated too early in their careers. “Rachel” proved that Hathaway will be back, if she can just put the kibosh on her dumb romantic comedies. In “Changeling,” Jolie seemed to be chumming the waters with obvious Oscar bait, Leo has a better shot at an Independent Spirit Award, Winslet has plenty of both deserved and paid-for buzz, but few people come away from “Doubt” without being in awe of Streep’s performance as a tough, judgmental nun.
Should win: Anne Hathaway.
Will win: Meryl Streep.
Brandy says: Melissa Leo gave one of the bravest and boldest performances of 2008 as a desperate single mom in her long-awaited first lead role in “Frozen River.” Unfortunately, she probably will have to settle for the old “it’s an honor to be nominated” sentiment, and at 26, Anne Hathaway will have to wait for her hardware. Angelina Jolie hits all the right emotional buttons as a mother searching for her missing son, but she can’t match the sheer force of Meryl Streep’s hard-nosed nun in “Doubt.” However, it’s hard to imagine that voters will send Kate Winslet home empty handed for the sixth time, considering her pitch-perfect, unsentimental starring turn that holds together “The Reader.”
Should win: Melissa Leo.
Will win: Kate Winslet.
Matt says: Ingénue Anne Hathaway has a chance for “Rachel Getting Married,” and you can never completely count out Meryl Streep, but Harvey Weinstein and “The Reader” will likely get a win here for Kate Winslet.
Should win: Anne Hathaway.
Will win: Kate Winslet.
The late Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight.”
Supporting actor
Gene says: Josh Brolin (“Milk”), Robert Downey Jr. (“Tropic Thunder”), and especially Michael Shannon (“Revolutionary Road”) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Doubt”) are heavyweight contenders all, but the late Heath Ledger’s chilling transformation into the Joker in the tragically snubbed “The Dark Knight” will win by sentimental knockout.
Should and will win: Heath Ledger.
George says: Regardless of circumstances, Heath Ledger would win this award – this performance conjured evil in its darkest and most irrational state. By unofficial Academy rules, Ledger’s passing makes a win nearly as certain as, well, death. While it would be refreshing to see Downey win for a complicated comic role, only one Joker can win this year.
Brandy says: Even if he hadn’t died tragically and all too young, Heath Ledger would still be the frontrunner for his unhinged and truly scary performance as anarchist the Joker, who “just wants to watch the world burn.” But his untimely passing means Hollywood heavy hitters Philip Seymour Hoffman, Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr. will have to settle for silver because Ledger has the lock on the gold statuette.
Should and will win: Heath Ledger.
Matt says: Here’s where “The Dark Knight” gets its win. The late Heath Ledger put on an amazing performance as The Joker, and the Academy will reward it.
Should and will win: Heath Ledger.
Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler.”
Supporting actress
Gene says: Marisa Tomei’s aging pole dancer and sympathetic female counterpart to Mickey Rourke’s broken down hero in “The Wrestler” really ripped hearts and rounded out the film’s emotional punch. Amy Adams (“Doubt”), Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona”), Viola Davis (“Doubt”) and Taraji P. Henson (“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”) are all worthy opponents, but Tomei’s Cassidy was a long overdue career best.
Should and will win: Marisa Tomei.
George says: Justice would be served if Marisa Tomei won for her role as stripper Cassidy in “The Wrestler” – the actress is proving fearless in recent roles, and a statuette would make up for the years of irrational suspicion surrounding her Oscar win for “My Cousin Vinny.” But Viola Davis’ brief but indelible performance as a mother facing a complex moral dilemma in “Doubt” had a concentrated power that pushes buttons with the academy.
Should win: Marisa Tomei.
Will win: Viola Davis.
Brandy says: Once again, this category seems the toughest to call. Marisa Tomei’s daring turn as the aging stripper who befriends Micky Rourke’s grappler most deserves the win. Taraji P. Henson, one of my favorites, might take home the only major prize out of the 14 nominations for “Benjamin Button,” or Penelope Cruz might win one for beloved writer-director Woody Allen’s “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” But if the “Doubt” actresses don’t cancel each other out, voters will probably reward Viola Davis’ brief but powerful performance (opposite Meryl Streep no less) as a mother caught in a complicated quandary.
Should win: Marisa Tomei.
Will win: Viola Davis.
Matt says: Any one of the five could win. Probably the two “Doubt” actresses cancel each other out. Penelope Cruz is probably the favorite for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” as supporting actresses in Woody Allen films have won before. Marisa Tomei’s excellent performance as a single mom and stripper in “The Wrestler” deserves recognition.
Should win: Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
Will win: Penélope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Danny Boyle on location for “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Best director
Gene says: Gus Van Sant (“Milk”) and Stephen Daldry (“The Reader”) lucked out with some great lead performers, while David Fincher’s “Benjamin Button” was all style and little substance and Ron Howard’s “Frost/Nixon” was all substance and no style. In the absences of Clint Eastwood (“Gran Torino”), Christopher Nolan (“The Dark Knight”) and Darren Aronofsky (“The Wrestler”), not to mention their films in the noms, Danny “Slumdog Millionaire” Boyle deserves the gold for delivering one of the most original, feel-good surprises of the year.
Should and will win: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire.”
George says: David Fincher proved he could do an epic mainstream film, and Gus Van Sant created a heartfelt biopic that was bigger than just the character at its center. “Frost/Nixon” almost worked better as journalism than as entertainment, but Danny Boyle’s direction of “Slumdog Millionaire” gave the story a kinetic spark, shuttling viewers between nightmare and romantic dream so smoothly that they become one.
Should and will win: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Brandy says: Stephen Daldry and Gus Van Sant’s films benefited more from outstanding performances than anything, David Fincher showed he could craft an old-fashioned epic rather than his usual dark fare, and Ron Howard turned a pivotal moment in history into a compelling drama. But Danny Boyle, with a cast of unknown and novice actors and no previous experience working in India, truly transports viewers to the bustling, crowded streets of Mumbai and into the harrowing and ultimately life-affirming tale of “Slumdog Millionaire.”
Should and will win: Danny Boyle.
Matt says: Danny Boyle is the odds-on favorite here for “Slumdog Millionaire.” David Fincher again sublimated visual style to the story in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (as he did in “Zodiac”), but this doesn’t look to be his year. Gus Van Sant for “Milk” only has a chance if there’s a surge of Best Picture voting for the film. Ron Howard for “Frost/Nixon” and Stephen Daldry for “The Reader” would seem to be long shots, but both have reasons to be considered: Howard’s Oscar history and Daldry’s Weinstein backing.
Should and will win: Danny Boyle.
Original screenplay:
Gene and Matt say: Dustin Lance Black for “Milk.”
George says: Martin McDonagh for “In Bruges.”
Brandy says: Courtney Hunt for “Frozen River.”
Adapted screenplay:
Gene, Brandy and Matt say: Simon Beaufoy for “Slumdog Millionaire.”
George says: John Patrick Shanley for “Doubt.”
“WALL-E”
Best animated feature:
Gene, George, Brandy and Matt say: “WALL-E.”
Best documentary feature:
Gene, George, Brandy and Matt say: “Man on Wire.”
-BAM
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